[amarius87]

good analysis, was thinking the same... only spread that actually stands out to me today..

[Supinoku]

Bulls vs Knicks 02/03

This is an early game in Sunday`s schedule. So far this season New York has been struggling in all of their early games, often finding themselves in a big hole already after the 1st quarter. To everyone surprise, even after losing Derrick Rose yet to another season ending injury, the Bulls have managed to keep their level of play and quality intact. They are holding 4th position in the East and have a similar 32-26 record as do the Raptors (currently 3rd).

Of course being 3rd or 4th is about the maximum the Bulls can hope for and they are far behind the Heat and the Pacers. Yet it is still impressing that they are likely to have a homercourt advantage for 1st round of the play-offs. The Bulls got a quality win against the Mavericks 2 days ago and have now won 8 of their last 9 games. Those wins also include the Nets, Warriors and Hawks. With a double digit deficit at some point against the Mavericks, the Bulls did show what they are made of. They kept high scoring Dallas only on 15 points during the 4th quarter and secured 9 point win.

New York is of course awful or terrible or just pathetic. Whatever the word you choose it has been crazy down slide for the team. They have lost 8 of their last 9 games and last 2 games have been classic blowouts. It is not only losing, but also the lack of energy, passion or intesity. With players having problems on and off the court, most of the time they look like zombies. Being in such state meeting the Chicago Bulls is probably the worst possible opponent for them. Especially in an away game. The Bulls rarely fail to bring the energy, which nowadays clearly is enough to blow away the Knicks. Chicago to cover -6 points with 6/10 units.

gl

[Supinoku]

Pistons vs Knicks 04/03

Prediction about the Knicks struggles proved to be spot on yesterday. They will be playing back-to-back away game tonight and there`s no reason to believe anything will change over night.

Those who even care to watch the Knicks games can see, that the players have lost all their interest. Rightfully so, since 5 games out of the play-offs with only 23 games remaining making to the play-offs feels like a mission impossible. Especially considering how they are playing at the moment. The changes have to be made and they must start with changing the coach. Sometimes players fold for their head-coach and that`s what it looks to have happened here. Woodson needs to be sacked. Will it happen already this season – who knows (probably not even James Dolan himself), but before it happens the Knicks will maintain their current level (translation: they will suck).

Detroit is only 23-36, but it is still better than New York`s record. Which gives them more hopes to sneak into the play-offs. The Pistons know they can`t lose home games against teams like the Knicks, so expect them to give their full effort tonight. They have lost 4 games in a row, but they have played against strong West teams (DAL, GSW, SAS and HOU) and they have been in contention in all of these games. With having an advantage of fersh legs, home court and meeting the team with zero heartbeat it should be enough for the Pistons to cover -4.0 points.

gl

[Supinoku]

Cavaliers vs Spurs 04/03

With play-offs starting in about 6 weeks, teams are starting to prepare for the late season push. That includes building up the team chemistry while using key players in a careful matter to avoid some stupid injuries. The Spurs as defending Western Conference champions (and coached by the genius) are of course the masters of making sure they click at the right time. The Cavaliers on the other hand are struggling with injuries and only have tiny outside chances to make it to the play-offs.

Cleveland is actually 6 games behind the Hawks for the final play-off spot in the East. With a record of 24-37 and only 21 games remaining thats a huge hole. They also will miss Anderson Varajeo and have Dion Waiters listed as probable. With 4 losses of last 6 games the Cavaliers have lost all their momentum they had going before the All-Stars break. They did have a huge win against the Thunder a week ago, but double digit loss against the Grizzlies underlines their inability to sustain the quality.

The Spurs are getting their key players back in their lineup. Kawhi Leonard has now played in 3 games after missing more than a month. Tony Parker game back from injury and played in their previous games. That means that the Spurs have no injuries to report and they are very dangerous team again. The Spurs have won 6 of their last 7 games and knowing how tight it is in the top of the Western Conference they want to keep winning. The difference in quality and in momentum is huge here, so the -6.5 line should be covered by the Spurs.


GL

[aussieH]

Nice read. Good luck

[Supinoku]

Trailblazers vs Hawks 05/03

The Trailblazers suffered a tough loss in their previous game against the Lakers. Being huge favorites they started the game flat and allowed the Lakers to take the early double digit lead. It proved to be a shock Portland never recovered from and although they adjusted to the D`Antoni`s “7-seconds or less” offense and came back to make it a close fight, the damage was done.

The matter of a fact is they are still a way better team than the Hawks. With a record of 41 wins and 19 losses they hold a 5th seed in the Western Conference, while having an exactly the same record with the 3rd seed. Difference between finishing 3rd or 5th is of course huge. So the Trailblazers know they have to keep winning.
The Hawks have lost 3 games in a row and are dangerously slipping in the standings. Their play-off spot could be safe at the moment, but what they really want is to make it to 6th or even 5th seed in the East to avoid meeting the Heat or the Pacers in first round. In that sense 3-game losing streak and going 1-9 over the last 10 games speaks volumes about their sufferings. Most of these losses have been pretty bad.

Losing to the Lakers was a “mistake” that the Trailblazers will look to fix tonight. They did win 5 games before that and have historically been strong home court team. Portland to cover -9 points with 4/10 units.

GL

[vancityswag]

I like it

[pupung]

Nice

[Supinoku]

Here`s what happened: I took an early bet yesterday for the LAL/LAC game and even posted a preview of it on my webpage. Sadly the line now has moved a lot, which makes it a much worse bet to take ...

Lakers vs Clippers

Thursday night game. Home team vs home team this time as both teams of course play their home games in Staples Centre. There has been an obvious change in how the Lakers play now. They have a short list of players available and since Nash and Kobe are still out with injuries (old guys who would force team to slow tempo) they play all out run`n`gun style of game.

Key factor here is that the Clippers are not going to shy away from the style the Lakers will offer. In fact they will try to take advantage of the Lakers style and hit them back as fast as they can. With Chris Paul running their offense and Blake Griffin, DeAndre Jordan being monsters inside to take advantage with dunks, dunks, layups and dunks, the Clippers are well matched to keep the scoring pace with their hometown rivals. The Clippers have been scoring a lot lately. They have stayed under 100 points only once in 2014 (96 pts vs Memphis). That means their scoring average over last 13 games is 111,7 points. They will be happy to use that game to even raise that number.

This should be a fun game with both teams running and pushing the ball from steals, offensive rebounds and even made baskets. 218,5 points is a high line, but this game will have crazy uptempo offense and lack any defense. Over 218,5 points with 5/10 units @1.91

Line now is 225,5 points, which I think will still be covered, but I would put less units on it. Drop me PM if you want URL of my webpage.

[boydako13]

Tailing....what do u think of okc/pho game?..Thanks!

[vancityswag]

Murderous

[Supinoku]

Minnesota vs Detroit 07/03

Two unpredictable teams that can win and lose the game against any team from top to bottom. Both teams are also fighting for the play-off spot and although Minnesota has a record of 30-30 and Detroit only 24-37, Minnesota`s chances are more or less theoretical now (6 wins behind the 8th seed in the West) while Detroit still has a realistic chance (2 wins behind 8th seed in the East). That`s the difference between Eastern and Western Conference for you.

Minnesota has been favored by a relatively easy schedule as they have managed to beat Utah, Phoenix, Sacramento and Denver, recently losing to Portland and surprisingly also losing to New York. Signs are probably there that the hope is starting to fade. While Minnesota lost to New York by 12 points, the Pistons managed to beat the Knicks 2 days earlier by 11 points. On the contrary to the T`Wolves the Pistons have been victims of a tough schedule lately. They have stayed in the games against DAL, GSW, SAS, HOU and CHI, yet lost them all. Minnesota should be easiest of them all and if there will be a time for the Pistons to get an important win it is now.

This should be much more closer affair than the lines suggest. For sure Minnesota as a home team will have an upper hand here, but the Pistons have a bigger motivation and they need that win at all cost. This could be the deciding factor at the end. Odds for the Pistons to win are too good to stay away.Take Detroit moneyline @5 with 3/10 units.


GL

[Supinoku]

76rs vs Jazz 08/03

Losing streak for the 76ers now has grown to “impressive” 15 games. Last time they managed to win was in January when they beat the Celtics by a single point. Streaks happen and if you are a bad team losing streaks can take a life of their own. The brutal honest truth is that the 76ers want to lose and they have done everything short of scoring to their own basket to be successful in it.

Most of the 76ers losses have been blowouts not only by double digits, but by margings reaching to 20+ points. From those 15 games the 76ers have only covered +6 points grand total of 1 time. Their average losing margin over that stretch is 19,7 points. And yes, to make sure they keep losing they have traded their starting players for draft picks (Spencer Hawes). In short … what 76ers are doing is just massive tanking to get that 25% chance to have a top draft pick.

The Jazz are not better, but to their credit they at leats try to win (or do a better acting). with a 21-42 record they still have 6 more wins than the 76ers. Although it will be a back-to-back game for the Jazz it shouldn`t be a problem since their opponents are not playing like an NBA team. Last time those two met the Jazz won by 5 points, but ever since 76ers has gone worse and got rid of Spencer Hawes, who scored 16 points and took 11 rebounds in that game. Jazz to cover -6 points with 5/10 units.

GL

[Supinoku]

Lakers vs Thunder 09/03

Early Sunday game where the over/under line offered as of now should be seen as a mistake. 221 points is a lot, but the Lakers are running Mike D`Antoni`s "7 seconds or less" offense and we have seen their games covering this line with an ease over the last week. Just a reminder: their last 5 games have been 125-122 vs SAC, 107-106 @POR, 125-135 vs NOH, 94-142 vs LAC and 126-134 @DEN. Portland was the only team somewhat able to slow them down and stop the scoring madness.

The thing is OKC has players able to score at will against the Lakers non-existant offense. Likes of KD and Westbrook are happy to push the ball and answer LA`s early shot with a fast break dunk. This all should lead to a scoring feast where neither of the teams cares to play the D, because the Thunder knows they will beat the Lakers no matter what (then why not do it in Clippers style) and taking an early shot and allowing open layups seemingly is the only way the Lakers know how to play at the moment.

As an average the Lakers are allwoing their opponents 90 shots a game and taking 84,2 shots themselves. They are leading the league in shots allowed category. Not surprisingly both numbers are even much higher now. Over the last 5 games the Lakers have allowed 93.6 shots and taking 88.4 shots. That means their recent pace has been allowing 8 shots above their already high average per game. Add here extra free-throws they get from running and gunning and it is really difficult to see how this game could stay below 221 points ... unless "Mr. Pringles" dies and is replaced by a defensive minded coach. Take over 221 points with 7/10 units @1.91.

GL

PS! My advice is to take this line now as I fully expect it to be higher tomorrow when Vegas reacts

[Supinoku]

Line now 230.5 for OKC/LAL game. I just hope at least some of you took over 221.

[pupung]

Are u still betting over 230.5?

[Supinoku]

Are u still betting over 230.5?

I have my money on over 221. I think they will cover 230,5 points aswell, but it is not 7/10 unit bet, but more like 4/10 units.

[Aye J Mac]

221 was a good over for u

[Supinoku]

221 was a good over for u

Very very lucky. But mixed feelings cause most of over players likely lost ... and this game was just awful. OKC played like they were drunk ... and stoned at the same time.

[JSimon]

would love to get your website, but cant write pms yet. If you could send me a msg, that'd be great.

[pupung]

Any picks for todays game?