1. #1
    Ratzz
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    •• NBA PAYDAY 4 (Handicapping + Algorithms)

    i think something can be done with this..
    trying this out.. interesting results.. so far

    one new feature is to double down on a 1Q pick (at Halftime)
    if that team has not covered either the 1Q or the 1H

    *(i.e. GSW. vs. POR on March 16th)

    •• GSW lost the 1Q wager on a buzzer-beater bucket to end the 1Q,
    and then was trounced in the 2Q.

    *..but roared back outscored the Blazers by 12 pts*after the break
    (easy 2H cover)

    *not that i have been worth tailing recently (at all) ugh!

    ..but please nobody put a single penny on this until this method
    demonstrates itself to be worthy of a person's hard-earned cash.

    cheers, ®

  2. #2
    Ratzz
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    March 18th

    1) CLE__+3.5__1ST QTR vs. Miami

    (i know Irving is out, Wade out too i believe)..

    i prolly would take them for the game (+9.5 at home) if Irving was in*

  3. #3
    Ratzz
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    ok.. the leans/figures predicted this outcome..
    but i thought earlier..(1Q pick)
    the 2Q is ALL Cleveland.. ouch.

    •• the Cavs would easily have covered the (+7) 1H

    but the figures do seem to be working okay..
    i just need to time it better and figure that end out.

  4. #4
    Ratzz
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    –– March 18th

    2) SAC__pk__1ST QTR vs. Washington

    3) SAC__+1.5__GAME vs. 10PM

    leans and figures point to Sacramento..

  5. #5
    blerpblerp
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ratzz View Post
    –– March 18th

    2) SAC__pk__1ST QTR vs. Washington

    3) SAC__+1.5__GAME vs. 10PM

    leans and figures point to Sacramento..
    Can you elaborate for the 1Q?

    I might lay off if you have that strong of a push for SAC, but..

    Wash is the best 1Q ATS team in the NBA and they've got SAC in a very vulnerable spot...first home game return after being on the road since March 5th I think. Everything with me points to WAS.

  6. #6
    Ratzz
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    Quote Originally Posted by blerpblerp View Post
    Can you elaborate for the 1Q?

    I might lay off if you have that strong of a push for SAC, but..

    Wash is the best 1Q ATS team in the NBA and they've got SAC in a very vulnerable spot...first home game return after being on the road since March 5th I think. Everything with me points to WAS.
    all my numbers said Kings 1Q.. not over yet, but*Kings defense looking good early..
    the adjustments to 'capping and algorithm may be working..

    hope it keeps up whole game

  7. #7
    Ratzz
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    –– March 18th

    4) SAC__pk__2ND HALF * vs. Washington

  8. #8
    Ratzz
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    –– March 19th

    5) BKN__–3.5__1ST HALF * vs. Charlotte

    6) CHA/BKN__Over 193.5__GAME * 7.30PM

  9. #9
    Ratzz
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    –– March 19th

    7) NYK__pk__1ST QTR * vs. Indiana

    8) NYK__+1.5__GAME * 8.00PM

  10. #10
    Ratzz
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    –– March 19th

    9) MIN/DAL__Over 54__1ST QTR*

    10) MIN/DAL__Over 210__GAME *8.30PM

  11. #11
    Ratzz
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    –– March 19th

    11) LAK__+13__GAME *10.30PM

  12. #12
    Ratzz
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    GO Lakerz!

  13. #13
    No coincidences
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ratzz View Post
    GO Lakerz!
    What do you call what the Lakers do?

    It's not defense. I'm trying to come up with a different word for standing around picking your ass as your opponent rips you to shreds.

  14. #14
    Ratzz
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    lol... indeed Dr. No

    i think the rims are 25% larger... or who knows..
    seems like they only look at their own score..

    i still think they come together and play a little D..

    and keep it close this evening, hope so

    a clean sweep would be nice (7-0 tonight, and 10-0 last ten)
    been wprking hard to figure out this most maddening puzzle, maybe i made some headway

    this has happened to me before though,
    i would need to keep it up several days in a row
    before i believe anything

  15. #15
    Ratzz
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    –– March 19th

    12) LAK__+7.5__2ND HALF*

  16. #16
    No coincidences
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    This LAL/SA fourth quarter is very fishy. Lakers getting hammered going to the basket, nothing called, Lakers just stand around, act like they don't care, then they go down the court and play zero D.

    Does this have anything to do with the fact that dogs were 6-1 early in the NBA tonight, including winning the first game of the ESPN doubleheader? Seems fishy that in the DEN/DET, ORL/PHO and now LAL/SA games, these teams magically all cover late after not covering the whole game.

    Every possession -- Laker players just standing around in the last four minutes.

  17. #17
    Ratzz
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    Quote Originally Posted by No coincidences View Post
    This LAL/SA fourth quarter is very fishy. Lakers getting hammered going to the basket, nothing called, Lakers just stand around, act like they don't care, then they go down the court and play zero D.

    Does this have anything to do with the fact that dogs were 6-1 early in the NBA tonight, including winning the first game of the ESPN doubleheader? Seems fishy that in the DEN/DET, ORL/PHO and now LAL/SA games, these teams magically all cover late after not covering the whole game.

    Every possession -- Laker players just standing around in the last four minutes.
    if more calls they woulda covered... they almost did even without the calls.. oh well..

    i think i know what is missing in that pick,.. i will try to rectify that tomorrow

    i hope the good Doctor made out tonight..*

    i will look into tomorrow.. cheers, ®

  18. #18
    Ratzz
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ratzz View Post
    March 18th
    1) CLE__+3.5__1ST QTR**(L)

    2) SAC__pk__1ST QTR**(W)

    3) SAC__+1.5__GAME* (W)

    4) SAC__pk__2ND HALF**(W)


    March 19th


    5) BKN__–3.5__1ST HALF** (W)

    6) CHA/BKN__Over 193.5__GAME** (W)
    *
    7) NYK__pk__1ST QTR** (W)

    8) NYK__+1.5__GAME** (W)

    9) MIN/DAL__Over 54__1ST QTR* (W)

    10) MIN/DAL__Over 210__GAME***(W)

    11) LAK__+13__GAME* (L)


    12) LAK__+7.5__2ND HALF (L)
    okay.. new style working better.. i will continue,
    and see if it holds up.

    but so far so good

    New Method
    (9-3)

  19. #19
    Ratzz
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    –– March 20th

    13) CLE__+5.5__1ST HALF* vs. Oklahoma

  20. #20
    No coincidences
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ratzz View Post
    –– March 20th

    13) CLE__+5.5__1ST HALF* vs. Oklahoma
    Unbelievable. Up 4 at the end of the first quarter and can't even cover the 5.5.

    What a pitiful second quarter.

  21. #21
    Ratzz
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    –– March 20th

    14) POR__–2.5__1ST HALF* vs. Washington

    15) WAS/POR__Under 206.5__GAME* 10PM

  22. #22
    Ratzz
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    –– March 20th

    16) POR__–1.5__1ST QTR* vs. Washington

  23. #23
    Ratzz
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    –– March 20th

    17) MIL__+7.5__1ST HALF* vs. GSW

    18)MIL__+12.5__GAME* 10.30PM

  24. #24
    Ratzz
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    –– March 21st

    19) CHI__+3.5__1ST HALF* vs. Indiana

    20)CHI__+6.5__GAME*

    Bulls looking better.. let's see

  25. #25
    Ratzz
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    –– March 21st

    21) DEN__+2.5__1ST QTR* vs. Dallas

    i hope the Mavs start slow..*

  26. #26
    Ratzz
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    –– March 21st

    22) SAC__+4.5__1ST HALF* vs. San Antonio

    this line seems low..
    i kinda feel a 'trap' line where everyone jumps on SAS

    Kings might be able to keep it close.. and gritty in the 2Q

  27. #27
    Ratzz
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    –– March 21st

    23) PHX__–2.5__1ST QTR* vs. Detroit

  28. #28
    Ratzz
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    –– March 21st

    24) PHX__–5.5__2ND HALF* vs. Detroit

  29. #29
    Ratzz
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    – March 22nd

    1) Saint-Louis___+6___1ST HALF over Louisville

  30. #30
    Ratzz
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ratzz View Post
    – March 22nd

    1) Saint-Louis___+6___1ST HALF over Louisville
    aargh.. except for this one kid (McCall), the pick was fine.. Louisville ONLY scored 25 Pts..
    *it was so aggravating.. this one player Mccall.. kept shooting, and shooting and shooting.. this kid goes 1-7 for 2pts.

    rest of the Saint-Louis shot 40% from the field in the 1H,
    this indulgent/undisciplined kid took over and ran 'em into the ground..

    NO MORE kids. Pros only. Pros are hard enough.

  31. #31
    Ratzz
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    *– March 22nd

    25) UTA___–1.5___1ST QTR** vs. Orlando

  32. #32
    Ratzz
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    – March 23rd

    26) MIN___–0.5___1ST QTR** vs. Phoenix

  33. #33
    Ratzz
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    \ – March 23rd

    27) WAS___pk___1ST QTR** vs. Denver

  34. #34
    Ratzz
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    – March 23rd

    28) MIL___+2.5___1ST QTR** vs. Sacramento

    i have been impressed with the Bucks last two games..
    played their hearts out vs. POR and GSW..

    Kings are not as good as either of those opponents//
    i think they can at least start strong..

    maybe Kings 2H, but early i think that MIL looks okay

  35. #35
    Ratzz
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tabloreen View Post
    Good luck!
    thank you Tabloreen,

    hope to keep the flow going.. *let's see!


    cheers – ®*

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