Basically with that one you're going against the public (and books) overall tendencies by betting on a shitty away dog having a bad season going up against a home favorite that has another game after this one at home (i.e., the home fav is mentally overlooking it off and thinking the match will be an easy pounding, essentially a trap game).
I modded it to eliminate early matchups in the season and late matchups, as the psychology for both of those timeframes is far different than the grind of the mid-season, especially towards the end when a strong team is in the middle of their playoff fight.
Also, you have to watch that the game isn't a TNT game, or a big TV game, because the home fav will definitely show up and pound the dog if there's a national audience watching.
But even with those caveats it's a winner year after year, and it's easy to see why.
Those are the scenarios and systems I enjoy playing, because the filters are minimal and the logic is strong in terms of "why" the results are the way they are. I stay away from the "88% Win ATS, 17-1" systems because the sample size is way too small and the win rate is way too high.
I just want to scrape out 60%, I'm not greedy.
Well maybe a little...