1. 12-04-13 05:23 PM #1
    Ace1727
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    NBA 3rd Qtr O/U

    Starting a new thing, trying to make it a speciality. Ran a test last night and went 2-0 but it was not documented so we will start from scratch tonight. BOL if you tail.

    12/4 - Under 49.5 points - Denver/Cleveland.
    Points Awarded:

    totallypsycho gave Ace1727 1 Betpoint(s) for this post.

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  2. 12-04-13 11:00 PM #2
    Ace1727
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    Under 49.5 in Denver/Cleveland 3rd quarter - WINNER!

    Back tomorrow for another play.
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  3. 12-05-13 04:12 PM #3
    Ace1727
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    Alright, here is what I have for tonight's games. 1-0 in posted plays on SBR.

    Under 47 - 3rd quarter of Nets/Knicks game.

    Bol
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  4. 12-05-13 08:11 PM #4
    Ace1727
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    Lost this one tonight.

    1-1 on post plays on SBR. Back at it tomorrow.
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  5. 12-06-13 10:41 AM #5
    Ace1727
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    Ended up taking the Bulls/Heat Under last night according to my numbers and hit! Won't count it towards my SBR record as I was not able to post it in time but here is the proof....

    Name: photo.jpg Views: 357 Size: 8.6 KB

    4-1 overall, 1-1 posted on SBR
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  6. 12-06-13 03:17 PM #6
    Ace1727
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    OK, here is what I have for Friday night games, 12-6-13...

    1-1 on plays posted on SBR

    Milwaukee/Washington - U47.5 - 3rd quarter
    Denver/Boston - U49.5 - 3rd quarter

    BOL
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  7. 12-06-13 03:28 PM #7
    brodie
    you got the juice now
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    Interesting. Can I ask what influences your picks?
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  8. 12-06-13 03:41 PM #8
    frugalgambler
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    I do not understand why you do not wait until HT to play your 3Q totals. You are not using the information from the 1H.
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  9. 12-06-13 03:43 PM #9
    brodie
    you got the juice now
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    ^my only guess is that the line could change during the game
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  10. 12-06-13 03:49 PM #10
    frugalgambler
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    My impression is that the 3Q/4Q totals lines do not change by much, but yeah that would be the only explanation.
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  11. 12-06-13 04:01 PM #11
    Ace1727
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    Quote Originally Posted by brodie View Post
    Interesting. Can I ask what influences your picks?
    I have tracked all the games so far this season for every team, so I have the average amount of points they give up and score and compare that to the opponent. Also take into consideration what team is at home, injuries, if they are coming off a back to back. Only loss so far was last night when the Knicks decided to score 34 in the 3rd. I was on the right side of that bet so I am okay with the loss. I also take into consideration that teams make adjustments at halftime to fix problems that creates a lower scoring 3rd quarter...most of the time.
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  12. 12-06-13 04:03 PM #12
    Ace1727
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    Quote Originally Posted by frugalgambler View Post
    I do not understand why you do not wait until HT to play your 3Q totals. You are not using the information from the 1H.
    I do not wait because I don't have the time to sit and track every game as it happens. I just plug the numbers into my system and take a educated guess based on that. Most 3rd quarters are lower scoring as teams aren't that pumped up coming out of halftime than they are starting a game with the home crowd etc...we will see how all this plays out. Maybe you are right and I should track the game as it happens, but you always run into the probability of the line changing at halftime.
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  13. 12-06-13 05:37 PM #13
    totallypsycho
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    interesting idea! i am looking forward to this. BOL
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  14. 12-06-13 09:59 PM #14
    Ace1727
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    Rough night tonight, 0-2 on the night. Lots of other games went under in the 3rd quarter. Remember, I'm just trying this new system out. If you tail, go slow until I get the system completely worked out. Back at it tomorrow.
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  15. 12-09-13 05:59 PM #15
    Ace1727
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    Sorry for the late plays....

    Taking Over 46.5 points in Orlando/Memphis 3rd quarter.

    BOL

    4-3 overall, 1-3 posted on SBR
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  16. 12-09-13 08:47 PM #16
    Ace1727
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ace1727 View Post
    Sorry for the late plays....

    Taking Over 46.5 points in Orlando/Memphis 3rd quarter.

    BOL

    4-3 overall, 1-3 posted on SBR
    Over 46.5 - Orlando/Memphis - 3rd Quarter - WINNER!

    Now 5-3 overall and 2-3 posted on SBR.

    Back at it tomorrow.
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  17. 12-10-13 04:16 PM #17
    Ace1727
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    Here is what I have for tonight...

    Under 51.5 - Lakers/Suns - 3rd Quarter.

    BOL
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  18. 12-10-13 11:25 PM #18
    Ace1727
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    Under 51.5 - Lakers/Suns - 3rd quarter - WINNER!

    6-3 overall, 3-3 posted on SBR.
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  19. 12-11-13 04:00 PM #19
    Ace1727
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    Here is what I have for tonight....

    Under 52.5 - 76ers/Minn - 3rd quarter.
    BOL
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  20. 12-11-13 10:34 PM #20
    Ace1727
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    Under 52.5 - Philly/Minn - 3rd qtr - WINNER!!

    7-3 overall, 4-3 posted on SBR.

    Back at it tomorrow.
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  21. 12-12-13 04:45 PM #21
    Ace1727
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    Here is what I have for tonight's games...

    Under 53 - Houston/Portland - 3rd quarter

    7-3 overall, 4-3 posted on SBR on 3rd quarter plays.

    BOL
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  22. 12-12-13 11:29 PM #22
    Ace1727
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    Well these 2 teams can't miss in the third quarter so we will lose this one. Smh
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  23. 12-13-13 06:18 PM #23
    Ace1727
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    Here is what I have for tonight that my system is telling me to take...

    Under 50.5 - Utah/Denver - 3rd quarter.

    7-4 overall, 4-4 posted on SBR
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  24. 12-13-13 09:53 PM #24
    Semper Fidelis
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    A shooting foul with literally 1 second left to play before the quarter ends??? Really??? What a horrible beat man, losing by the hook on a last second trash foul! This was a good play and should've won! Keep up the good work buddy, I feel like you're on to something here! On to the next day!
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  25. 12-13-13 10:12 PM #25
    Ace1727
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    Brutal loss tonight. But at least I know I was on the right side. Sorry if you tailed. On to tomorrow.

    7-5 now overall, 4-5 posted on SBR.
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  26. 12-13-13 10:49 PM #26
    mentorUS
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    Now is the game for WIN
    Houston Rockets/Golden State Warriors 3rd Quarter Under 53½ -110*
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  27. 12-13-13 10:59 PM #27
    killawookie
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    Gonna be close.. better hope for either a pull away for Houston or a shut down by GS
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  28. 12-13-13 11:25 PM #28
    Ace1727
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    Quote Originally Posted by mentorUS View Post
    Now is the game for WIN
    Houston Rockets/Golden State Warriors 3rd Quarter Under 53½ -110*
    Good win!
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  29. 12-13-13 11:29 PM #29
    mentorUS
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ace1727 View Post
    Good win!
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  30. 12-13-13 11:29 PM #30
    killawookie
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    Took U53 at +108.. nice hit
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  31. 12-13-13 11:31 PM #31
    mentorUS
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    Quote Originally Posted by killawookie View Post
    Took U53 at +108.. nice hit
    Very good +108
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  32. 12-16-13 05:54 PM #32
    Ace1727
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    Here is what I have for tonight...

    Under 50.5 - Lakers/Hawks - 3rd quarter

    7-5 overall, 4-5 posted on SBR.

    BOL
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  33. 12-16-13 08:12 PM #33
    Ace1727
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    Lost this one tonight.

    Back at it tomorrow.

    Will also be improving system.
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  34. 12-18-13 02:34 PM #34
    Ace1727
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    System improved....

    Leaning Under 47.5 - BOS/DET - 3rd quarter

    Boston avg. 21.92 points scored at home while Detroit allow 18.85 points
    Detroit avg. 21.92 points scored away from home while Boston give up 24.53 points....
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  35. 12-18-13 03:22 PM #35
    DOM-Ganador
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    I understand what you are trying to do, but 3Q scoring is heavily influenced by how the first 1/2 played out.

    If the first half in an NBA game is way under the #, then usually the 2nd half is on or above the #.

    Very rarely does it shy totally away from the mean.

    As I have stated before, when I am on the over for a game, the last thing I want to see is a 60 pt.1st Q. KISS OF DEATH.
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