Originally Posted by
Mocknroll
The trend I am starting to notice is the disparity of individual teams over/under records is indicating where books are setting the totals.
For example, Atlanta started the season 5-0 on overs. The number moved up slightly on their totals and they went 3-9 on overs through their next 12 including a stretch of 5 unders.
People usually stay on the train until it derails, so as long as they're winning with a team trend they aren't getting off it regardless of the number. Books will try and derail that train by moving the number against the trend, regardless of what the number should be. It's not about the number as much as it's about the percentage on either side of it on a nightly basis.
This is where I think the real indicators are.
I would expect it's in the books best interests to get people off the Pacers under train. I think tonight's game against Portland is set at least 5 points too low to scare people off the under, which along with the actual numbers is why I think the over is a solid play. I will also be looking at Indi overs through their next couple of games to see if there's any meat left on the bone so to speak.
Teams with lopsided total records that I think we start to see even out in the next few games are (over/under):
Boston 6-13
Charlotte 5-12-1
Indiana 5-12
Philadelphia 13-5
Sacramento 5-10
Basically, these trends can't continue to keep getting even more lopsided than they already are. I think you'll start to see Philly totals go up by 2 or 3 points in their next few. Philly games average 213 points yet the total lines pre-tip for their games are averaging just 204. The totals for those other teams should soften to stop the unders trend continuing.
You're spot on about the points being vastly higher but we've already seen that books have allowed for this by setting totals higher than you'd expect to keep the over/under ledger even.
Overs have gone 13-2 through the last 2 days which is astonishing. I still think the Indi game goes over but I'd be very surprised to see overs outweigh the unders on tonight's card.