3-0 + 3 U on posted plays here...so far cashed in last night on Blake G over points, Portland OVER 51.5 (2nd half TT) of game 2, and the Bobcats OVER their game 2 second half total. Will put all plays in one thread going forward...
Toronto/Brooklyn UNDER 48 (1st quarter total)
Expecting a slug fest out of the gates in Brooklyn tonight and wouldn't be surprised to see offensive output similar to the first q between OKC and Memphis yesterday. As usual, look for Lowry and Deron to try and look for their teammates early and often, so without their aggressiveness that usually results in open shots or trips to the FT line, thinking the "scoring" will happen later in the game.
Jonas Valanciunas UNDER 24.5 points/rebounds *** 3 ***
Jonas' first road playoff game should give us a bit of an advantage to start with for this prop. He exceeded this total in his first 2 playoff games quite easily, but tonight will be a completely different story in a hostile environment. Tonight is the night we see the Rapts big man get into early foul trouble with some home cooking officiating, and/or the Nets make an adjustment from games 1 and 2 to stop him from dominating down low. KG/Blatche/Plumlee will get the best of the Raptors big man tonight. Make no mistake...Brooklyn's priority on the defensive side has nothing to do with Lowry and Derozan.
and right on cue, Jonas plays 10 minutes in the first half and picks up 3 fouls in those 10. Some things are too easy to predict. Watch how quickly number 4 comes
Thinking Houston will do whatever it takes to force the ball out of Aldridge's hands or this series is over. Limited books for myself as i was looking for a prop on Aldridge's assists or combined reb/ass, but no luck. Anyway, i think this has value especially considering the pace and transition game should still be there which is where this kid excels. This is one of those props that may not hit, but if it does, could easily be early or midway 3rd quarter..
Granted this is really a coin flip, i'm a "feel" type bettor and my feeling on this game, first in Portland, crazy atmosphere, is that Portland in the first couple/few possessions will hit a 3 and come out with a crazy intensity. A bucket/minute plus that 3 and this one is locked up. Wesley Matthews, you're on deck....
Luton -1 (-182) English Skrill Premier League 3-way line
This is the top vs the bottom of a 24 team division. Luton has lost 5 times in 45 games while Hyde has fallen 37 out of 45. Luton has the league title wrapped up, but the talent gap here is so huge that Luton could field half reserves and still easily be the stronger side. Should easily be a 2-3 goal victory for the away side
All about pace in this game. Both teams love to counter and both teams a bit shaky on the back side especially considering both are dealing with multiple starting 11 out. This could easily be a 3-2, 4-3 type game. Been cashing on European overs lately and this one shouldn't disappoint.
Unfortunately Luton can't be bothered today.0-0 in the 60th minute so asking them to put 2 in may be too much
Paul George OVER 34.5 pts/reb/ass -120
Indiana/Atlanta OVER 188 *** 3 ***
Would be shocked if Vogel fiddles around with a rotation that includes much of Hibbert today, Whether it's Scola or playing more of small ball, i think today's game will be a bit more up and down. Discarding the past between these two teams this entire season and think this total is eclipsed pretty easily.
I think Straily's hiding something thats affecting his mechanics. Have some US buddies around the region and were talking that he's apparently still "in the process" of working in different pitches on different counts, most of which he either is against or not comfortable with. Won't surprise me if his struggles continue even against the worst team in the majors.
If anyone is paying attention, i'm not one to worry about laying dumb chalk...but the 4.5 spread here right on track and i really think it's Dallas' game to lose. That said, i'll take either a last possession finale or in the chance that SA figures out how to get their shit together. Think this one hits enough to lay it
With or without Nene, still think the Wizards are the better team in the series. Chicago made adjustments to take Nene out of their last game so i don't think its too big a deal he's out here. Really think Ariza steps up and Wall/Beal can/will shoulder more of the offensive load.
With Augustin on the bench and Hinrich sucking as usual, the guard play or lack-there-of will be why the Wizz pull away. Not to mention that the supposed Bulls tough D is gone.
Love an up-and-down tempo game tonight. Rapts will get a bit more offensive contribution from the likes of Ross and Vasquez and i don't think they have it in them to make the necessary adjustment to stop Deron/JJ/Pierce from doing what they want to do. Also very likely to see a ton of foul shots today, especially if some early calls fall the Rapts way. Remember, the 'experienced' Brooklyn team will ALWAYS get the benefit of the doubt.
Toronto/Brooklyn OVER 47.5 (4th quarter) *** 3 ***
Chasing a bit what looks like an awful outcome for all my bets, but i think we'll see the lead creep enough for either team that fouling and extending the game will push the 4th quarter over
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