[hels]

Since the season began I have become quite a fan of betting NBA Live on Pinnacle. At the start of the season I was losing and losing lots. It seemed as if whatever the trend was it would turn and go the other way. Anyways, I started to become quite disappointed and realised that I completely sucked at playing NBA Live. Then I got to thinking about not even looking at the game and instead just watching the various line movements. I thought "if the O/U prior to the game is set at 200 then one will likely expect the final totals to equal ~200."

With this thinking in mind I decided to try it for the first time tonight for the Bucks/Bulls and GS/Indiana. The Original lines for Bucs/Pacers were 193 and Bucks -3.0. I ended up getting bets down for O181 (in 2nd quarter) and Bucks +7.5 (at half). For GS/Indiana opening lines were 228 and GS -2.5 I played it at O221 (near end of 1st) and GS +3.5 (in the 2nd)

Anyways, I was successful in all 4 and have never had this type of success ever. I feel that either I've been blessed with beginners luck or am on to something. So my main questions are there, are there strategies or systems out there that people use for playing live? Are there specific numbers to go by? Has anyone tried this strategy before? etc. etc. etc.

Any info on this topic would be wonderful!!

[ztballer]

Depends, some teams on b2b tired legs catch up with them but it is a good strategy if you play the right teams eg Knicks always seem to try and catch up in the 2H even if they are down 50 points at the half, other teams will just give up

[suicidekings]

Since the season began I have become quite a fan of betting NBA Live on Pinnacle. At the start of the season I was losing and losing lots. It seemed as if whatever the trend was it would turn and go the other way. Anyways, I started to become quite disappointed and realised that I completely sucked at playing NBA Live. Then I got to thinking about not even looking at the game and instead just watching the various line movements. I thought "if the O/U prior to the game is set at 200 then one will likely expect the final totals to equal ~200."

With this thinking in mind I decided to try it for the first time tonight for the Bucks/Bulls and GS/Indiana. The Original lines for Bucs/Pacers were 193 and Bucks -3.0. I ended up getting bets down for O181 (in 2nd quarter) and Bucks +7.5 (at half). For GS/Indiana opening lines were 228 and GS -2.5 I played it at O221 (near end of 1st) and GS +3.5 (in the 2nd)

Anyways, I was successful in all 4 and have never had this type of success ever. I feel that either I've been blessed with beginners luck or am on to something. So my main questions are there, are there strategies or systems out there that people use for playing live? Are there specific numbers to go by? Has anyone tried this strategy before? etc. etc. etc.

Any info on this topic would be wonderful!!

Absolutely. You can get some amazing lines in live, if you're quick. Looks like you crushed those lines today. Nice job!

However, you don't get those favourable lines in every game. Today featured two very unpredictable games, featuring weaker teams teams. Tomorrow features games with four much more consistent teams that are strong defensively, so I doubt you'll get such good deals. Actually, now that I think about it, you're probably going to find the best value on the days with the least amount of games and/or most variable teams.

In my experience, live betting is much more useful in the first half than the second, and if the game follows along roughly with what the quarter and half lines were, you won't likely find value. The best chance you have to succeed means having a game plan in advance. For me, that's an idea of where I want the line to move to as an acceptable minimum, and stats that show the tendencies of teams early in the game (ie: teams that start fast/slow? higher scoring in the 1H or 2H?).

Good luck with this.

[joanapoker]

hels,

is just like regular betting! you just got lucky that all selections cashed! At the begin of the second qrt you could had played GSW at +6.5 or even the moneyline @4.00 (they were losing by ~15) and made even more money!

But yesterday for eg. I've played Memphis +1 when they were winning by 8 at 1st qrt, and they start killing the clippers....but then what happened?? well u all know.....7-33 4th qrt!!!

My advise,
start doing a record on ur live bets (I also make one for myself, and last year I've losted money on that) and maybe if you find urself on something good you can start take even more advantage

[hels]

Thanks for all of the feedback as it has given me lots to think about!!!

I totally agree with you joana and I understand your play with Memphis in the 1st quarter. That is something I would have grabbed onto as well and I know that's why I was unsuccessful. I was only looking at the immediate scores/trends in the game and not the big picture of the WHOLE game.

This is why I'm only making plays based on the difference of the final Pre-Game line and not totally on what has occurred in the game so far. For the O/U totals I do take not of the pace of the game and is the style of play, use of the shot clock, fouls etc. likely going to change.

I'll keep track of my plays in this thread as they occur tonight and I will definitely keep a record. Any other tips/comments are always welcome as everyone here has so much to offer!

[hels]

Closing lines for Celts/Cats were 177 and Cats +3.5

Made my first play of the night 1 unit on Cats +8.5 at the end of the 1st. O/U was at 180 so I layed off as it's not enough difference

[hels]

Made another play of 1 unit on Cats +10 halfway thru the 2nd at +100.
My first play at +8.5 was at -108.

As I say, these are primarily based on the closing lines and any 'major' consequences (which there haven't been any) BOL everyone!!

[suicidekings]

I got that same Bobcats +10 (+100) for one unit. Not looking great now, but i really don't see how their current 28% shooting can continue for the entire game.

[Tsonga]

i have a celtics ml from the first quarter...should i be worried?

[suicidekings]

i have a celtics ml from the first quarter...should i be worried?

Ha...

[GELATINOUS CUBE]

Well if one team is winning. Do you bet them second half, figuring oh, they are playing good tonight?
Or do you bet the losing team, thinking, well I get a better game spread value, and the team in the lead will probably relax.

Same with over/under. Do you figure high scoring games will stay high?
or do you figure well, they have enough points already, and take the second under and vise versa with low scoring games?

I think I know the answer to these questions, but not really.