1. 11-30-13 01:58 AM #36
    JAnthony
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    Quote Originally Posted by aznbluff View Post
    Just looking at numbers, he obviously contributes negatively towards winning this season but my model has consistently been off on Chicago games this year, so it made me re-consider. I didnt even know about this other dude who has these great underlying numbers until today and wasn't aware the Bulls were missing a key player.

    Shows how clueless I am about NBA. I feel like this was a productive little chat for me though.
    Nice to be of some help.
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  2. 11-30-13 04:32 AM #37
    EasyPicks
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    Quote Originally Posted by JAnthony View Post
    Yes, that's the case.

    I wouldn't call those "points", but "overall contribution", meaning, that Rose's absence doesn't affect Bulls overall performance and ability to win matches that much, if at all, this season.

    not even team chemistry? or team "winner mentality"?...after all the guy was a MVP 2 years ago.
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  3. 11-30-13 04:38 AM #38
    JAnthony
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    Quote Originally Posted by EasyPicks View Post
    not even team chemistry? or team "winner mentality"?...after all the guy was a MVP 2 years ago.
    Unfortunately, I can't assign any decent values to psychological aspects. I base my argument only on hard data of the actual performance this season.
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  4. 11-30-13 06:02 PM #39
    aznbluff
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    Quote Originally Posted by aznbluff View Post
    4-2 for +0.183
    Total 28-18 for +0.923

    Generated Offered Generated Total Offered
    Atlanta
    Washington -1.61 0.00 195.92 0.00
    Difference -1.61 195.92
    Chicago
    Cleveland 8.24 4.00 186.22 180.50
    Difference 4.24 5.72
    Brooklyn
    Memphis -9.46 0.00 191.79 0.00
    Difference -9.46 191.79
    Minnesota
    Dallas -1.50 -1.00 206.81 208.00
    Difference -0.50 -1.19
    Houston
    San Antonio -6.97 0.00 200.01 0.00
    Difference -6.97 200.01
    Utah
    Phoenix -18.83 0.00 193.59 0.00
    Difference -18.83 193.59
    Boston
    Milwaukee 4.75 1.50 188.24 187.50
    Difference 3.25 0.74


    Tomorrow's card

    Boston -1.5 -105 0.105 to win 0.1
    Chicago -4 -110 0.11 to win 0.1

    Chicago/Cleveland Over 180.5 -105 0.105 to win 0.1

    Waiting on some lines still. Another side and total in a Chicago game. Obviously Rose's injury is crushing my model, not hitting well at all in Chicago games, but my model always spits them out. I have learned that Rose is a fairly important player.
    Looks like I'm adding

    Phoenix -8.5     -113 0.113 to win 0.1

    San Antonio/Houston Under 205.5     -103 0.103 to win 0.1
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  5. 12-01-13 12:36 AM #40
    aznbluff
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    1-4 for -0.331
    Total 29-22 for +0.592

    Generated Offered Generated Total Offered
    Denver
    Toronto -2.96 0.00 198.27 0.00
    Difference -2.96 198.27
    Indiana
    LA Clip 3.73 0.00 194.24 0.00
    Difference 3.73 194.24
    Philadelphia
    Detroit -7.29 -8.50 202.64 208.00
    Difference 1.21 -5.36
    Golden State
    Sacramento 5.55 4.00 197.08 198.50
    Difference 1.55 -1.42
    Charlotte
    Miami -16.37 0.00 190.02 0.00
    Difference -16.37 190.02
    Minnesota
    OKC -7.71 -9.00 202.74 209.50
    Difference 1.29 -6.76
    New Orleans
    NY Knicks 4.66 1.00 196.16 197.50
    Difference 3.66 -1.34
    Portland
    LA Lakers 2.23 3.50 202.37 207.00
    Difference -1.27 -4.63

    Tomorrow's card

    New Orleans -1 +100 0.1 to win 0.1

    Detroit/Philadelphia Under 208 -110 0.11 to win 0.1
    Minnesota/OKC Under 209.5 -105 0.105 to win 0.1
    Portland/LAL Under 207 -110 0.11 to win 0.1

    Got beat pretty bad tonight. My personal NHL went bad too so it was a rough night overall, my worst of the month by quite a bit. As predicted, got beat again on Bulls side. Obviously need to pass on these games til health stabilizes things. More high total unders tomorrow. Model isn't hitting well on these situations either. Can't tell if that's just variance though since they occur under so many different scenarios.
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  6. 12-02-13 12:19 PM #41
    aznbluff
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    1-3 for -0.225
    Total 30-25 for +0.367

    Generated Offered Generated Total Offered
    Orlando
    Washington -2.86 -7.00 197.21 195.00
    Difference 4.14 2.21
    New Orleans
    Chicago -3.07 -7.00 192.70 192.00
    Difference 3.93 0.70
    Atlanta
    San Antonio -15.54 -12.00 195.89 198.00
    Difference -3.54 -2.11
    Houston
    Utah 16.67 7.50 199.61 202.50
    Difference 9.17 -2.89
    Indiana
    Portland 3.93 2.00 192.89 192.50
    Difference 1.93 0.39

    Orlando +7 -110 0.11 to win 0.1
    New Orleans +7 +101 0.1 to win 0.101
    San Antonio -12 -106 0.106 to win 0.1
    Houston -7.5 -109 0.109 to win 0.1

    Got another Chicago game in there but this time taking other side. I guess Anthony Davis injury overrides Chicago's injuries
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  7. 12-02-13 06:16 PM #42
    Dopey
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    Quote Originally Posted by aznbluff View Post
    1-3 for -0.225
    New Orleans +7 +101 0.1 to win 0.101

    Got another Chicago game in there but this time taking other side. I guess Anthony Davis injury overrides Chicago's injuries
    Anthony Davis is New Orleans' best player. I'd be surprised to see them any better than last in the league in defense without him. I'd be hesitant to bet on NO at all until we see what they can do without him.
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  8. 12-02-13 06:41 PM #43
    aznbluff
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dopey View Post
    Anthony Davis is New Orleans' best player. I'd be surprised to see them any better than last in the league in defense without him. I'd be hesitant to bet on NO at all until we see what they can do without him.
    Likely a good strategy but I'm just running this as a trial year for my model. I'll re-asses at the end of the year for what I need to filter out manually and how to adjust before I begin getting into the NBA market for real.
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  9. 12-03-13 02:10 PM #44
    aznbluff
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    1-3 for -0.224
    Total 31-28 for +0.143

    Generated Offered Generated Total Offered
    Orlando
    Philadelphia -0.09 -3.50 203.09 207.50
    Difference 3.41 -4.41
    Milwaukee
    Boston -9.80 -7.50 187.57 185.50
    Difference -2.30 2.07
    Denver
    Brooklyn 6.01 4.00 201.66 203.50
    Difference 2.01 -1.84
    Detroit
    Miami -14.59 -10.00 199.76 201.50
    Difference -4.59 -1.74
    Phoenix
    Memphis 2.03 -3.00 193.56 191.50
    Difference 5.03 2.06
    Charlotte
    Dallas -8.16 -8.00 194.05 194.50
    Difference -0.16 -0.45
    OKC
    Sacramento 7.45 6.50 198.67 203.00
    Difference 0.95 -4.33
    Toronto
    Golden State -7.02 -7.50 195.34 200.50
    Difference 0.48 -5.16


    Orlando +3.5 -103 0.103 to win 0.1
    Miami -10 -105 0.105 to win 0.1
    Phoenix +3 -105 0.105 to win 0.1

    Orlando/Phoenix Under 207.5 -113 0.113 to win 0.1
    OKC/Sacramento Under 203 -108 0.108 to win 0.1
    Toronto/Golden State Under 200.5 -106 0.106 to win 0.1
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  10. 12-04-13 01:29 PM #45
    aznbluff
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    2-4 for -0.229
    Total 33-32 for -0.086

    Generated Offered Generated Total Offered
    Denver
    Cleveland 7.92 4.00 198.34 202.00
    Difference 3.92 -3.66
    LA Clip
    Atlanta 2.92 3.00 202.76 202.00
    Difference -0.08 0.76
    Indiana
    Utah 17.53 8.00 187.60 186.50
    Difference 9.53 1.10
    San Antonio
    Minnesota 5.68 4.50 200.92 205.50
    Difference 1.18 -4.58
    OKC
    Portland -3.43 -2.50 201.65 204.50
    Difference -0.93 -2.85
    Dallas
    New Orleans -4.89 -2.00 203.75 207.50
    Difference -2.89 -3.75
    Phoenix
    Houston -10.94 -10.50 204.44 212.50
    Difference -0.44 -8.06
    Detroit
    Milwaukee 6.37 4.50 192.74 191.50
    Difference 1.87 1.24

    Denver -4 -103 0.103 to win 0.103
    Indiana -8 -108 0.108 to win 0.108

    San Antonio/Minnesota Under 205.5 -101 0.101 to win 0.1
    Phoenix/Houston Under 212.5 +101 0.1 to win 0.101
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  11. 12-04-13 04:27 PM #46
    EasyPicks
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    ur model keeps giving UNDERS.....
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  12. 12-04-13 06:18 PM #47
    aznbluff
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    Ya and they are not hitting well. Don't know what to make of it
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  13. 12-05-13 12:23 PM #48
    aznbluff
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    2-1 for +0.098
    Total 35-33 for +0.012

    Generated Offered Generated Total Offered
    NY Knicks
    Brooklyn -1.77 1.00 193.25 189.00
    Difference -2.77 4.25
    LA Clip
    Memphis 1.08 -1.00 196.70 195.00
    Difference 2.08 1.70
    Miami
    Chicago 5.98 4.50 191.79 188.00
    Difference 1.48 3.79


    New York/Brooklyn Over 189 -113 0.113 to win 0.1
    Miami/Chicago Over 188 -108 0.108 to win 0.1
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  14. 12-06-13 08:50 AM #49
    EasyPicks
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    you change to Overs = $$$in the bank

    nice
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  15. 12-06-13 12:04 PM #50
    aznbluff
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    2-0 for +0.2
    Total 37-33 for +0.212

    Generated Offered Generated Total Offered
    Philadelphia
    Charlotte -5.38 -6.50 194.11 197.50
    Difference 1.12 -3.39
    Milwaukee
    Washington -12.88 -9.50 190.72 191.50
    Difference -3.38 -0.78
    Cleveland
    Atlanta -10.23 -6.00 194.25 196.50
    Difference -4.23 -2.25
    Denver
    Boston 2.84 4.00 198.57 200.50
    Difference -1.16 -1.93
    Orlando
    New York -1.20 -5.00 194.81 194.50
    Difference 3.80 0.31
    Golden State
    Houston -6.27 -5.00 204.54 212
    Difference -1.27 -7.46
    OKC
    New Orleans -0.70 5.50 201.60 205.00
    Difference -6.20 -3.40
    Toronto
    Phoenix -5.64 -4.00 196.37 200.00
    Difference -1.64 -3.63
    Utah
    Portland -16.89 -11.50 197.68 201.00
    Difference -5.39 -3.32
    LA Lakers
    Sacramento 0.11 -3.50 200.39 203.00
    Difference 3.61 -2.61


    New Orleans +5.5 -105 0.105 to win 0.1
    Portland -11.5     -105 to win 0.1
    LA Lakers +3.5     -105 to win 0.1
    Atlanta -6     -107 to win 0.1
    Washington -9.5     -107 to win 0.1
    Orlando +5     -105 to win 0.1

    Toronto/Phoenix Under 200     -108 0.108 to win 0.1

    Lot of plays that just barely qualify today or just miss the cut.

    Edit add

    Golden State/Houston Under 212 -105 0.105 to win 0.1

    Another one of those Houston unders that never seem to hit
    Last edited by aznbluff; 12-06-13 at 12:10 PM.
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  16. 12-07-13 11:55 AM #51
    aznbluff
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    4-4 for -0.025
    Total 41-37 for +0.187

    Generated Offered Generated Total Offered
    Denver
    Philadelphia 6.56 7.00 206.32 213.00
    Difference -0.44 -6.68
    LA Clip
    Cleveland 11.07 6.00 196.90 197.50
    Difference 5.07 -0.60
    Golden State
    Memphis 0.41 -1.00 194.26 192.50
    Difference 1.41 1.76
    Miami
    Minnesota 2.61 6.50 203.63 202.50
    Difference -3.89 1.13
    Detroit
    Chicago -4.81 -3.50 191.89 189.50
    Difference -1.31 2.39
    Indiana
    San Antonio -3.26 -3.50 189.53 189.50
    Difference 0.24 0.03
    Brooklyn
    Milwaukee -1.92 2.50 192.14 189.50
    Difference -4.42 2.64
    Sacramento
    Utah 3.92 -2.50 195.49 193.50
    Difference 6.42 1.99
    Dallas
    Portland -6.33 -5.50 205.18 208.00
    Difference -0.83 -2.82

    LA Clippers -6 -106 0.106 to win 0.1
    Minnesota +6.5 -105 0.105 to win 0.1
    Milwaukee +2.5 -107 0.107 to win 0.1
    Sacramento +2.5 -103 0.103 to win 0.1

    Denver/Philadelphia Under 213 -107 0.107 to win 0.1
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  17. 12-08-13 02:13 PM #52
    aznbluff
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    2-3 for -0.118
    Total 43-40 for +0.069

    Taking the week off for exams
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  18. 12-11-13 12:44 PM #53
    aznbluff
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    Generated Offered Generated Total Offered
    Orlando
    Charlotte -6.87 -5.00 190.34 191.50
    Difference -1.87 -1.16
    LA Clip
    Boston 2.67 5.00 196.49 197.00
    Difference -2.33 -0.51
    San Antonio
    Milwaukee 14.62 11.00 191.61 191.00
    Difference 3.62 0.61
    Detroit
    New Orleans -5.09 -2.50 200.92 202.50
    Difference -2.59 -1.58
    Philadelphia
    Minnesota -11.65 -13.00 205.70 209.50
    Difference 1.35 -3.80
    Chicago
    New York -0.54 -3.00 187.45 183.00
    Difference 2.46 4.45
    OKC
    Memphis 5.76 6.00 194.33 190.50
    Difference -0.24 3.83
    Utah
    Sacramento -13.14 -7.00 195.80 201.50
    Difference -6.14 -5.70
    Dallas
    Golden State -6.49 -5.50 203.55 208.50
    Difference -0.99 -4.95


    San Antonio -11 -105 0.105 to win 0.1
    Sacramento -7 -109 0.109 to win 0.1

    Philadelphia/Minnesota Under 209.5 -110 0.11 to win 0.1
    Chicago/New York Over 183 -101 0.101 to win 0.1
    OKC/Memphis Over 190.5 -106 0.106 to win 0.1
    Utah/Sacramento Under 201.5 -105 0.105 to win 0.1
    Dallas/Golden State Under 208.5 -108 0.108 to win 0.1

    Day off, lots of totals tonight
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  19. 12-12-13 12:09 AM #54
    aznbluff
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    4-3 for +0.085
    Total 47-43 for +0.154

    This Trey Burke for Utah is causing problems for my model I've noticed. He seems to influence both the spread and total but maybe it's just variance, though I doubt it. He is a legit impact player

    Busy tomorrow so taking the day off again
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  20. 12-13-13 03:36 PM #55
    aznbluff
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    Generated Offered Generated Total Offered
    Cleveland
    Orlando -4.09 -2.00 192.69 194.00
    Difference -2.09 -1.31
    Philadelphia
    Toronto -8.42 -7.50 200.22 203.50
    Difference -0.92 -3.28
    Charlotte
    Indiana -13.07 -12.00 185.56 183.50
    Difference -1.07 2.06
    New York
    Boston -5.86 -3.50 191.72 189.50
    Difference -2.36 2.22
    Brooklyn
    Detroit -8.41 -6.50 196.49 196.50
    Difference -1.91 -0.01
    Washington
    Atlanta -4.95 -5.50 194.68 193.00
    Difference 0.55 1.68
    LA Lakers
    OKC -12.72 -12.00 204.03 210.00
    Difference -0.72 -5.97
    Memphis
    New Orleans -8.83 -2.50 195.16 192.00
    Difference -6.33 3.16
    Minnesota
    San Antonio -11.82 -8.50 201.41 208.00
    Difference -3.32 -6.59
    Chicago
    Milwaukee 5.20 3.50 182.98 177.00
    Difference 1.70 5.98
    Utah
    Denver -16.74 -10.50 197.85 200.50
    Difference -6.24 -2.65
    Sacramento
    Phoenix -7.90 -6.50 200.19 209.00
    Difference -1.40 -8.81
    Houston
    Golden State -1.53 -3.50 202.89 212.00
    Difference 1.97 -9.11

    New Orleans -2.5 -109 0.109 to win 0.1
    San Antonio -8.5 +100 0.1 to win 0.1
    Denver -10.5 -103 0.103 to win 0.1

    LA Lakers/OKC Under 210 -103 0.103 to win 0.1
    Minnesota/San Antonio Under 208 -108 0.108 to win 0.1
    Chicago/Milwaukee Over 177 -108 0.108 to win 0.1
    Sacramento/Phoenix Under 209 -107 0.107 to win 0.1
    Houston/Golden State Under 212 -103 0.103 to win 0.1
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  21. 12-14-13 12:27 PM #56
    aznbluff
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    2-6 for -0.424
    Total 49-49 for -0.27

    Generated Offered Generated Total Offered
    LA Lakers
    Charlotte -4.36 -2.50 194.97 199.50
    Difference -1.86 -4.53
    LA Clip
    Washington 1.99 4.00 195.04 192.50
    Difference -2.01 2.54
    Cleveland
    Miami -16.33 -13.00 194.26 199.50
    Difference -3.33 -5.24
    Atlanta
    New York 1.66 1.00 194.06 191.50
    Difference 0.66 2.56
    Portland
    Philadelphia 12.04 10.50 205.66 210.50
    Difference 1.54 -4.84
    Toronto
    Chicago -3.03 -2.50 188.15 186.50
    Difference -0.53 1.65
    Milwaukee
    Dallas -14.29 -11.50 194.24 195.50
    Difference -2.79 -1.26
    San Antonio
    Utah 15.88 6.50 196.80 195.50
    Difference 9.38 1.30


    Miami -13 -105 0.105 to win 0.1
    San Antonio -6.5 -105 0.105 to win 0.1

    LA Lakers/Charlotte Under 199.5 -113 0.113 to win 0.1
    Cleveland/Miami Under 199.5 -109 0.109 to win 0.1
    Portland/Philadelphia Under 210.5 -104 0.104 to win 0.1

    High totals killing me, don't know if running bad or playing bad
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  22. 12-18-13 01:27 PM #57
    aznbluff
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    2-3 for -0.118
    Total 51-52 for -0.388

    Generated Offered Generated Total Offered
    Indiana
    Miami -6.02 -3.00 193.82 189.00
    Difference -3.02 4.82
    Utah
    Orlando -9.57 -4.50 195.00 196.00
    Difference -5.07 -1.00
    Charlotte
    Toronto -7.56 -6.50 188.64 190.50
    Difference -1.06 -1.86
    Sacramento
    Atlanta -8.99 -6.50 199.99 204.50
    Difference -2.49 -4.51
    Detroit
    Boston -3.17 -1.00 194.56 195.00
    Difference -2.17 -0.44
    Washington
    Brooklyn -4.21 -4.50 194.66 196.00
    Difference 0.29 -1.34
    New York
    Milwaukee 3.38 3.00 188.44 186.50
    Difference 0.38 1.94
    Portland
    Minnesota 1.41 -2.00 207.75 213.00
    Difference 3.41 -5.25
    Memphis
    Dallas -10.39 -9.50 197.43 192.00
    Difference -0.89 5.43
    San Antonio
    Phoenix 3.02 3.00 200.30 202.00
    Difference 0.02 -1.70
    Chicago
    Houston -11.17 -7.50 192.73 191.00
    Difference -3.67 1.73
    New Orleans
    LA Clip -9.58 -10.50 201.39 205.00
    Difference 0.92 -3.61

    Done exams so I have some free time now to calculate Kelly bet sizing and watch games to adjust

    Orlando -4.5 -102 0.172 to win 0.169
    Portland +2 -101 0.115 to win 0.114
    Houston -7.5 -109 0.133 to win 0.122

    Indiana/Miami Over 189 -103 0.142 to win 0.138
    Sacramento/Atlanta Under 204.5 -105 0.135 to win 0.129
    Portland/Minnesota Under 213 -101 0.152 to win 0.15
    Memphis/Dallas Over 192 -105 0.163 to win 0.155
    New Orleans/LA Clip Under 205 +100 0.103 to win 0.103

    Still getting killed on high totals
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  23. 12-18-13 01:39 PM #58
    labones00
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    Quote Originally Posted by EasyPicks View Post
    ur model keeps giving UNDERS.....
    In your model are you using totals from last season at all? That could explain it predicting all these unders...
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  24. 07-09-21 06:31 PM #59
    RudyRuetigger
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    lets hope azn is better than this model
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