It’s one of the most anticipated nights in NBA Playoff history, sitting right in the heart of what’s been the greatest first round ever. Everyone’s talking about the LA Clippers first home game since the headlines of this past weekend shook the sports world. But, there’s also a hugely important game in Oklahoma City matching the Thunder and Grizzlies. And, the Chicago Bulls, once thought to be the team best positioned to scare the Miami Heat (once Indiana started collapsing), is on the verge of elimination as they host the Washington Wizards.
The world is going to be watching. Let’s see how sharps have been betting. We’ll take the games in tip off order. WASHINGTON AT CHICAGO: We’re mostly seeing a tug-of-war here between Chicago -4 and Washington +4.5. There’s definitely more sharp support for the dog at +4.5 than for the favorite at -4. But, there are some Wise Guys backing the “must-win” situation for the home team. Recent history has shown that some visitors with this much insurance take the fifth game off then try to finish things off at home. Probably 2-1 within the sharp community for the Washington side based on what are sources are saying.
The Over/Under opened at 184, and has been bet down to 183.5 or 183. We hear this is generally from “old school” approaches that prefer Unders in Games 5-6-7 of any playoff series. The math guys weren’t involved. MEMPHIS AT OKLAHOMA CITY: Oklahoma City opened at -6, and has been bet up to -6.5 or -7. It hasn’t happened much in the playoffs so far…but you did see sharps bet the favorite at the opener. They’ve generally been dog or pass (or dog and wait, then play at a better number if possible). There are factions who like Oklahoma City to re-establish their series advantage tonight. Those who prefer Memphis will gladly take +7, more if it’s available.
Not much happening on the total beyond a slight dip from the opener of 187 down to 186.5. Once again, the market has anticipated the number from the math guys…and old school approaches have shaded things a bit. Not much passion though given the slight move of just half a point. We’re not seeing the Over/Under fireworks this year that we’ve seen in the past…largely because sportsbooks are getting better at modeling this element of play. GOLDEN STATE AT LA CLIPPERS: Sharps are largely leaving this one alone until they get a better read on tonight’s landscape. The NBA commissioner will talk about the franchise in a daytime press conference. It’s not clear yet what kind of protests if any are in the works. Money that is hitting the market is on Golden State +6.5 or +6 on the assumption that any influences will hurt LAC’s chance to win decisively rather than help. But, it’s mostly a pass from the Wise Guys.
We have another total showing a slight move downward. An opener of 211 is now 210 in most places. Again, that’s old school money rather than math money. Some guys have made so much money betting late series Unders the past few decades that they’re going to keep riding that approach until there’s a reason not to.
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Great write up. Nice to see someone on here who pays attention to where the "smart" $ is and looks at historical data. Most threads talk about short term trends that we all know have little value. Keep up the good work!
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