[suicidekings]

Simulated games

NJN @ IND -4, 192, IND (-4) ATS (55.4%), IND ML (73.6%), UNDER 198.5 (82.7%)
HOU -5 @ PHI, 195, HOU (-2.5) ATS (64.9%), HOU ML (78.1%), OVER 193.5 (59.1%)
NYK @ NOH -3, 197.5, NYK (+6.5) ATS (70.7%), NOH ML (69.5%), UNDER 205.5 (89.8%)
GSW @ CHI -3.5, 200.5, GSW (+4.5) ATS (60.7%), CHI ML (70.9%), UNDER 213.5 (99.1%)
POR @ CLE -1.5, 188, POR (+10) ATS (89.3%), CLE ML (58.7%), OVER 187 (58.2%)
OKC @ MEM -1, 191.5, OKC (+2) ATS (55.3%), MEM ML (56.3%), UNDER 197 (80.7%)
CHR @ SAN -7.5, 188.5, SAN (-7.5) ATS (50.7%), SAN ML (87.7%), OVER 188 (53.2%)
MIN @ LAL -12, 188.5, MIN (+15) ATS (68.1%), LAL ML (95%), OVER 197.5 (53.2%)
ORL @ PHX -4.5, 207, PHX (-2.5) ATS (58.4%), PHX ML (73.3%), UNDER 212.5 (77.6%)
ATL @ TOR (-0.5), 200.5, TOR (+3.5) ATS (72.4%), TOR ML (51.3%), UNDER 209 (88%)
DAL -3 @ MIA, 190, DAL (-1) ATS (59.8%), DAL ML (64.8%), UNDER 194 (70.6%)

All percentages refer to performance relative to available lines at time of posting.

[suicidekings]

PARLAY: NYK +6.5 / UNDER 206.5 (+281) x0.25

[suicidekings]

POR +10 (-106) x0.5
NYK +6.5 (-101) x0.5

[suicidekings]

POR 2H +10 (-105) x0.5

[suicidekings]

PARLAY (+1294) x0.25
-- NYK 2H +1
-- CHI 2H -4.5
-- POR 2H +10.5
-- OKC 2H +4

[suicidekings]

PHX -3 (-111) x0.5

[suicidekings]

Simulated games

NJN @ IND -4, 192, IND (-4) ATS (55.4%), IND ML (73.6%), UNDER 198.5 (82.7%)
HOU -5 @ PHI, 195, HOU (-2.5) ATS (64.9%), HOU ML (78.1%), OVER 193.5 (59.1%)
NYK @ NOH -3, 197.5, NYK (+6.5) ATS (70.7%), NOH ML (69.5%), UNDER 205.5 (89.8%)
GSW @ CHI -3.5, 200.5, GSW (+4.5) ATS (60.7%), CHI ML (70.9%), UNDER 213.5 (99.1%)
POR @ CLE -1.5, 188, POR (+10) ATS (89.3%), CLE ML (58.7%), OVER 187 (58.2%)
OKC @ MEM -1, 191.5, OKC (+2) ATS (55.3%), MEM ML (56.3%), UNDER 197 (80.7%)
CHR @ SAN -7.5, 188.5, SAN (-7.5) ATS (50.7%), SAN ML (87.7%), OVER 188 (53.2%)
MIN @ LAL -12, 188.5, MIN (+15) ATS (68.1%), LAL ML (95%), OVER 197.5 (53.2%)
ORL @ PHX -4.5, 207, PHX (-2.5) ATS (58.4%), PHX ML (73.3%), UNDER 212.5 (77.6%)
ATL @ TOR (-0.5), 200.5, TOR (+3.5) ATS (72.4%), TOR ML (51.3%), UNDER 209 (88%)
DAL -3 @ MIA, 190, DAL (-1) ATS (59.8%), DAL ML (64.8%), UNDER 194 (70.6%)

All percentages refer to performance relative to available lines at time of posting.

12/11 Results
ATS: 9-2
ML: 8-3
O/U: 7-4

I'm pretty stoked about these results on the first day. Pretty sure there was a LOT of luck involved, but I'll take it.

[suicidekings]

12/11: 3-3-1 (+0.53u) The PHX push to end off the night was a bit anticlimactic, but wtv. A positive day for a change is great...

Something to build on.

[suicidekings]

12/12 Simulations

Sim Line, Sim Total, ATS Pick (%), ML Pick (%), O/U Pick (%)

IND @ WAS -3, 200, ATS IND +7.5 (71.2%), ML WAS (67.8%), UNDER 207 (83.4%)
GSW @ DET -4.5, 199.5, ATS GSW +6 (58.0%), ML DET (76.6%), UNDER 205.5 (83.2%)
BOS -4.5 @ CHI, 184.5, ATS CHI +9.5 (81.0%), ML BOS (76.6%), UNDER 186.5 (64.9%)
CHR @ DAL -6, 187, ATS CHR +7 (54.4%), ML DAL (83.8%), UNDER 189 (62.0%)
POR @ MIL -2, 192, ATS POR +4 (61.1%), ML MIL (60.9%), OVER 190.5 (56.2%)
PHX @ DEN -8, 216, ATS PHX +8.5 (53.3%), ML DEN (86.9%), UNDER 224.5 (88.0%)
LAL @ UTA -3, 198, ATS UTA -2 (53.4%), ML UTA (63.1%), UNDER 202 (69.7%)
MIN @ SAC -8.5, 204, ATS SAC -7.5 (55.3%), ML SAC (88.0%), UNDER 204.5 (52.5%)

*5000 simulations per game

[suicidekings]

12/12 Booked Plays

CHI +9.5 (-105) x1.5
IND +7.5 (-114) x1
IND 1H +4 (+100) x0.5
POR +4 (-112) x1
POR 1H +2.5 (-111) X0.5
GSW/DET UNDER 206 (-104) x0.5
TEASER (+600) x0.25
-- IND +12.5
-- GSW +10.5
-- CHI +14.5
-- CHR +12
-- POR +9
-- PHX +13.5

[suicidekings]

It was very easy to modify the simulations to do first halves, so I ran them for all games. I'm not going to post all of them, but the best picks were:

Sim Line, Selection(s)

IND @ WAS PK, ATS IND +4 (87%)
POR @ MIL -1, ATS POR +2.5 (71.3%)
PHX @ DEN (109.5), UNDER 114 (89.6%)
LAL @ UTA (105.5), OVER 103 (74.3%)
MIN @ SAC (106.5), OVER 104 (72.3%)

[don logan]

GL w/Portland, bro

[suicidekings]

12/12 Booked Plays

CHI +9.5 (-105) x1.5
IND +7.5 (-114) x1
IND 1H +4 (+100) x0.5
POR +4 (-112) x1
POR 1H +2.5 (-111) X0.5
GSW/DET UNDER 206 (-104) x0.5
TEASER (+600) x0.25
-- IND +12.5
-- GSW +10.5
-- CHI +14.5
-- CHR +12
-- POR +9
-- PHX +13.5

Adding

ML PARLAY - DET / DAL / UTA (+230) x1

[suicidekings]

GSW 2H +5 (-111) x0.5

[suicidekings]

LAL / UTA 2H UNDER 99.5 (-104) x0.5
UTA 2H ML (+120) x0.5

[lakerboy]

Bro with all due respect I cant for the life of me understand why you bet so many events.

[suicidekings]

Bro with all due respect I cant for the life of me understand why you bet so many events.

I feel like it's spreading the risk around rather than relying on 1-2 games. I put a lot of time into building the models I use for these games, and the output provides info for all the games with only marginally more effort than if I used it for 1-2. That being said, if I see 8-10 of what I feel are high percentage plays, why not diversify?

[suicidekings]

12/12: 7-4-0 (+2.4u)

[bustabook]

looks good suicide... having fun yet?

[suicidekings]

12/12 Full Game simulations

sim line, sim total, ats pick (%), ml pick (%), o/u pick (%)

ind @ was -3, 200, ats ind +7.5 (71.2%), ml was (67.8%), under 207 (83.4%)
gsw @ det -4.5, 199.5, ats gsw +6 (58.0%), ml det (76.6%), under 205.5 (83.2%)
bos -4.5 @ chi, 184.5, ats chi +9.5 (81.0%), ml bos (76.6%), under 186.5 (64.9%)
chr @ dal -6, 187, ats chr +7 (54.4%), ml dal (83.8%), under 189 (62.0%)
por @ mil -2, 192, ats por +4 (61.1%), ml mil (60.9%), over 190.5 (56.2%)
phx @ den -8, 216, ats phx +8.5 (53.3%), ml den (86.9%), under 224.5 (88.0%)
lal @ uta -3, 198, ats uta -2 (53.4%), ml uta (63.1%), under 202 (69.7%)
min @ sac -8.5, 204, ats sac -7.5 (55.3%), ml sac (88.0%), under 204.5 (52.5%)

*5000 simulations per game

12/12
ats: 5-3
ml: 7-1
o/u: 5-3

ytd
ats: 14-5
ml: 15-4
o/u:12-7

First Half Sim Line Selections

IND @ WAS PK, ATS IND +4 (87%)
POR @ MIL -1, ATS POR +2.5 (71.3%)
PHX @ DEN (109.5), UNDER 114 (89.6%)
LAL @ UTA (105.5), OVER 103 (74.3%)
MIN @ SAC (106.5), OVER 104 (72.3%)

First Halves 12/12: 5-0

[suicidekings]

Oh yeah man. Great day for the Sims and my own plays. I just need to figure out how to implement a factor for rest (B2B, 3 in 4, 4 in 5, 4 in 6). I'm going to need to do some number crunching to try to quantify the effect.

[bustabook]

here ya go... maybe this will help a little. i haven't read the whole thing but it seems to be relevant to your "problem".

http://www-stat.wharton.upenn.edu/~d..._submitted.pdf

[lafaz32]

Nice sweep on the 1H bets, I like the way your system is working, looking forward for tomorrows picks!

[TGoat]

12/12
ats: 5-3
ml: 7-1
o/u: 5-3

ytd
ats: 14-5
ml: 15-4
o/u:12-7




First Halves 12/12: 5-0

Great start. Hope it continues for you.

[suicidekings]

12/13: FULL GAME SIMS

Sim Line, Sim Total, ATS Pick (%), ML Pick (%), O/U Pick (%)

HOU -1 @ TOR, 203, ATS TOR +2 (55.9%), ML HOU (57.1%), OVER 203 (50.8%)
NJN @ ATL -11.5, 197.5, ATS NJN +12.5 (53.8%), ML ATL (94%), UNDER 198.5 (53.9%)
MEM @ MIA -4, 200, ATS MEM +7 (68.3%), ML MIA (70.7%), OVER 195.5 (73.6%)
CLE @ OKC -1.5, 193, ATS OKC +3.5 (78%), ML OKC (59.5%), OVER 191 (62.8%)
SAN @ LAC -0.5, 187.5, ATS LAC +6 (87.3%), ML LAC (54.9%), OVER 187 (52.5%)

[suicidekings]

12/13 FIRST HALF SIMS (1H SPREADS ASSUMED FROM FULL GAME LINES, TOTALS PENDING)

Sim Line, Sim Total, ATS Pick (%), O/U Pick (%)

HOU @ TOR -4, 106, ATS TOR +1 (92%), OVER 103 (79.6%)
NJN @ ATL -5.5, 102.5, ATS NJN +6.5 (58.6%), OVER 99.5 (76.2%)
MEM pk @ MIA, 101.5, ATS MEM +3.5 (85.1%), OVER 99 (75.6%)
CLE -2 @ OKC, 103, ATS CLE -1.5 (53.1%), OVER 96.5 (97.1%)
SAN @ LAC -1.5, 97.5, ATS LAC +3 (91.3%), OVER 95 (79.2%)

[suicidekings]

Overnight plays

OKC +3.5 (-110) x1
LAC +6 (-113) x1

Maybe a 1H TOR play tomorrow morning, if I get up in time. Otherwise, I don't see any value in the first two games of the day at all...

[bustabook]

like those plays suicide- got a question... how are you determining a PLAY or NO PLAY (> 70% in simulations i assume)?

[suicidekings]

like those plays suicide- got a question... how are you determining a PLAY or NO PLAY (> 70% in simulations i assume)?

I don't have a set criteria as yet. Any number I assign would be arbitrary, but i'm thinking it'll be a process of being able to justify the play in other ways. My sim uses full season stats, but doesn't take current form, rest, etc into account yet. Once I'm confident that I've dealt with the various factors that I feel affect the outcome of the game, then maybe a stricter criteria will become apparent. Until then, I'm just playing it by ear.

[suicidekings]

Overnight plays

OKC +3.5 (-110) x1
LAC +6 (-113) x1

Maybe a 1H TOR play tomorrow morning, if I get up in time. Otherwise, I don't see any value in the first two games of the day at all...

Adding:

TOR 1H pk (+106) x0.5
HOU / TOR 1H OVER 103 (-106) x0.5

[suicidekings]

12/13: Live Betting (during 2Q)

HOU GM ML (+276) x1

[suicidekings]

Adding:

TOR 1H pk (+106) x0.5
HOU / TOR 1H OVER 103 (-106) x0.5

I got greedy here with the total... 1-1 (+0u)...

[suicidekings]

12/13: Live Betting (during 2Q)

HOU GM ML (+276) x1

Added HOU +11 (-108) in the 4Q.

[suicidekings]

hou gm ml (+276) x1
hou +11 (-108) x0.5

0-2 (-1.54)

That was Toronto's best defensive game of the season (at least among the games I've watched) and the first time I've seen them maintain a lead from the first half. Ariza disgraceful.. letting his frustration from going 0-9 get to him by taking a shot at the back on Brooks' head with his elbow = technical foul + ejection.

[djpremier36]

Overnight plays

OKC +3.5 (-110) x1

LAC +6 (-113) x1

I'm leaning the same...as well as MEM possibly...GL homes!