Four more games on a busy Sunday of NBA postseason action. After watching another Saturday ruled by road teams, with Indiana, Miami, and Oklahoma City all earning straight up victories…while San Antonio lost a heartbreaker at the buzzer…Wise Guys, oddsmakers, and the general public are being confronted with the fact that:
*Home Court Advantage doesn’t seem to mean much this year
*Seeding doesn’t seem to mean much this year (except for Miami)
That generally plays into the hands of sharps, but can get dicey when the series favorites are playing on the road. Squares want to bet on the “better” teams, particularly in must-win situations. Taking early positions, and trying to find winners is very tricky at this particular instant in the markets.
Here’s how the Wise Guys have been betting Sunday’s final quadrupleheader of the NBA Postseason. Enjoy the action! CHICAGO AT WASHINGTON: The opener was only -2 on the assumption that Nene Hilario would be suspended for the game. He was suspended…so oddsmakers anticipated that properly. That’s a low price for a home team in a bounce-back spot, so early action still pushed the number to Washington -2.5. We’re hearing that sharps would hit Chicago at +3. This hasn’t been a heavily bet game because of the early tip, and because squares (the public) doesn’t trust Chicago after the two home losses or Washington without Nene.
The Over/Under has been bet up from 182.5 to 183.5 or 184 because the Wizards have to use more “small ball” without Nene on the floor. Sharps focusing on “matchup dynamics” were behind that move rather than the math guys. LA CLIPPERS AT GOLDEN STATE: Slight move up on the Clippers from -1.5 to -2. That move is in the opposite direction of the bounce back or “zig-zag” team Golden State. So, it means more than your typical half point. Sources don’t have any news regarding how the Donald Sterling situation has affected the markets. If anything, it’s raised a question mark that’s encouraged bettors to leave the game alone. The Clippers players could be fired up to make a stand as a unit against their owner. They could be distracted in a way that leads to a poor outing. This game is a pass for many sharps.
The total has come down a point from an opener of 210.5 to 209.5. The math guys made it 210. We’re at a point where some of the old school guys start betting Unders on principal. There of Saturday’s four games stayed Under, with OKC/Memphis even staying Under after overtime. TORONTO AT BROOKLYN: Virtually no betting interest at all in this game on the side or total! Brooklyn opened at -4 and 192. That’s where the numbers are as we go to press. Given the lack of interest on the favorite, we can safely assume that sharps are either passing, or prefer Toronto and are waiting to see if they can get a better number. If sharps though -4 was too low, they would have acted immediately. The public isn’t taking Brooklyn at home in a major market, which suggests this line is going to stay put barring news breaking during the day. New York money doesn’t want the Nets at -4. Sharps are ready to take Toronto at +4.5 or +5. Will the sharps settle for +4 if that’s the best they’re going to get? Monitor line movements late in the afternoon to get a read. HOUSTON AT PORTLAND: So far we mostly have a tug-of-war between Portland -2 and Houston +2.5. Those preferring the favorite in the home bounce back spot are happy to lay -2. Those who think Houston has figured things out take +2.5 when they see it. This isn’t a big public series because of the cities involved…and the late night starts. Sources tell us the tug-of-war between the Wise Guys is likely to continue through the day at the numbers outlined above.
Big move on the total here…one of the biggest postseason moves of all in fact. The opener of 217 has been bet down to 214. We hear that’s due to a mix of the math guys, who made it 215, the old school guys who start betting Unders in Game 4 and later, and the matchup guys who expect a drop from the 22 made three-pointers that we had back in Game Three. All major line-influencing approaches thought 217 was too high, as well as 216.
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