[JR007]

After one of the most memorable weekends in NBA Playoff history…for reasons both good and bad…the sport jumps right back into the fray with THREE big games on Monday Night. We’re reaching the latter stages of the first round, when many old-school sharps start to bet automatic Unders. But, the incredibly high number of overtime games is making that dicey!
What have the Wise Guys been doing in Monday action? Let’s run through all three games in tipoff order.
MIAMI AT CHARLOTTE: The number here jumped from Miami -6.5 to Miami -8 on the news that Al Jefferson of Charlotte was downgraded to doubtful for tonight’s encounter. He’s the most important player on the Bobcats…who stood little chance in this series with him at full strength. With him hobbled, they’re down 3-0 and starting elimination in the face. The assumption in the markets right now is that Miami is going to wrap things up tonight…and it will be their focus and effort that will determine whether or not they cover the number. Little betting interest according to our sources. Not that the line move was based on “news” rather than betting action. We hear that sharps might consider the dog at +9 only for value bets.
The Over/Under opened at 187. Some places are showing 187.5 or 188. That’s the midpoint for the series so far, with a high of 198, a low of 183, and a middle of 187. Old school guys DIDN’T bet this Under because it’s not expected to be a classic playoff struggle, and because it’s only a “fourth” game of a series rather than a 5-6-7.
ATLANTA AT INDIANA: We’re seeing a tug-of-war between the public on Indiana at -6.5 and Wise Guys on Atlanta +7. Sharps still see this as a tight series even though Indiana did manage to slow down their horrible slump with a couple of wins. They’re gladly taking the full seven when it’s available. The public seems to be betting the assumption that the #1 seed is going to turn on the jets at home now that they’ve regained home floor for the series.
No sharp interest on the total, which opened as has stood pat at 186.5. The final scoreboard totals have been decreasing game-by-game: 194-186-183-179. Sharps don’t buy that as a real trend, and the math guys made it 186 themselves.
SAN ANTONIO AT DALLAS: The opener of San Antonio -4 has mostly stayed solid. That tells you that sharps don’t like the favorite or they would have been taking early positions. Though, we have seen some stores test Spurs -4.5…which suggests the public wants the Spurs. Sources tell us that the Wise Guys are impressed with Dallas, and would certainly take them strong at +5 if there’s heavy public interest on the Spurs through Monday. They’d settle for Dallas +4.5. Remember that the Spurs only win in this series was by five points on their home floor. The series is still in Dallas for tonight’s fourth game.
Big move on the total here…as an opener of 204 has been bet all the way down to 201.5. That may strike you as odd since Game Three landed on 217. Sources tell us that sharps expect both offenses to cool off after shooting so well Saturday. The numbers guys made it 202-203 and were in early. Matchup guys were still betting the Under at 202.

[SharpAngles]

Thank you for posting these. Great info every day

[Jarman]

[44 Mag]

After one of the most memorable weekends in NBA Playoff history…for reasons both good and bad…the sport jumps right back into the fray with THREE big games on Monday Night. We’re reaching the latter stages of the first round, when many old-school sharps start to bet automatic Unders. But, the incredibly high number of overtime games is making that dicey!
What have the Wise Guys been doing in Monday action? Let’s run through all three games in tipoff order.
MIAMI AT CHARLOTTE: The number here jumped from Miami -6.5 to Miami -8 on the news that Al Jefferson of Charlotte was downgraded to doubtful for tonight’s encounter. He’s the most important player on the Bobcats…who stood little chance in this series with him at full strength. With him hobbled, they’re down 3-0 and starting elimination in the face. The assumption in the markets right now is that Miami is going to wrap things up tonight…and it will be their focus and effort that will determine whether or not they cover the number. Little betting interest according to our sources. Not that the line move was based on “news” rather than betting action. We hear that sharps might consider the dog at +9 only for value bets.
The Over/Under opened at 187. Some places are showing 187.5 or 188. That’s the midpoint for the series so far, with a high of 198, a low of 183, and a middle of 187. Old school guys DIDN’T bet this Under because it’s not expected to be a classic playoff struggle, and because it’s only a “fourth” game of a series rather than a 5-6-7.
ATLANTA AT INDIANA: We’re seeing a tug-of-war between the public on Indiana at -6.5 and Wise Guys on Atlanta +7. Sharps still see this as a tight series even though Indiana did manage to slow down their horrible slump with a couple of wins. They’re gladly taking the full seven when it’s available. The public seems to be betting the assumption that the #1 seed is going to turn on the jets at home now that they’ve regained home floor for the series.
No sharp interest on the total, which opened as has stood pat at 186.5. The final scoreboard totals have been decreasing game-by-game: 194-186-183-179. Sharps don’t buy that as a real trend, and the math guys made it 186 themselves.
SAN ANTONIO AT DALLAS: The opener of San Antonio -4 has mostly stayed solid. That tells you that sharps don’t like the favorite or they would have been taking early positions. Though, we have seen some stores test Spurs -4.5…which suggests the public wants the Spurs. Sources tell us that the Wise Guys are impressed with Dallas, and would certainly take them strong at +5 if there’s heavy public interest on the Spurs through Monday. They’d settle for Dallas +4.5. Remember that the Spurs only win in this series was by five points on their home floor. The series is still in Dallas for tonight’s fourth game.
Big move on the total here…as an opener of 204 has been bet all the way down to 201.5. That may strike you as odd since Game Three landed on 217. Sources tell us that sharps expect both offenses to cool off after shooting so well Saturday. The numbers guys made it 202-203 and were in early. Matchup guys were still betting the Under at 202.

This is great insight. TX man.

[JR007]

not mine dude, wish I were that good