[ctof]

i play mainly over/unders and then i have a system where i parlay the spread and the over under in the same game. its been working out quite nicely for me. i also bet heavily only 1st and 3rd quarters of games....im gonna be posting every bet i make in hopes of quintupling my money by christmas time so i can add a little bit to my tattoo. so far i started with $50 and im up to about $110, but im rounding off to a hundred just for a nice even start....so to everyone who decides to follow, enjoy, and feel free to chime in and let me know when im being stupid or you think theres something i should be looking at

[ctof]

tonights plays:

atlanta/portland over188
atlanta -3.5
orlando -12.5
milwaukee/dallas under193
parlay: atlanta -3.5 & atlanta/portland over188

all bets are $5 unless otherwise noted

starting bankroll on 11/16/09=$100

[ctof]

atlanta/portland over188 win
atlanta -3.5 win
orlando -12.5 loss
milwaukee/dallas under193 loss
parlay: atlanta -3.5 & atlanta/portland over188 win

all bets are $5 unless otherwise noted

starting bankroll on 11/16/09=$100todays plays +17
current bankroll=$117

[ctof]

tonights plays: atlanta/portland over188 win atlanta -3.5 win orlando -12.5 loss milwaukee/dallas under193 loss parlay: atlanta -3.5 & atlanta/portland over188 win all bets are $5 unless otherwise noted starting bankroll on 11/16/09=$100

days starting bankroll $100
+17 for the day
current bankroll $117

[ctof]

does anyone know why i cant edit my previous posts? you can do that on most forums and i utilize it A LOT since most of the time my first draft comes out making me looking like a ruh-tard

[Willie Bee]

does anyone know why i cant edit my previous posts? you can do that on most forums and i utilize it A LOT since most of the time my first draft comes out making me looking like a ruh-tard

It's because when you registered, the system detected you were part of the same household/IP as another poster at SBR and that placed you in the Post Review group. Look for an e-mail at your address from me at some point today and I'm sure we can clear that up.

[ctof]

It's because when you registered, the system detected you were part of the same household/IP as another poster at SBR and that placed you in the Post Review group. Look for an e-mail at your address from me at some point today and I'm sure we can clear that up.

thank you...yea, my roommate is a member as well

[ctof]

bets for tonight:

clippers/hornets total UNDER 192
denver -8.5
bulls/kings OVER 196.5
PARLAY: kings PK & kings/bulls OVER 196.5
warriors/cavs UNDER 213
thunder/miami OVER 185.5
clippers/hornets UNDER 195
suns/rockets UNDER 218
PARLAY: clippers ML & clipper/hornets UNDER 195


all bets are $5 unless otherwise noted

[maseda17]

I respect your conservative style. That said, I think you are going to find you are spinning your wheels with this method of betting. I think you will find far more success placing less, yet more substantial bets on games that you feel stronger about. I would save the $5 bet for parlays to try and hit it big. Just a thought, but regardless all the best to you.

[ctof]

i appreciate your perspective. i know that is the methodology of most successful gamblers out there. between last year and the beginning of this year i have noticed that the picks i am "sure" of are actually no better than the picks i only "think" will hit. i stay away from games where i cant put trends or logic behind them.

#1...clippers/hornets total UNDER 192--> the hornets cant really push the pace of the game without chris paul and the clippers have only put up triple digits against high scoring teams like the warriors or teams with a lot of scoring potential like the thunder...the hornets are neither
#3...denver -8.5...denver has not played in 4 days. they are at home (where they kick ass) and toronto lost a close game against the suns 2 days ago and are in the middle of a 4 game road trip...
#2...bulls/kings OVER 196.5...the kings push the pace like CRAZY and will control the flow of the game at home. if this were in chicago then i would go UNDER for sure, but the kings play well at home
PARLAY: kings PK & kings/bulls OVER 196.5...i always ask myself on these single game parlays...if the team who i pick to cover does cover, will they do it with offense or will they do it with defense. then i bet the over or the under accordingly. the kings are not gonna beat the bulls cause they played great defense. so im combining the kings WIN with the OVER cause the kings play best at an uptempo high scoring pace...paul westphal style
#4...warriors/cavs UNDER 213...i think the cavs will not allow the warriors to go bananas in their building. but the cavs should control the pace of the game and keep the scoring low cause they are at home and the warriors are without stephen jackson.
#6...thunder/miami OVER 185.5...i just think this is a low over/under. i dont have logic for this one, shoulda stayed away, but i got a feeling the thunder will give them a hard time at home...this is the game i feel weakest about...by far
clippers/hornets UNDER 195...see above
#5...suns/rockets UNDER 218...218 is just a HIGH over/under...i always bet the under when its at 215 or higher...i dont trust the rockets to score on a consistent basis
PARLAY: clippers ML & clipper/hornets UNDER 195...clippers are just better than the hornets. but not that much better so thay theyll blow them out of the water and drive the score up. if hornets want to win they better slow it down and grab rebounds and post of david west. he will slow this game down considerably....

ill rate these games on what i feel most confident about, and see if my "more confident" picks end up better. ill try and do that from here on out...as has been my experience i lose money when i limit my picks...i know basketball (played pro) and i know stats (engr degree) so i feel more confident playing more games and letting my overall knowledge of the game work itself out....but everyone feel free to chime in and let me know what your thoughts are on these games...1 will be most confident and then in descending order (only for strait bets...not parlays)

[Razz_Donkey]

As a NBA fan and someone who has a lot of tattoos I'm rooting for ya. Care to share the tat ideas?

[docrocker]

I dont like your Sac Pk over Bulls

[ctof]

I dont like your Sac Pk over Bulls

why? drop some knowledge on me...not saying youre wrong. just wanna hear why

[docrocker]

Ok... ill let you know a few things.
1st- Kings have won 4 in a row after starting 1-4. Look for the Kings to fall a little flat in tonights game.
2nd- Bulls top 7 players are much more dominate than Kings. Look for Noah to dominate Hawes, Nocioni to have a decent game with Deng out playing him. Rose over Evans Salmons over Udirh.
3rd- Miller and Slamons will have good games playing at their old home court.

Also Bulls usually give up 96 points per game against Sac 107. Look for Bulls to play tight defense and try to grind out the game and keep Sac below their averages and Bulls to take their first game out of a 6 game road trip.

[ctof]

Ok... ill let you know a few things.
1st- Kings have won 4 in a row after starting 1-4. Look for the Kings to fall a little flat in tonights game.
2nd- Bulls top 7 players are much more dominate than Kings. Look for Noah to dominate Hawes, Nocioni to have a decent game with Deng out playing him. Rose over Evans Salmons over Udirh.
3rd- Miller and Slamons will have good games playing at their old home court.

Also Bulls usually give up 96 points per game against Sac 107. Look for Bulls to play tight defense and try to grind out the game and keep Sac below their averages and Bulls to take their first game out of a 6 game road trip.

the bulls score 88pts a game on the road and the kings score 112 at home. but more importantly, chicago has a -3.5 pt diff and sacramento has a -.4....at home sacramentos differential is about +5 and chicagos pt diff on the road around -8....and noah wont dominate hawes, noah is a bust. hawes is averaging a half a black less and a few rebounds less. they average about the same in pts. noah is better but noah wont decide the game for you cause hes not a lock down defender and he doesnt score a lot of points. hes about the same as jason thompson. rose is better than evans and i love dengs game, i think hell do well. but for some reason nocioni pesters people, and ill always give the defender the advantage when 2 guys have played each other for years as deng and and noicioni have back in chicago. the kings have not played since friday so theres no reason to fall flat. they will be well rested. salmons will beat up on whoever gaurds him though....it just comes down to the fact that sac town plays really well at home and you have an illini logo as your avatar so you obviously love the bulls....thats why i stay away from betting on the mavs, cause ive loved them since the 3 J's

[ctof]

oh, and to docrocker. derron is the best PG in the league. weve grown up together since the 5th grade...just being a illini fan i thought we might find some common ground

[ctof]

As a NBA fan and someone who has a lot of tattoos I'm rooting for ya. Care to share the tat ideas?

as a huge bender fan, i will oblige you with a picture when i get a chance to upload them later...ive got my whole back done in japanese style. its my dog fighting a tiger and a samurai fighting an oni demon...i need to add in some wind bars and then im gonna get some foo dogs on my anterior delts as well.

[docrocker]

oh, and to docrocker. derron is the best PG in the league. weve grown up together since the 5th grade...just being a illini fan i thought we might find some common ground

I know i usually stay away from beating on my teams... but i think is a certain pick of the night... as for Derron, i agree i went to school with him at u of i... had a few classes with him... actually he signed my cast when i broke my foot in 05 with dee and head

[alzor]

Good luck ctof! Hope you have a winning day
I'm on Rockets -2

[ctof]

Good luck ctof! Hope you have a winning day I'm on Rockets -2

rockets have been surprising me. but im gonna need to see a little more before im on the bandwagon. but rick adelman is one of the best coaches in the league for sure with the job hes doing this year!!! ive loved that man since he coached the blazers

[ctof]

added:
cavs/warriors OVER 106 2H

[Jerm3462]

bets for tonight:

clippers/hornets total UNDER 192 (LOSS)
denver -8.5 (WIN)
bulls/kings OVER 196.5 (LOSS)
PARLAY: kings PK & kings/bulls OVER 196.5 (LOSS)
warriors/cavs UNDER 213 (LOSS)
thunder/miami OVER 185.5 (WIN)
clippers/hornets UNDER 195 (LOSS)
suns/rockets UNDER 218 (WIN)
PARLAY: clippers ML & clipper/hornets UNDER 195 (LOSS)
added:cavs/warriors OVER 106 2H (LOSS)


all bets are $5 unless otherwise noted

You might need to ask Ol' Saint Nick for that tatoo after tonight. A rough one. Sorry man

Clippers did ya in....me as well

[docrocker]

I'm sorry i couldnt convince you to go with the bulls....

[marabdl86]

Docroker make a thred of your daily plays. Really interested in your picks man

[chrisharvard01]

What are you feeding that thing??

[ATB515]

Betting 5 bucks a game wont get you anywhere. Gambling is too streaky. You have a better shot at getting to 500 by going all in 3 times.

[iceminers26]

Good luck turning it around bud.

[ctof]

i bet $5 a game right now, it will increase with every $25 increase in my bankroll. it was a rough night, but now im even from the night before. im going heavy tonight.... docrocker....i would still be on the kings again at home in this one, but you got it right. the clippers/hornets game just shows me i need to stay away from betting on terrible teams, even when they are playing MORE terrible teams. lesson learned. clippers are too unpredictable. thats why i stay away from the pacers, they can score a ton, but they will shoot 38% from the field on the reg. with that said i am betting UNDER 215 today on their knicks game. i dont trust both teams to have decent enough shooting nights in the same game to get to 215...will post all my plays later....oh, and im going super heavy on the hawks/heat game. miami played last night and odds are they wont play shit for defense tonight and the hawks are playing at home where they score like 115 a game....and skinner (my dog) gets eggs, rice, chicken necks/fat and dog food. and thats not me in the picture. that guy is about 5'6", so he makes skinner look even bigger (hes about my height, 6'5" when i stand him up all the way)

[ctof]

oh, and someone already posted my winnings and losses, so theres no need to. but it had me down $18....so right now:

current bankroll: $99
down $1

[ctof]

and the $500 is a goal. its not the be all/end all of this. honestly, if i can come out even then ill be ok. i wont be happy. but i love basketball and ive started to enjoy capping games. its just a ton of fun. i love watching games and following trends. i like posting plays, keeping track of my wins and losses, hearing other guys opinions, getting shit for bad picks, relishing great picks. theres so much to enjoy here. odds are im not gonna get to $500, but a truly realistic goal could be to double my money if i do this well. this is a marathon, not a sprint. anyone who treats it like the latter is gonna get burned, bad

[ctof]

todays picks...i decided to put damn near all my bankroll on the line. we'll see how it works out. i feel good about a couple of these. but you never know.

miami/atlanta OVER 192....$5
atlanta -7.5....$5
parlay: miami/atlanta OVER192 & atlanta -7.5....$30 to win $80
philly -3.5....$5
new york/indiana UNDER 214....$5
OK city/orlando OVER 189.5....$5
orlando -11.5....$5
LA clippers/memphis UNDER 201.5....$5
houston/minnesota OVER 199.5.....$10
cleveland -4.5.....$10
parlay: cleveland -4.5 & cleveland/washington UNDER 194.....$9 to win $20


well i think i said im playing most of my bankroll, actually it turns out im playing ALLLL of my bankroll. i mean if i go up in flames it better be in a blaze of glory!!! and tonight could be that night....one thing i dont get is that everyone is picking the heat to cover +8 and for the score to go under 195. i mean the hawks score 115 at home and they are playing with a days rest here. the heat played last night. historically teams play worse defense when playing in back to back games, AND throw in the fact that this game is a back to back WITH travel. miami is the team in this matchup that is being relied upon to keep the score low, but with everything just said i dont see them playing lock down defense....what does everyone think?

[maseda17]

Good luck tonight. You seem to have a lot of confidence in that Miami/Atlanta game. I am thinking about a parlay tonight of Washington with the ML and the Under. Seems like that line is down to -4 though, hopefully it will go up and the ML gets to over +200.

[ctof]

Good luck tonight. You seem to have a lot of confidence in that Miami/Atlanta game. I am thinking about a parlay tonight of Washington with the ML and the Under. Seems like that line is down to -4 though, hopefully it will go up and the ML gets to over +200.

I have too much confidence in that miami/atlanta game!!! this is where i **** up. i saw a game, i loved it initially and i still do. but i have to watch myself, cause when i put all my eggs into one basket like that i often shoot myself in the foot. thats why its better for me to spread it around fairly evenly. but whatever, cant change it now. plus everyone is on the heat to cover and the score to go under!!! im going against the grain on this one and it worries me. if youre gonna go with the cavs to cover i would do it now cause people are placing big money on them and i see the line getting up to 6.5 by game time

[ctof]

so no stopping thru to tell me im ****ing up and how?

[ctof]

miami/atlanta OVER 192....$5....WIN
atlanta -7.5....$5....WIN
parlay: miami/atlanta OVER192 & atlanta -7.5....$30 to win $80....WIN
philly -3.5....$5....LOSS
new york/indiana UNDER 214....$5...WIN
OK city/orlando OVER 189.5....$5....WIN
orlando -11.5....$5....WIN
LA clippers/memphis UNDER 201.5....$5....WIN
houston/minnesota OVER 199.5.....$10....LOSS
cleveland -4.5.....$10....LOSS
parlay: cleveland -4.5 & cleveland/washington UNDER 194.....$9 to win $20.....LOSS

overall starting bankroll: $100
days starting bankroll: $99
days winnings/losings: +$73
current bankroll: $173