[DuncHen22]

Trying out my new NBA system I spent the entire weekend working on. Backtested it on two teams last season and it had a combined 38-13 record (75%)! It was 19-10 for the Celtics and 19-3 for the Hawks. Those are the only 2 teams I tried it on. I know it's still not a big sample but it's a start.

I started those at 20 games in but so far this year, starting 10 games in, it's 6-1 and since I'm impatient I thought I'd give it a shot now.

Confidence rating (low to high)
*
**
***
****
*****
For Monday 11/23:

Bulls vs Blazers; Blazers -7 (buy 3 pts to -4). **

Only 2 games have the spreads out so far. I'll check back tomorrow to see if I can add any games.

I would play the Bucks against the Spurs if Bogut wasn't injured, but it's too risky now.

[Saleen]

good picks but i like Mill. againts San Anotnio ,i think u got it wrong. well anyway good luck

[DuncHen22]

I agree with you on Mil, I'm just saying I wouldn't put any money on it because I am not confident enough with it.

By the way, I haven't backtested it at all, but I just used this system on this week's NFL picks and it went 5-1! It's picking Texans -4 tomorrow. ***

[DuncHen22]

EDIT: Now that the rest of the spreads are up I will edit my picks.

NBA 4 point teaser:
Bulls vs Blazers; Blazers -3
Clippers vs T-Wolves; Clippers -1.5

NFL: Titans vs Texans; Texans -4

[DuncHen22]

EDIT: Now that the rest of the spreads are up I will edit my picks.

NBA 4 point teaser:
Bulls vs Blazers; Blazers -3
Clippers vs T-Wolves; Clippers -1.5

NFL: Titans vs Texans; Texans -4

[DuncHen22]

NBA went 2-0 today! 8-1 total. 0-1 on NFL today but still 5-2. It's looking good so far.

I'm not surprised I lost the NFL game seeing as the Titans have come a long way since their first 6 games. It seemed like a fair bet, though. I'll be back tomorrow for more NBA picks.

[DuncHen22]

11/24 PICKS:

***7PT TEASER:
NY VS LAL; LAL -6
NJ VS DEN; DEN -6
IND VS TOR; IND +12
**4PT TEASER:
NY VS LAL; LAL -9
NJ VS DEN; DEN -9

System said IND was okay if I bought 7, DEN if I bought 3, and LAL if I bought 4. I set up these teasers as this is the most profitable way to play these games.

[DuncHen22]

It looks like the NHL works with this system too. It went 8-2 yesterday without even setting a factor limit. (I think it would have been about 6-1 or 5-1 with the limit).

So Add:
**Montreal -135
(normally this would get 3 stars but since it's my first time trying NHL it only gets 2)

[vymagic10]

wizadrds

[Franchise2]

Looks good. Keep cashin

[DuncHen22]

11/24 PICKS: ***7PT TEASER: NY VS LAL; LAL -6 WIN NJ VS DEN; DEN -6 WIN IND VS TOR; IND +12WIN **4PT TEASER: NY VS LAL; LAL -9WIN NJ VS DEN; DEN -9WIN System said IND was okay if I bought 7, DEN if I bought 3, and LAL if I bought 4. I set up these teasers as this is the most profitable way to play these games.

How cool is that?! System says only play Indiana if its +12 and they lose by 11. System says only play Lakers if it's -9 and they win by 10!
Plus, Montreal won, giving me another NHL win. 5-0 NBA tonight (although I'll only count it as 3-0 as there were only 3 games)

[DuncHen22]

NBA:
**POR -11.5 (Bought +1 pt)
***4pt Teaser:
POR -8.5 (vs NJ)
DEN -4.5 (vs MIN)
GS +17.5 (vs SA)
**** 7pt Teaser:
POR -5.5 (vs NJ)
DEN -1.5 (vs MIN)
GS +20.5 (vs SA)
***7pt Teaser:
SAC +2.5 (vs NY)
DEN -1.5 (vs MIN)
GS +20.5 (vs SA)

NHL:
**Parlay:
PIT (vs MON)
ANA (vs CAR)
TB (vs TOR)

[tuscani]

Keep it going DuncHen22!!!

[Time2Score]

Very nice!! Do you only play teasers or do you have a system that works for straight bets?

[venge]

very nice!! Do you only play teasers or do you have a system that works for straight bets?

^^
this

[AaronLBF]

Same question, do you have anything for straight bet dh22

[DuncHen22]

My system works for straight bets too, it's just that there aren't any games that can be played today without buying points. And teasers help you get the most for your money when buying points.

For example, I could have played Denver and/or Golden State today as a straight wager by buying 3 points, but why not combine them to get a better payout?

If I only played straight wagers I wouldn't be able to play everyday, which I like to do if I can. I backtested this system on Atlanta and Boston from last season and I was able to play 51 games as straight wagers between the two teams (and the record for those games was 38-13 (75%)).

And as for today, the numbers are close enough to take Portland straight. I played it safe and bought a point to get the system's numbers just above the threshold.

[Time2Score]

I see thanks for the explanation, sounds like your system is pretty solid! I'll be following your season thread, hopefully I can help with somethings here and there.

[DuncHen22]

Thanks, Time2Score! And I'd love your help and input whenever you have it.

Looks like I lost my NHL parlay though, as the Lightning lost. What sucks is that was my strongest game today. Obviously that's going to happen sometimes though.

[Sumo]

Looks like all your NBA bets are gonna come in strong. Well done indeed. I was a fool and added Hou +4.5 to your **** parlay to plump the price up a bit and wagered a fair bit on it. If I stuck with the original i'd be a happy man right now. Too greedy. I look forward to your next! Will they always be on this thread?

[DuncHen22]

Sumo, thanks a bunch! And yeah, I'll keep this thread going with my picks.

Also, I'm not going to tell you not to bet any additional games, but if you're a believer in this system you probably shouldn't add any others cuz I'll always post the ones my system says I should play. I don't blame you for adding that game though. If I didn't have this system I probably would have done the same. Who could've seen that blowout coming?

Anyway, here are today's results:
**POR -11.5 (Bought +1 pt) LOSS (BY 1.5PTS)
***4pt Teaser:WIN
POR -8.5 (vs NJ)
DEN -4.5 (vs MIN)
GS +17.5 (vs SA)
**** 7pt Teaser: WIN
POR -5.5 (vs NJ)
DEN -1.5 (vs MIN)
GS +20.5 (vs SA)
***7pt Teaser:WIN
SAC +2.5 (vs NY)
DEN -1.5 (vs MIN)
GS +20.5 (vs SA)
NHL:
**Parlay: LOSS
PIT (vs MON) WIN
ANA (vs CAR)WIN
TB (vs TOR)LOSS

NBA 4-1
NHL 2-1

Unfortunately the Tampa NHL game I lost was my strongest bet. But that's gonna happen sometimes. I'm not 100% confident in my NHL system yet because I'm still trying to find a good threshold. It seems to work though.

[DuncHen22]

I just updated my records in my signature so you can see my overall numbers now.

Also, I just wanted to add that if you are going to follow this system (and just know I am not guaranteeing any results, I'm just sharing what I'm doing), you can play the games however you like. The games and their respective spreads are what count, but you can set up teasers or parlays or play them straight or do whatever with those games. I just set them up how I think will be most profitable for me.

Basically, how it works is I enter the teams' data and the spread and the system puts out a number for me. The number it gives is arbitrary but consistent so I set a threshold that seems to be the most successful. I only play games that are higher than my set threshold (which is 9... that means nothing but I thought I'd tell you anyway). If the number is lower than 9, I manipulate the spread to see if I can get it to 9 or above. If I can do that, that tells me how many points I can or should buy.

Hope that makes things a little clearer. Any other questions, comments, or suggestions, let me know.

[Time2Score]

Very good catch today DH!! I didnt get my teaser in today so i was stuck with straight bets. I ran with Cavs -3 1H and Cavs -5 at the game. I was having trouble accessing this thread for some reason so i was unable to get a post up here to share with you. I'll try to do a better job of posting up some of my picks incase you find any of them interesting. Any ideas for tomorrow though? I was thinking Hawks and the Jazz.

[DuncHen22]

Nice call on the Cavs game, Time2!

Not sure yet on the Hawks-Magic game but I like the Jazz. My system is putting it at -3 though, so -7 might be too high. I'm not saying the Jazz won't win by 7 or more, I'm just saying it's not above the threshold. Then again, neither were the Cavs so obviously it doesn't catch all the games. That's why I'd like to hear your input (and others') as well.

It looks like the Hawks game is going to be even closer. I think the only way I'll be able to play tomorrow's games is by doing a 2-team 6-7pt teaser. I’ll get back to you on my NBA picks later.

In the meantime: Here are my NFL games if you're interested:
**GB vs DET; GB -11.5 (bought 2 points)
***NYG vs DEN; NYG -6.5
**OAK vs DAL; DAL -13.5

To my surprise, the strongest bet is the Dallas game and the weakest is the Green Bay game, that is, according to my system. After seeing the last 2 games from Dallas I don't know if I trust that but I'm going to go with it. I parlayed these picks as well, and put a 6pt teaser on it to try and cover any loses if it doesn't go my way.

As for NHL games:
Columbus vs Ottawa
Los Angeles vs Vancouver
Parlayed these 2 teams.

Good luck everyone, and Happy Thanksgiving!

[DuncHen22]

So I found a small problem in my system which was causing it to not let me play many games straight (hence all the teasers). Obviously it was working, but I was missing out on potential games that I should be able to call.

I fixed the problem so you should start seeing more straight wager games without buying points (or at least fewer points). It appears I wouldn't have lost any games I have played so far if I had this system going the whole time, but I would have been able to call more games and have fewer teasers.

Also, I just want to say that my NBA system is by far the strongest. I don't quite trust my NFL or NHL system fully but I'll keep working on them.

I'm not playing either NBA game today. They are too risky.

[Time2Score]

Hey DH sorry for not posting back in a while. I've been having trouble accessing threads on the forums for some weird reason. But hopefully that's all fixed up now. Thanks for keeping me posted even if i was unable to access the thread! Really appreciate your insights but i wasn't able to get any bets in today. I like your football picks i would have taken the same ones in straight up bets if i had the opportunity to. Its nice how you mix up all sports into your thread, unique in a way, but enjoyable to read and look into when the stress over NBA picks are over. Lots of games coming up tomorrow I'll try to get some info up before i head out to dinner.

[Time2Score]

So here's some of the picks that really stick out at me but this is without really looking closely at all angles and stats, this is just by watching previous games and small side things...

Knicks @ Nuggets -13
Cavs -5 @ Bobcats
Cavs @ Bobcats Under 187
Phoenix -10 @ Twolves
Phoenix @ Twolves Under 215
Grizzlies +12 @ Blazers
Nets @ Kings -5

Please share if you have any comments!! Thanks!!!

[slumpbuster84]

Good stuff. Keep it up!

[DuncHen22]

I like those picks, Time2. I have pretty much the same teams but I'll probably buy a few points here and there to make it fit my system. The strongest one is the Suns game, as my system likes that one straight up. Portland, Sacramento, and Denver all need about 2 points to make it a strong bet so I may combine those into a 4pt teaser. The only way I can do the Cavs game is if I buy 5 pts on Charlotte to make them +9.5. I'll probably just stay clear of that one as there are plenty of other games to play.

I'm not doing any over/under stuff. I'm still working out this system and don't have time to look into calling totals. You can keep posting yours though and if you're doing well with them I may take your picks too.

I know you didn't pick Boston but I wanted to tell everyone to stay away from them. Not only does my system not like that game unless you buy 7pts, but the Celts are 0-6 ATS the last 6 games and have only won 2 in the last 12 ATS.

So all I have so far:
***Suns vs TWolves; Suns -9.5
***4pt teaser:
Nuggets -9
Blazers -7.5
Kings -1

As for NHL, there are quite a few that fit the system, but I'm only playing the top 4 on this list:
***Philadelphia (vs Buffalo)
***Chicago (vs Anaheim)
****Atlanta (vs Carolina) Strong bet and line is only -110 right now
***Florida (vs Toronto)
**Nashville (vs St. Louis)
*San Jose (vs Edmonton)

Today was another good day for me. I went 2-1 on NFL, and so far 1-0 in NHL, but the Canucks are up 3-1 with 11min left in the game. Unfortunately I didn't make money on the day because I got greedy and overconfident with my parlays. I need to just stay away from those for now or at least make sure I can still make money with 2 wins when playing 3. I should have been able to see the Giants losing too, after hearing that they were whining about playing in Denver on Thanksgiving. What a bunch of babies. Anyway, I'm still happy with it as my system still seems to work in the NHL, NFL, and NBA.

Sorry for the long post but there was a lot to be said. I'll be back later tomorrow as more odds start coming in for the NBA games.

Good luck everyone!

[aznxangel19]

Good luck to everyone's picks! =)

[Time2Score]

I like those picks, Time2. I have pretty much the same teams but I'll probably buy a few points here and there to make it fit my system. The strongest one is the Suns game, as my system likes that one straight up. Portland, Sacramento, and Denver all need about 2 points to make it a strong bet so I may combine those into a 4pt teaser. The only way I can do the Cavs game is if I buy 5 pts on Charlotte to make them +9.5. I'll probably just stay clear of that one as there are plenty of other games to play.

I'm not doing any over/under stuff. I'm still working out this system and don't have time to look into calling totals. You can keep posting yours though and if you're doing well with them I may take your picks too.

I know you didn't pick Boston but I wanted to tell everyone to stay away from them. Not only does my system not like that game unless you buy 7pts, but the Celts are 0-6 ATS the last 6 games and have only won 2 in the last 12 ATS.

So all I have so far:
***Suns vs TWolves; Suns -9.5
***4pt teaser:
Nuggets -9
Blazers -7.5
Kings -1

As for NHL, there are quite a few that fit the system, but I'm only playing the top 4 on this list:
***Philadelphia (vs Buffalo)
***Chicago (vs Anaheim)
****Atlanta (vs Carolina) Strong bet and line is only -110 right now
***Florida (vs Toronto)
**Nashville (vs St. Louis)
*San Jose (vs Edmonton)

Today was another good day for me. I went 2-1 on NFL, and so far 1-0 in NHL, but the Canucks are up 3-1 with 11min left in the game. Unfortunately I didn't make money on the day because I got greedy and overconfident with my parlays. I need to just stay away from those for now or at least make sure I can still make money with 2 wins when playing 3. I should have been able to see the Giants losing too, after hearing that they were whining about playing in Denver on Thanksgiving. What a bunch of babies. Anyway, I'm still happy with it as my system still seems to work in the NHL, NFL, and NBA.

Sorry for the long post but there was a lot to be said. I'll be back later tomorrow as more odds start coming in for the NBA games.

Good luck everyone!

Nice picks, I like your teaser but hopefully I can find a way to play it. If not I'm stuck riding out straight bets again I'm gonna follow you on your top 3 NHL picks (2x) probably. Phoenix seems to be a really nice strong play, but I'm a little worried about Denver putting up -13. I just hope NY is still tired, this is their 5th game in 7 days and in Denver's high altitude seems like they'll still be worn down. Just gotta hope they play like they did against the Twolves. I'll keep posting as time goes along too.

[Sumo]

Hey DuncHen got on your NHL picks (Ottawa & Vancouver) for the parlay and did me well. Cheers!

[Time2Score]

K so my friday bets seem to go as followed...
3 Team Parlay: Cle, Phx, Sac
Cle 1H/Cle Game
Phx 1H/Phx Game
Nuggets 1H
Kings Game

Also some other bets i'm playing is...
NHL:
Phil Game
Chicago Game
Atlanta Game

College Football:
Alabama Game
Boise Game
Miami Game

Thanks for the NHL Picks DH, let me know what you think about my revised picks or if you want some explanations I'd be glad to type some out!

[ingem64]

K so my friday bets seem to go as followed...
3 Team Parlay: Cle, Phx, Sac
Cle 1H/Cle Game
Phx 1H/Phx Game
Nuggets 1H
Kings Game

Also some other bets i'm playing is...
NHL:
Phil Game
Chicago Game
Atlanta Game

College Football:
Alabama Game
Boise Game
Miami Game

Thanks for the NHL Picks DH, let me know what you think about my revised picks or if you want some explanations I'd be glad to type some out!

Hey, Time2score!!!
Make your own thread with your picks!!!
This is not your threat for presenting picks.
Many, many people wants to follow Dunchan22!!!

[DuncHen22]

Time2, I think ingem brings up a good point in that this thread will just get too confusing for everyone if a bunch of people start sharing all of their picks.

I want to hear your picks though so how about you start a new thread and put a link on here and I can go there to look? That way we can comment on each other's threads without bogging people down with too many picks.

As for your picks today, they sound good. Are those all straight up, or ATS? My only concern is the Cavs game only because it wasn't strong enough for me to bet and I didn't do any other research on it. IMO, it's a good bet though as long as the Cavs have a no injured starters.

But yeah, lets keep discussing this in your thread. Good Luck!