[babaoriley]

OK, so the whole "tanking" theme has been taken a tad too far on this board, and I'll accept some of the blame, as my initial post on the subject was regarding solely Milwaukee and to a lesser extent Boston. So, I'll try to keep that angle out of play in this:

1) Orlando is clinging to that 8th seed in the East.
2) Milwaukee is 1-9 in its last 10, with its sole win coming against Boston at home (as I've said, at home you have to at least give the appearance that you aren't tanking---fans deserve quality).
3) Mike Redd's last 7 games:
3/28 @Dallas- inexplicably yanked for a long stretch of the 3rd-4th quarter (he was 14-18 when he sat down in the late third, finished 14-19) Bucks blow a dd lead and lose by 2.
3/30 @Charlotte- Redd plays 25 minutes, Bucks lead by 3 at the half, Bucks turn the ball over 24 times, Bucks lose by 16
4/1 Washington- Redd sits with "Left Knee Pain", Bucks lose by 14 at home
4/3 New Orleans- Redd's knee mysteriously heals (for one night) as he scores 27 meaningless points in an 18 point loss (their second straight home loss of 14+)
4/4 Boston- Redd sits with knee pain again, Skinner sits with an ear infection, Mo Williams sits with knee pain, Bogut and Villanueve out... Pierce (sore elbow) and Jefferson(bruised knee) (and Scalabrine) out for Boston... Milwaukee manages to win an ugly one by 9 and appease the few fans at home who actually give a crap. Aided, in part, by a 38% shooting night from Boston.
4/6 @ ATL-Redd sits, as do Skinner and Williams (and of course, Bogut and Villanueve) and a decimated Hawks team beats a decimated Bucks team by 13.
4/7 Knicks- Redd returns (and plays 40 minutes after sitting 3 of the past 4---pretty ballsy if your franchise player really does have a knee injury considering your team is out of the playoff race and you've already committed to sitting him) Knicks eek out a 5 point OT win, thanks to shooting 7% better from the field, 13% better from the arc, and 10% better from the stripe.

What does this add up to? A valiant effort (for 24-36 minutes at least) from Milwaukee at home and an Orlando cover. Only thing that worries me is that the line is so off. An 8 seed laying 3 points to a team that is A) decimated by injuries (Bogut, villanueve still out---who knows what Redd will do) B) lacks talent and presents an obvious mismatch (Gadzurik against Dwight Howard???) and C) MAY be in full-on tank mode.

I already laid 4 units on it, and am considering throwing another 4. Only thing that worries me is that this seems like the squarest of square plays and the line is egregiously off ( i would have had Orlando by 6+ in this situation---considering all of the above)...

EDIT: So I couldn't entirely leave the tank angle out.

[tevari]

Only way I could play this game as well, but am staying away. Good luck.

[dodif]

magic suck
good luck

[babaoriley]

dodif, thanks for the insight. Apparently, the Magic suck but you have no opinion on Milwaukee sucking. I may change my play now, based on your analysis.

[dodif]

dodif, thanks for the insight. Apparently, the Magic suck but you have no opinion on Milwaukee sucking. I may change my play now, based on your analysis.

i've been betting professionally for 14 years

i dont bet on bad teams. thats just common sense for me.

i thought everyone here already learned there lesson on the magic.

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/basketball...tml#post247839

but i can take the time elaborate. sorry

u r playing the right side but I have no faith in jameer "****in st joes" nelson and grant over the hill. Dwight howard always gets points but he isnt a winner yet. Milwaukee is like the Bobcats and Orlando. Dont **** with em. erractic and unpredictable. I would like to say orlando will be up for it but they have done nothing to prove they want to continue this season. Further, you have to extra special to get up for any game in Milwaukee or Salt Lake. NBA players despise those two places.

[babaoriley]

i've been betting professionally for 14 years

i dont bet on bad teams. thats just common sense for me.

i thought everyone here already learned there lesson on the magic.

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/basketball...tml#post247839

but i can take the time elaborate. sorry

u r playing the right side but I have no faith in jameer "****in st joes" nelson and grant over the hill. Dwight howard always gets points but he isnt a winner yet. Milwaukee is like the Bobcats and Orlando. Dont **** with em. erractic and unpredictable. I would like to say orlando will be up for it but they have done nothing to prove they want to continue this season. Further, you have to extra special to get up for any game in Milwaukee or Salt Lake. NBA players despise those two places.

Milwaukee is not, in any way, like Charlotte or Orlando. Just last week (March 30th actually), Charlotte beat Milwaukee by 16 with an absolutely atrocious lineup. Redd was even playing. NBA players don't enjoy playing in Milwaukee but they like making the playoffs and getting national TV exposure and a chance to start a playoff (ie "clutch) resume. I'm betting the better team, with more incentive, more healthy players, etc. and I'm only laying 3. Milwaukee is, without a doubt (sorry Memphis and Boston) the weakest link in the NBA right now.


EDIT: And that thread you linked to contained the following warning from me (my ONLY post in that thread, so I don't know why you brought it up):


Originally Posted by imgv94 View Post
I'm staying away myself.. A lot of signs pointing to Orl winning by DD..

I agree Toronto is the better team but this is a tough spot for them IMO..

ME:
Total agreement here. That -5 line is a red-flag. A BIG red-flag, actually. Maybe the Under, but no side for me tonight... Orlando could win by 18 and Toronto could win by 7... Who knows?

Notice how I wasn't on that one, dodif? Look, I get your general point: bet the elite teams this time of year... But, if one were to do that, they would be losing money hand over fist unless they were playing the Spurs ATS only.

[fearless]

When I first looked at tomorrow's lines, this one jumped out at me, Orlando -4. My heart says it should be no problem for Orlando. My head says, the spread is a little low, Redd is back, the Bucks clearly tried to win against the Knicks, and this:

Orlando's biggest problems of late have come away from home. The Magic's 12-25 road record is one of the worst in the East, and they've won just five of 26 road contests since starting the season 7-4 away from Amway Arena.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/preview?gameId=270409015

When I read that line in the preview, I started looking for another game.

[dodif]

Orlando has lost seven straight at the Bradley Center since a 100-90 victory Nov. 2, 2002, and is 1-15 in the last 16 visits.

[babaoriley]

Well, I got 4 units says Orlando wins by 3, and regardless, I like the play. I;ve followed this MIL team and made some cash. I like them to tank tommorrow.

[brewer]

orlando is one game behind nj for the 7 seed in the east but that is not what drives this. what drives this call on the magic as the small chalk tonight is that they are just 1 game away from falling out of the playoffs.

this is the first game of a three game road trip for the magic and they need to go out and compete and get a big time win tonight to get themselves feeling good about the later two road games.

eddy curry just dropped 43 on the bucks frontline, dwight should have no problem here tonight.

magic should own the glass and get bunnies all night.

milk in tank mode. magic fighting for their playoff lives.

gimme magic -3.

[LargeMouthBass]

Redd is out... -3 is definitely looking better.

[babaoriley]

Yes, that line is now at Orlando -6. considering a middle-attempt, but I'd have to buy a half point to make it more appealing... Any thoughts.

P.S. Redd's uncertain status is EXACTLY why I jumped on that as soon as the line came out. It was at 4 within a couple hours but now 6... A legit middle op, but do I really want to try it? Thoughts?

EDIT: For the record, I think Orlando covers 6 with ease. With this news (Redd out) I'm thinking of putting 4 more units on Orlando. Milwaukee will be playing with arguably the worst starting lineup of any team this season.

[bigboydan]

I'm liking the over 198 in this game

[babaoriley]

bbd, I don't like any part of the total tonight. Orlando does at least have Howard on the interior. Without Redd, Bogut, Villanueve, etc. I just worry about this team scoring. Orlando isn't exactly a runaway type team either. I wouldn't touch it, but I like the under better than the over.

[AC1318]

babaoriley
well redd is out and now the line is at 6
would you consider trying to middle the game now with a 3 point window?

[dodif]

good luck!

[babaoriley]

babaoriley
well redd is out and now the line is at 6
would you consider trying to middle the game now with a 3 point window?

Considered middling but I think Redd is worth more than 3 points to Milwaukee so that took the middle out of play. As I stated in my initial post, with Redd I still liked Orlando to win by 6+. I considered doubling up, but was more than happy to have a nice 4* play that I felt was a near mortal lock to hit. So, in the end, i decided to take my 4* and be done with it. In retrospect, considering how closely I've been following this Milwaukee team over the past 2 weeks or so, I should have doubled up at the initial 3 or even 4, but i was somewhat perplexed by the line. I understand how cold Orlando has been on the road, their history at Milwaukee, etc. but a team jockeying for playoff position vs. a team that has thrown in the towel just seemed like a -5 or -6 line. The uncertainty with Redd should have been figured into that initial line as well. He hasn't been a picture of health lately (missing 4 of the last 6, now) and the line felt like a trap. I just didn't see how ANYONE (except maybe a Boykins or Mo Williams relative) could play the Milwaukee side at 3. That's what I get for overthinking, I guess, but 90% of the time, if a side looks too good then it probably is...

Still a profitable day, though I should have hammered that thing for 8-10* from the get-go.

[fearless]

babaoriley, Great job!

[LargeMouthBass]

Very nice...

[dodif]

ez $

[nevadaside]

Wasn't on this one but what a call man!
Good one baba!

[brewer]

[babaoriley]

Thanks guys. With this and the Raptors games hitting, this board came up big today. Very fine day, indeed.