All plays have 5.3% juice (e.g. 100 wins 95)

Cavaliers @ Bobcats +2.5
Factor: Riding the “auto-faded” team

During the past two seasons whenever the bettors see the Bobcats in the schedule, they won’t hesitate to fade them in almost every situation. Who could blame them? The Bobcats have been the worst team in the NBA, both in straight up wins and losses and ATS record (54-93 for a 36.73% cover rate the past two seasons). It’s one thing to lose a lot of games but to not even cover the spreads (often humungous) at a respectable rate really tells a lot how bad this team has been. The oddsmakers know this and often inflate the lines on games involving Charlotte but as indicated by their poor ATS record, the “correction” was not enough.

So what makes me believe that they will right the ship this year at least ATS wise? Because finally, this team was injected with some talent. The Al Jefferson acquisition might not be a blockbuster move but it gives them inside scoring they sorely lack in the past couple of seasons. Zeller is a solid pick which gives them a versatile offensive weapon. The continued emergence of Kemba Walker at the point position and Gerald Henderson should also not be ignored.

The Cavaliers should not be a road favorite to any team except MAYBE the Sixers and Magic. The only reason they’re the favorites in this game is because of the Bobcats’ reputation and their upset win against the overhyped Brooklyn Nets. This is a toss up game and with the home team getting points, it’s hard not to take the Bobcats.

Thunder @ Timberwolves -2
Factor: Too good to be true dogs

The casual bettor cannot believe it. OKC has scoring champion Durant. They are a perennial playoff team for the past four years. And now the Timberwolves are laying a bucket against the Thunder?

But look past the names and logos of these teams and you’ll see that they are heading into opposite directions. The Thunder, ever since they traded James Harden, have never been the same team that went to the Finals two years ago. Without Westbrook who’s still nursing an injury, the Thunder have no other scoring option besides Durant. We saw this team had trouble scoring in the playoffs when Westbrook went down. Westbrook has a lot of haters but that playoff collapse by the Thunder proved how valuable he is for OKC. Aside from Durant, who would score for OKC? Serge Ibaka? Nick Collison? Derek penetrating Fisher? Please. Durant scored 42 points (on 24 FTs) and they barely beat a bad Utah team.

Meanwhile, the Wolves have a lot of offensive firepower. They have the best big man duo in the league (Love and Pekovic). They have a point guard in Ricky Rubio who could deliver the right passes. The addition of Kevin Martin (who Rick Adelman knows how to use properly because of their time in Sacramento) just strengthens their offense. The Wolves were decimated by injuries last year. With everyone healthy, I expect them to start strong. They have the talent to contend for a playoff spot in the West especially with the Lakers and Nuggets expected to have down years.

The Wolves are not defensive juggernauts by any means but they’re just so much better than the Thunder offensively. In the beginning of the season, teams with better offense wins most of the games. The defensive intensity is not yet there. Players are frequently missing defensive rotations. I’ll take the team with the more potent offensive talent than a team who heavily relies on one player to carry the entire team’s offensive load.

Sixers @ Wizards -9.5
Factor: Trendy dogs

The Sixers have beaten the defending champs! MCW will be the rookie of the year! The Twitter world was abuzz two days ago when the lowly Sixers upset the Heat as 10 point home underdogs. They are projected to finish last by season’s end because talent-wise, they’re just plain bad. But in this world dominated by social media, a win like the Sixers had would quickly change people’s perception. Maybe the Sixers ain’t that bad. Classic overreaction again. From top to bottom, this team is bad. A team starting Evan Turner, Spencer Hawes, James Anderson and a rookie point guard (granted he had a sensational game) have no business staying close against good teams if they’re being taken seriously. They caught the defending champs in a bad spot because who would get up for the Sixers the next day after trouncing a conference rival in opening night? The Heat spotted them 20 points and they still almost lost the game.

This game is eerily similar to the Lakers-Warriors game two days ago. After catching lightning in the bottle during the Clippers game, the Lakers crashed down to earth against the Warriors. MCW won’t have another game like he had, at least not now. Evan Turner won’t be dunking left and right. The Wizards are thinking playoffs or bust this season. After a disappointing opening game, they will bounce back big against this lowly SIxers team. It’s hard to lay nine points with a team like Washington but the Sixers are really bad. After that Heat win, I bet they’re still flying on cloud nine. But in a season where silver linings and moral victories are the only ones they could find, who could blame them?

2.80u to win 2.66 each

YTD: -3.08 units