1. 12-27-13 06:22 PM #36
    t-wizzle
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    Quote Originally Posted by No coincidences View Post
    Have you ever tried just playing the ML on dogs and then laying the points with the favorite on certain games at certain numbers? Of course you'd have to come up with your own formula, but I'd be interested to see how many times the spread matters vs. just hitting the ML.

    No I haven't. My personal rule of thumb is generally only to take single-digit dogs if I think they will win the game. Of course there's games like last night where I more just wanted some action but I think that rule kind of applies to where you are going with this.

    The other thing is to be able to recognize when a number is going to be sharp. Even though I took Warriors the other night I felt the same way about that as I did about Grizzlies last night. Just kinda knew it was going to be right around a 3 point win for GSW (they won by 2 but if you saw that game it could have easily been a 2, 3, or 4 point win). I don't particularly see any games that stick out like that tonight.
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  2. 12-27-13 06:29 PM #37
    No coincidences
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    Quote Originally Posted by t-wizzle View Post
    No I haven't. My personal rule of thumb is generally only to take single-digit dogs if I think they will win the game. Of course there's games like last night where I more just wanted some action but I think that rule kind of applies to where you are going with this.

    The other thing is to be able to recognize when a number is going to be sharp. Even though I took Warriors the other night I felt the same way about that as I did about Grizzlies last night. Just kinda knew it was going to be right around a 3 point win for GSW (they won by 2 but if you saw that game it could have easily been a 2, 3, or 4 point win). I don't particularly see any games that stick out like that tonight.
    Denver/NO is interesting. I see no reason why the Pelicans shouldn't handle this team, especially with Faried being out. I'm sure it will magically come down to the last possession, though.
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  3. 12-27-13 06:33 PM #38
    t-wizzle
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    Quote Originally Posted by No coincidences View Post
    Denver/NO is interesting. I see no reason why the Pelicans shouldn't handle this team, especially with Faried being out. I'm sure it will magically come down to the last possession, though.

    I liked Nuggets with Pelicans coming off a west coast trip but not crazy about it. I have been fading Denver all year.
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