[Jay Edgar]

Once again:

(a) Best days of this method for ’06-’07 are obviously behind us.

(b) Still tracking and charting the plays and results for studying this summer in the name of continuous improvement. But there is no recommendation from here that anyone follow the plays blindly (or even with one eye shut)

(c) Now at a total of +66 units for the year. Which is down from the high of +119 units. And which is back to about where things stood in mid-January.

Through Sunday 03.11.07

MONEYLINE PLAYS (risking 1u on dogs; betting to win 1u on favorites)
Sunday, 2-7, -5.70u
(SEA, LAC, BOS, ORL, SAC, MIA, IND, POR, LAX)
YTD 243-447, +39.74u
(since the ASB: 34-82, -25.97u)

SAME TEAMS ATS (1.05u to win 1.00u)
Sunday, 2-6-1, -4.30u
YTD 360-318 (.531) +26.10u
(since the ASB: 52-61 (.460) -12.05u)

POWER RATINGS OVER LAST TEN GAMES
1 SAN 80
2 DAL 72
3 UTH 69
4 MIA 64
5 CHI 62
6 CLE 62
7 PHI 57
8 HOU 57
9 MIL 57
10 PHX 55
11 DET 54
12 POR 53
13 GS 49
14 SAC 47
15 NY 46
16 ORL 46
17 TOR 46
18 SEA 45
19 WAS 44
20 DEN 44
21 LAC 43
22 NOK 43
23 MEM 42
24 ATL 42
25 NJ 41
26 BOS 39
27 LAX 36
28 MIN 35
29 CHA 35
30 IND 32

EDGAR LINES FOR 03.12.07
(favorite-spread/moneyline-dog)

CHA 2.8/133 over ORL

MEM 4.1/162 over NJ

MIL 6.1/220 over TOR

PHX 4.7/171 over HOU

GS 1.2/109 over DAL


STRIKE PRICES (5%-OFF MARKER)
(At this moneyline or better, team is a play both SU and ATS under 5%-ML-OFF method.)

ORL +158, CHA -112

NJ +195, MEM -137

TOR +270, MIL -182

HOU +206, PHX -143

DAL +129, GS +109

20%-OFF MARKER
(This moneyline is now 20% away from Edgar ML. Teams this strongly preferred by the Edgar Line have not performed as well as teams preferred by less.)

ORL +314, CHA +161

NJ +419, MEM +132

TOR +704, MIL +100

HOU +453, PHX +126

DAL +203, GS +200

[Jay Edgar]

Enjoying another drubbing from the Dallas Mavericks tonight, I decided to check the updated numbers for something I think of as "Messing With The Best."

The only objective way I have to identify the "best" is by my power ratings at the time.

So far this year, we are taking a beating making the method plays that have us opposing a team that is ranked in the top three in my power rankings on that day:

OPPOSING A TEAM POWER-RANKED IN TOP 3
Moneyline plays
22-89
-33.26u

ATS plays
50-56
(.471)
-8.80u

Those elite teams just don't lose, apparently. Magically eliminating all of those easily-identified-beforehand plays so far YTD would have us sitting at a sexy +108 units instead of the more pedestrian +66.

PLAYS AGAINST TEAMS POWER-RANKED 4th THROUGH 30th

Moneyline plays
221-358
+73.00u

ATS plays
310-262
(.542)
+34.90u

[bigboydan]

So much for the Lakers stepping up Sunday night against the Mavs uh Jay

[Dark Horse]

Looks like the Lakers may be letting it slide, like they did last year, so they can play the Suns instead of the Mavs or Spurs.

[Jay Edgar]

Phil doesn't seem too bothered by any of it, that's for sure.

Odom and Walton back this week, supposedly.

[Crayzee]

i know that numbers dont lie but looks odd to see phx that far down on the power rankings

[bigboydan]

looks like Memphis is the spirolena tonight too Jay.

[The HG]

i know that numbers dont lie but looks odd to see phx that far down on the power rankings

Right, that's obviously because Phoenix has been "taking it easy" vs the weaker teams they have played recently, which at this point in the season, is not a surprising thing to have happen. Of course, that will affect the numbers, since it's hard to include a factor for "but they could have won by 20 if they had wanted to". But perhaps not impossible.

[Jay Edgar]

Right, that's obviously because Phoenix has been "taking it easy" vs the weaker teams they have played recently, which at this point in the season, is not a surprising thing to have happen. Of course, that will affect the numbers, since it's hard to include a factor for "but they could have won by 20 if they had wanted to". But perhaps not impossible.

True. I do think that on the whole strength of schedule is a profitable thing to respect in the long run. Very few NBA teams can toy with their opponents. (Surely fewer actually can than those that may think they can.) PHX is, sort of, an exception. Monday night they schooled #8 Houston. Before that their opponents since the ASB were ranked:

23, 19, 23, 19, 30, 25 (loss), 30, 8, 28, 22

And their margin of victory in these games was nothing to write home about. Thus, their power rating, even while going 9-1, was not especially high.

[Jay Edgar]

% TEAM ATS ML
7 HOU LOSS -100
11 CHA WIN 114
19 MEM LOSS -100
29 GS WIN 320


Through Monday 03.12.07

MONEYLINE PLAYS (risking 1u on dogs; betting to win 1u on favorites)
Monday, 2-2, +2.34u
(CHA, MEM, HOU, GS)
YTD 245-449, +42.08u
(since the ASB: 36-84, -23.63u)

SAME TEAMS ATS (1.05u to win 1.00u)
Monday, 2-2, -0.10u
YTD 362-320 (.531) +26.00u
(since the ASB: 54-63 (.462) -12.15u)