[JR007]

"Las Vegas oddsmakers, sharps, squares, and anyone else who follows the NBA has been stunned by the opening few days of NBA Playoff action. Sharps are doing a better job than others of making money off it, particularly given their penchant for preferring value underdogs. But, even the richest sharp wouldn’t tell you he was expecting that underdogs would be 9-7 straight up through the first 16 games of the 2014 postseason…particularly with the average pointspread being the favorite -7.
Members of the betting public have been doing well too the past few days with the “bet the loser of Game One in Game Two” theory. All of the following G1 losers scored G2 covers: Dallas, Charlotte, Memphis, the LA Clippers, and Indiana. Toronto was a push in some places and a cover in others. Only Chicago and Houston failed to bounce back…and they failed so hard that they trail two-games-to-none despite opening with two home games!
Thursday brings our first Game Three’s onto the table…which increases the drama dramatically because many series favorites are already embarrassed to be tied at one-game apiece as they deal with raucous road crowds. Teams trailing 2-0 straight up know it’s now or never, because it’s extremely difficult to rally from 3-0 down in a modern NBA series.
A tripleheader is on tap tonight. Let’s see how sharps have been betting this new set of challenges…
INDIANA AT ATLANTA: Indiana opened at -2, as the market continues to try to figure out which Pacers team is going to show up. The version that one Game Two in a blowout can storm through this series unblemished the rest of the way. The version that’s been playing the last few weeks is far from certain to even win one game in Atlanta. Sharps have shown no tendency yet, which at least tells you they don’t like the favorite. They didn’t attack the opener. They didn’t even take position against an assumed public move toward the Pacers. Sources tell us the Wise Guys would definitely come in hard on Atlanta +3, and would settle for smaller action on Atlanta +2.5 if they see it.
The Over/Under opened at 186, and has moved up a half a point to 186.5. Note that the last game was totaled at 186.5, and landed exactly on 186.
OKLAHOMA CITY AT MEMPHIS: Oklahoma City opened at -1, and was bet up to -1.5 and -2. There was definitely sharp action AND position taking at the one. Wise Guy money stopped at -2. The public may continue pushing the number higher because they love betting series favorites at cheap prices off a loss. Remember that the public sees OKC as championship caliber when Russell Westbrook is healthy (he missed most of last year’s playoffs). We hear buy backs from sharps on Memphis wouldn’t come in until +3. Those in early are happy with their positions.
The total here opened at 190, and has been bet down to 188.5 We hear the math guys made it 189…and that sharps who believed Memphis would play well preferred to channel that sentiment into a “defensive” game against the total rather than on the team side. So, sharps who liked OKC bet the Thunder at -1 and -1.5. Sharps who believe in Memphis bet Under 190, 189.5, and 189 rather than the team side.
LA CLIPPERS AT GOLDEN STATE: Another cheap road favorite as the Clippers opened at -2. This was similar to the first game in that sharps DIDN’T act on the opener. That tells you they prefer the dog, and that they don’t expect the public to hit the Clippers hard enough to move the number. As we go to press, many stores have come down to Clippers -1.5. Golden State’s home court advantage gets a lot of respect from sharps. And, there’s a feeling that LAC will fall back to earth after that huge Game Two blowout. Nothing much happening on the total. The Over/Under opened at 214. We’ve seen stores test a half point in either direction just to see if they can generate some action. The math guys made it 214 according to our sources. As we’ve reported before, oddsmakers seem to be doing a good job of honing in on the numbers of the math guys. We’re just not seeing “big” moves on any of these opening totals. That could be more likely in Games 5-6-7 when old school sharps start betting more Unders. "

[BCC585]

Thanks for sharing, a lot of coinflip situations tonight.
The only games that appeal to me are the last two games because Indy is unpredictable.
I'm prolly going to look for value on the live lines tonight.

[Winning oasis]

Thank you for posting. Past couple days have been good. Appreciated.

[KRIT]

Great read, thanks JR.

[Jarman]

Thanks again for taking the time to share the great post JR! When you have time, check your messages

[JR007]

good luck guys, playoffs are tough...go easy

[Winning oasis]

Thanks again JR. I know you said you are simply forwarding what you read but it is appreciated. Do you mind if I ask where you are getting the great info? Thanks!