1. #1
    twincities77
    twincities77's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-07-09
    Posts: 716
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    NBA Bets: 11/8

    Hello again looks like I'm treading into dangerous ground with all road teams today,

    ATS

    NO +7.5 - Same as usual here, value play betting against the public Lakers. The line appears about 2.5 to 3 points too high. Also, the Lakers still have no Bynum or Gasol.

    GS -3.5 -
    Sacramento coming off a back to back (and a surprising win); they're still without their leading scorer. Golden State is better than their record indicates and coming off of an embarrassing loss to the Clippers. Like the zigzag action here.

    Pho -1.5 (I'm going to wait and fade the line movement to see if I can get a better price; disregard this, line started to move the other way, so I grabbed it at 1.5) - this is an odd game. All the numbers I use (and I mean literally all of them) have Phoenix winning this by at least 2 points, with the average being Pho -3.5 (this generallly never happens for me). Usually I would expect a Pho -5 type line to start here, then sharps pounding Was down. However, the line opened fairly sharp at Pho -2 and is now getting hit towards Washington, who's still without Arenas and now Mike Miller. Zigzag goes against Phoenix here, and they're likely the more high profile team, I just can't figure out this line. Thoughts welcome here before I lay the bet.

    Edit: Thanks for the correction Vard, I meant Jamison.

    O/U

    Pho/Was: U216
    GS/Sac: U215.5
    Last edited by twincities77; 11-08-09 at 10:15 AM.

  2. #2
    HoulihansTX
    Bowl $ea$on
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    Join Date: 02-11-09
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    Stay away from NO, they have no bench.

  3. #3
    NardVa
    NardVa's Avatar Become A Pro!
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    Quote Originally Posted by twincities77 View Post
    Hello again looks like I'm treading into dangerous ground with all road teams today,

    ATS

    NO +7.5 - Same as usual here, value play betting against the public Lakers. The line appears about 2.5 to 3 points too high. Also, the Lakers still have no Bynum or Gasol.

    GS -3.5 -
    Sacramento coming off a back to back (and a surprising win); they're still without their leading scorer. Golden State is better than their record indicates and coming off of an embarrassing loss to the Clippers. Like the zigzag action here.

    ML

    Pho (I'm going to wait and fade the line movement to see if I can get a better price) - this is an odd game. All the numbers I use (and I mean literally all of them) have Phoenix winning this by at least 2 points, with the average being Pho -3.5 (this generallly never happens for me). Usually I would expect a Pho -5 type line to start here, then sharps pounding Was down. However, the line opened fairly sharp at Pho -2 and is now getting hit towards Washington, who's still without Arenas and now Mike Miller. Zigzag goes against Phoenix here, and they're likely the more high profile team, I just can't figure out this line. Thoughts welcome here before I lay the bet.

    O/U

    Pho/Was: U216
    GS/Sac: U215.5

    Arenas has been playing all season but Miller will be out for a few weeks.

  4. #4
    whatsgood5
    Let's fuckin' do it
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    Join Date: 10-13-09
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    I'm gonna tail you on the Warriors tonight. I suck and you seem to be pretty good. Good luck today

  5. #5
    twincities77
    twincities77's Avatar Become A Pro!
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    Quote Originally Posted by whatsgood5 View Post
    I'm gonna tail you on the Warriors tonight. I suck and you seem to be pretty good. Good luck today
    I'm only hitting the "dog shit" line on ATS games so far this year, but thanks for the vote of confidence. Hopefully we cash.

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