[JM92]

I think the title is pretty self explanatory. I will be posting my player props around here this season. I did pretty well on them (about 7 or 8 units of profit) for about two months during the lockout season but then I stopped because of the 'effin prices on those. Now I've managed to find some books, namely marathonbet (who only has points though, for now I think) and I will get back to them. Don't really recommend tailing right away, but I should make a profit on these. Will give write-ups when I can.

And I use flat betting (1 unit per bet always).

[JM92]

Starting off tonite:

David Lee over 18 points @ 1.92 (-108) on Marathonbet

Bet365 has an over 16.5 but it's way downpriced already, I was asleep (literally lol) and missed it. Lee should own the Sixers on the inside and the game should have an high pace. Only concern is that the Warriors dominate so much Lee doesn't play enough time. But its still lots of value. I mean the guy should average at least 18 through the season so against the Sixers who will probably finish as one of the worst inside defenses in the league, this has to be played.

[JM92]

Other leans I had today so far was Parsons over 14.5 but way downpriced now at - 125, Mike Conley under 17 but once again to downpriced for me at - 120 and Tristan Thompson at over 13.5 which I think I might still play.

[JM92]

Starting off tonite:

David Lee over 18 points @ 1.92 (-108) on Marathonbet -> PUSH

Bet365 has an over 16.5 but it's way downpriced already, I was asleep (literally lol) and missed it. Lee should own the Sixers on the inside and the game should have an high pace. Only concern is that the Warriors dominate so much Lee doesn't play enough time. But its still lots of value. I mean the guy should average at least 18 through the season so against the Sixers who will probably finish as one of the worst inside defenses in the league, this has to be played.

Talk about a terrible start. I know its just a push but damnit, Warriors even shittin harder than I thought on the Sixers especially with Iggy having a ridiculous homecoming (ps: its really bad for the warriors that iggy hit all these 3s, now is going to think he's good at it again) and Lee, apart from Bogut obviously, being the starter playing the less amount of time with 26 minutes and missing some really easy shots

[JM92]

Channing Frye over 10 points @ -112 (1.88) marathonbet

I feel really pissed rigt now. This started at 9 points and - 110. Needless to say I regret that big time. Frye had a good game last time around and will get better as season progresses. Tonight if either Smith or Davis guard him, I think he'll always have some good chances at scoring. Plus, without Dragic now, the Suns do need him to score. Also keep in mind Bledsoe is going up against the better defensive point guard in the league in my opinion (actually I think Bledsoe and Holiday are both top 3 with chris paul as well) so he might struggle to get it going to. Frye should get at least 10 shots up and I will be surprised to not see him get at least 10 tonight.

[JM92]

Channing Frye over 10 points @ -112 (1.88) marathonbet -> LOSS

YTD: 0-1-1 - 1.00 U

Bad play last night not because I lost but because I realise now that I bet on a guy from a team that doesn't have is rotations really set out yet and that's not a good idea.

[JM92]

Kyrie Irving over 18.5 points @ - 115 (1.85) Unibet

Irving has been in a rough funk to start the season but I think he breaks out of it tonight. Like I said in another topic it doesn't get much better than the current Bucks backcourt to do so. I think Kyrie will have a really big game tonight.

[JM92]

Kyrie Irving over 18.5 points @ - 115 (1.85) Unibet -> WIN

Irving has been in a rough funk to start the season but I think he breaks out of it tonight. Like I said in another topic it doesn't get much better than the current Bucks backcourt to do so. I think Kyrie will have a really big game tonight.

YTD: 1-1-1 - 0.15

This one went just as predicted as Kyrie dropped almost 30 on the Bucks.

[JM92]

Chris Paul over 20.5 points @ 1.85 unibet
James Harden over 24.5 points @ 1.85 unibet

Clippers will need Paul to score tonight. Specially 'cause Griffin and Jordan played a lot last night and might get gassed throughout the game. I think Cole and Chalmers are actually good defenders but cmon, Paul can shit on 'em if he wants, hell he can do it to everyone. If the heat swarm him like they did against Rose... Paul can handle it.

Harden is an easier one. No one can guard him. Fast pace and lots of possessions. Harden hates the Lakers.

[JM92]

Adding Parsons to the mix.

Chandler Parsons over 14.5 points @ 1.90 marathonbet

[JM92]

chris paul over 20.5 points @ 1.85 unibet - > loss
james harden over 24.5 points @ 1.85 unibet - > win
chandler parsons over 14.5 points @ 1.90 marathonbet - > win

ytd: 3-2-1 + 0.60

[JM92]

I made a stop after NCAA started but I'll be back at this tonight.

Russell Westbrook over 22.5 points @ 1.86 (-115) marathonbet

Since coming back, Westbrook has averaged 21.7 while shooting the lowest percentage since his sophomore season, 41.3%. Westbrook has never been the best finisher in the world but he has had particular trouble recently, shooting only 40% at the rim, down from 61% last year. He has improved his jumper once again though, shooting 55% from mid range so far. I think tonight Westy is going to beast and feast on the Nuggets. Without Mcgee and Koufos and Mozgov playing behind Hickson, there's no inside presence for them. Faried tries, but he will be away from the rim a lot also, because Ibaka is a respected mid-range shooter right now. Plus, 1 on 1, Westy is much bigger than Lawson and much faster than whoever else the put, namely Miller. Westbrook is one of my favourite players so sometimes I might get biased towards his play. But I have no doubt he will be able to get to the rim tonight and against this Denver D, boy he should get his fair chance of easy ones. Look for Westy to explode!

[JM92]

Dirk Nowitzki over 19 @ 1.86 (-115) marathonbet (or over 19.5 at unibet - 110)

Can you spell money in german Thadeus Young? 'Cause the diggler is gonna make it rain tonight! Reggie Miller here he comes baby! Yeaaaah!

[JM92]

Wow, Westy already got robbed of one call, then got a tech and got robbed of another. Also missed a really easy one. Still, he already has 6 points! So he's really attacking.

[JM92]

JJ Reddick over 16.5 @ 2.00 (+100) bet365

This is a revenge game for the Clippers. As a new guy, Im pretty sure Reddick will be willing to show to his teammates that he's embracing his new team and want to put on a good show tonight. Plus, the grizzlies will likely load up on Paul and BG and there should be some open shots for Reddick tonight. I feel like he really could knock down 3 or 4 three tonight.

[JM92]

Russell Westbrook over 22.5 points @ 1.86 (-115) marathonbet -> WIN
Dirk Nowitzki over 19 @ 1.86 (-115) marathonbet -> Win
JJ Reddick over 16.5 @ 2.00 (+100) Bet365 -> Loss

2-1 night of + 0.72U but it could've easily been a sweep. Reddick shot 3-13, 1-7 from three and still got 12 points. Missed lots of easy ones. When you bet this overs on shooter assuming they'll get lots of easy shots, you gotta know that its never that easy to shoot from 20ft+ from the basket so I'm happy to know I still made a good play even though I lost, Reddick exactly the type of game I expected, except for those percentages you can't control.

YTD: 5-3-1 + 1.32

[JM92]

Want to bet Parsons over, but after getting some 14 and 14.5s before now he seems to be at 18 everywhere. Damn. Not liking anything else today so far. Maybe with some odds changing I'll get on one of the late games.

[JM92]

No time for write-ups right now but I will have at least 3 props for tonight almost for sure. first one:

Derrick Rose over 18 points @ 1.84 marathonbet (-119)

This should be a good one for Rose to explode as a one man fast-break.

[JM92]

Well one of the other props I was was Reddick again but I arrived home far too late I'm afraid. Still have a third one in mind. If anyone finds good odds on Wilson Chandler over please tell me.

[Cornelius]

There's 13.5 for chandler on bet365 if you like it.

[JM92]

Will try to get 13 otherwise will bet that one. thanks!

[JM92]

Wilson Chandler over 13.5 points @ 1.86 (-114) bet365

Deng will need to do a lot of helping in this one I believe, plus I think the Nuggets will try to run the Bulls out of the gym. Looking for Chandler to take advantage of some nice 3pt looks and the rest should come naturally.

[Cornelius]

I like the chandler play. Questioning the rose play but I'm on both so let's win

[Cornelius]

Chandler hasn't even taken a shot yet lol

[Cornelius]

wrong thread

[JM92]

Wilson Chandler over 13.5 points @ 1.86 (-114) bet365 -> Loss
Derrick Rose over 18 points @ 1.84 marathonbet (-119) -> Win

Wow. Chandler with 0 points. Well, my whole last night was unreal, 1-5 in all the plays I made.

YTD: 6-4-1 + 1.16

[JM92]

Gordan Hayward over 15.5 @ 1.83 (-120) bet365 - 2UNITS

What the hell. Hayward has some bad games (last 2 really bad ones including 1-17) and they put out a 15.5 line?! Hayward should end the season around 18 ppg in my opinion and he has never put up less than 12 shots this year with this season low coming after the 1-17 game. The other time he took 12 shots, he scored 27 points so I'm not even counting that one. He should take at least 15 shots tonight and only playing time would be an issue but without Westbrook playing the Jazz should keep it a contest for longer I think.

[JM92]

Chandler hasn't even taken a shot yet lol

Yeah Chandler ****** us up big on that day lol. Took 2 shots what the hell.