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11-22-13 12:16 AM #36
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11-22-13 12:27 AM #37
Originally Posted by WalkingLuckCharm
I assign a number to players every season and adjust it using play by play. I don't get wrapped up in trends or current form which is probably a major flaw in my methods. I obviously am human and hold a job so I cannot watch film on every game or else I would. Using my proprietary formula (kidding) I able to react to injuries without emotion kinda like assigning a war to everyone. Anyway then I have my numbers and I look at my odds screen as much as humanly possible throughout the day.
To sum all that up....its a complex method of dart chucks and line watching. Cleveland is a 5 point dog here according to me, 6.5 is tasty but I'll probably wait to see if I can get 7 or better.
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11-22-13 12:29 AM #38
Also I am aware that Vegas isn't in the habit of giving value to dart chuckers very often so my primitive methods are I'm sure are already factored in to anything I could imagine. It just makes the season fun and I feel like Im putting my work in. I love NCAABB but it takes me a long time to get my numbers to comfort zone. Should have MORE college plays around xmas.
Points Awarded:
WalkingLuckCharm gave Ra77er 1 Betpoint(s) for this post.
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11-22-13 01:56 AM #39
fair enough. thanks for sharing man. will be with you on grizzlies tomorrow
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11-22-13 02:08 AM #40
just wondering why the grilzzlies?
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11-22-13 02:21 AM #41
okc / grizzlies / spurs imo are the only teams that can make it out in the west. they real legit. gsw maybe
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11-22-13 02:32 AM #42
yea tomorrow its spurs vs memphis with spurs only getting -1. Feels like a gift but then gifts are traps in this world...
what a oxymoron.
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11-22-13 02:36 AM #43
don't know why you think it's a gift. I guess because of their slow start they might be currently underrated. for example against GSW I really did not see how they were not favourites to win it. I think with mike miller they real good. Think they failed last playoffs due to lack of 3 pt shooting. though they got swept last season by the spurs, grizzlies have beaten both OKC and spurs in playoffs before. conley has really developed into being clutch and a great PG, and z-bo and gasol... well you know how it is
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11-22-13 02:40 AM #44
Bulls looked like a trap as well Kevin but I still made a play on them because I felt I had a few points on value. The whole trap thing is just some shit the degen community came up with to explain being on the wrong side. If you think Spurs roll and 1 looks good then I say go after it. Personally I have the Grizzles rated a bit higher than their record would indicate. I haven't locked in Memphis yet because I like to see if I can get a better number throughout the day and sometimes if I see steam/rlm etc on the other side it makes me rethink my position. Just a thought but if I liked the Spurs I would probably buy a ticket on them now as opposed to 30 minutes before tip. Good luck on whatever way you roll Kev. Sorry about Nugglet heartbreaker
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11-22-13 02:42 AM #45
hmm what about gsw? curry back tomorrow?
minny? nets are just brutal and min only getting 2 points
pacers? blowing 1 unit tomorrow on 1 nba game see how she goes.
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11-22-13 02:44 AM #46
I've got Curry as questionable tomorrow and Kaman for LA questionable as well. More than likely we will see both in the game but I'll be keeping an eye on those injuries in case we see a downgrade.
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11-22-13 02:45 AM #47
I really do feel the Spurs have a great shot. Originally Posted by Ra77er
I was on Chicago and felt they have a good shot winning too. I just took a shot on a live bet just on how awful Chicago was playing. Of course when i took the bet Chicago took down 3s and then Denver just didin't even care? since they already have it locked up.
It was a tough loss but what can you do. Just looking around for some more info before i pull the trigger.
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11-22-13 02:45 AM #48
I hope not, I wanna bet on GSW without curry vs LA. where did u find that minny line? Originally Posted by kevin101
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11-22-13 02:45 AM #49
No Steve Nash for the lakers tomorrow.... Originally Posted by Ra77er
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11-22-13 02:48 AM #50
oh i was just reading info at picksandparlays.net and they had Minnesota-2 so thought that was the line. Originally Posted by WalkingLuckCharm
Why do you wanna bet GSW without Curry?
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11-22-13 02:55 AM #51
Injuries are a good way to find some strange numbers. Jefferson comes to mind with the Bobcats, he's been actually undervalued thus far when out and then the opposite side would be Kobe out to start the year for Lakeshow. Average joes have a difficult time adjusting to this info in my opinion.
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11-22-13 03:00 AM #52
Might just hop on the over 1q for brooklyn game. But if the spread is actually 2, might be hard to pass up. Originally Posted by kevin101
It is probably more like 7
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11-22-13 03:01 AM #53
If the GSW are -5 @ LA and 6 hours prior to tip Curry is listed as out then what do you make the number?
If you can figure out what each player is worth on the point spread fairly accurately then you just might have something. Quite difficult to do but it's fun to try.
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11-22-13 03:06 AM #54
I've got an app on my ipod called sportsinsights and 95% are on spurs -1 lol.
This is not a great match-up for Grizzlies, the Spurs are a more athletic version of Memphis. Even better San Antonio has the leadership of the big three (Duncan, Ginobli, & Parker), the hall of famers don't look to be slowing down. Until Spurs show us otherwise we are riding the hot San Antion start. Final Score Prediction, San Antonio Spurs win 103-93.
from picksnparlays
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11-22-13 08:33 AM #55
Just an fyi... Originally Posted by vasilli07
The Bulls completely sucked in a win the game prior with Charlotte. Tibbs was prolly already on their ass after that one.
I'll say it again....NO inside scoring, NO dependable scoring outside of Rose, NO bench. At one point in the third, Denvers bench (I know they get more minutes than the Bulls shit crew in any game) was outscoring the Bulls Over 3-1.
I had two in game live bets from the first half that were dead. Threw a third in late and that underachieving check thief Taj Pussy Gibson decides, after another shit performance, to chirp to the ref and get t'd up for the second time, blowing my third bet. Caught my third bet (+11.5) cuz Denver let some Bulls scrub score his first NBA basket in the last minute.
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11-22-13 09:00 AM #56Derek Jeter, the best shortstop ever.
Become A Pro!
Join Date: 11-13-12Posts: 5,179Betpoints: 1897
Ra77er, the modern day NBA is a complete coin-flip.
NBA players (aside from Kobe) just don't give a shit anymore.
While a Michael Jordan led Bulls team would have spanked the 76ers, the Heat (who should never lose a game if they cared to give effort every night) lost to them.
THE NBA IS ALL A COIN FLIP AND WHOEVER MAKES MONEY FROM IT CONSISTENTLY YEAR-TO-YEAR IS LYING.
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11-22-13 09:15 AM #57
Rose is an average player now
League caught up to him
Bulls not a great team especially on the road
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11-22-13 09:30 AM #58
I will think of Bulls as a team who will surprise when everyone writes them off. Remember that Pacers game? I was on Nuggets ML today as I already marked Bulls as the team who will end Blazers winning streak. Originally Posted by I/O
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11-22-13 11:29 PM #59
Rose hurt AGAIN. Bulls lose AGAIN. After having 21 pt lead.
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11-22-13 11:41 PM #60
just because you cant do it doesnt mean no one else can. Originally Posted by bubblebuttluv
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11-23-13 05:25 AM #61
Rose is a fragile player
Bulls are pretty good although offense kills them
They don't have a real dominant scorer
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