1. #1
    Jay Edgar
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    Jay Edgar NBA, Wednesday 04.04.07

    As I've mentioned more than once, I am essentially done for the NBA season and am running the numbers and tracking the results to see what can be learned.

    At this point fundamental handicapping seems hit or miss at best, and completely meaningless at worst. All lottery-bound teams (and some playoff teams) have big conflicts of interest that are skewing the performance and the results.

    Perhaps not surprisingly, the ugly-ducklings that this system picks are hanging in there ATS, but are not pulling anywhere near the rate of straight-up wins that they showed before the silly season started.

    THROUGH TUESDAY 04.03.07

    5%-OFF TEAMS vs. MONEYLINE (risking 1u on dogs; betting to win 1u on favorites)
    Tuesday, 1-7, -6.00u
    (MIN, CHA, TOR, MIL, IND, MEM, SAC, SEA)
    YTD 284-540, +43.87u
    (since the ASB: 75-175, -21.84u)

    SAME TEAMS ATS (1.05u to win 1.00u)
    Tuesday, 4-4, -0.20u
    YTD 433-378 (.534) +36.10u
    (since the ASB: 125-121 (.508) -2.05u)

    POWER RATINGS OVER LAST TEN GAMES
    1 SAN 68
    2 LAC 67
    3 DET 63
    4 PHX 60
    5 DAL 60
    6 HOU 58
    7 DEN 58
    8 CLE 58
    9 TOR 57
    10 CHI 54
    11 UTH 52
    12 CHA 51
    13 WAS 50
    14 NJ 50
    15 BOS 50
    16 LAX 49
    17 NOK 49
    18 ORL 48
    19 MIA 47
    20 IND 47
    21 PHI 46
    22 GS 46
    23 SEA 44
    24 MEM 40
    25 SAC 40
    26 NY 39
    27 POR 38
    28 ATL 38
    29 MIN 34
    30 MIL 33

    EDGAR LINES FOR 04.04.07
    (favorite-spread/moneyline-dog)

    ORL 4.8/174 over TOR

    WAS 5.9/211 over CHA

    NJ 7.5/303 over ATL

    NY 1.8/117 over PHI

    BOS 0.2/101 over MIL

    DET 4.1/163 over CHI

    NOK 3.0/138 over SEA

    HOU 5.3/186 over GS

    DEN 9.2/416 over SAC

    UTH 1.2/106 over POR

    LAC 8.9/379 over LAX

    5%-OFF MARKER

    TOR +209, ORL -145

    CHA +257, WAS -175

    ATL +386, NJ -245

    PHI +138, NY +102

    BOS +118, MIL +119

    CHI +196, DET -137

    SEA +164, NOK -116

    GS +225, HOU -155

    SAC +558, DEN -324

    UTH +112, POR +125

    LAX +500, LAC -299

  2. #2
    bigboydan
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    Very interesting numbers considering the time of the year Jay.

  3. #3
    Wheell
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    "Perhaps not surprisingly, the ugly-ducklings that this system picks are hanging in there ATS, but are not pulling anywhere near the rate of straight-up wins that they showed before the silly season started."

    That's absurd. The entire world knows which teams have incentives to tank and which teams don't, and that should be reflected in the moneyline. If you REALLY felt that way, you should be attacking the teams that have "quit."

  4. #4
    Jay Edgar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wheell View Post
    "If you REALLY felt that way, you should be attacking the teams that have "quit."
    That's purely-situational rather than mostly-fundamental handicapping. Have at it. That's not what this system does and that's not how it got to a high of +115 units in late January with 55% ATS over hundreds of games. That was done with a ratings approach that doesn't work as well when some teams are satisfied on some nights to get close but don't actually want to win the game.

    Also, to date, I don't think it's all that obvious which teams are going to go belly up in every game. And very few teams have been going belly up in every game to this point -- although that may change as the bizarro world "stretch drive" begins.

  5. #5
    Wheell
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    The point remains the same, if you expect your methodology to be negative EV on the ML for the rest of the season, it still is quite useful. If you expect everything to just be noise at this point, then I understand stepping away.

  6. #6
    Jay Edgar
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    OK, got it.

    Actually fading the ML picks would involve, as always, laying huge chalk. Very volatile, and not for the squeamish.

    Plus I think it is more noise than negative EV at this point, though after I track it through to the season's end I'll have a clearer view.

  7. #7
    Jay Edgar
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    % TEAM ATS ML
    5 CHA WIN 260
    8 LAC WIN 100
    9 CHI WIN 230
    10 GS WIN 288
    12 ATL LOSS -100
    15 BOS LOSS -100
    16 SEA LOSS -100
    26 POR WIN 335


    THROUGH WEDNESDAY 04.04.07

    5%-OFF TEAMS vs. MONEYLINE (risking 1u on dogs; betting to win 1u on favorites)
    Wednesday, 5-3, +9.13u
    (CHA, ATL, BOS, CHI, SEA, GS. POR, LAC)
    YTD 289-543, +53.00u
    (since the ASB: 80-178, -12.71u)

    SAME TEAMS ATS (1.05u to win 1.00u)
    Wednesday, 5-3, +1.85u
    YTD 438-381 (.535) +37.95u
    (since the ASB: 130-124 (.512) -0.20u)

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