[NBASharp]

I'm relatively new here. Followed a couple of guys but never registered, until now. I decided to post my picks here for anyone who wishes to follow. Had a couple of profitable seasons but I'm definitely not a pro. I'm just a big NBA junkie from The Netherlands with a love for sports betting who watches way too many games. I hope we can get this exciting season underway with a couple of nice wins. I bet between 1-3 units. First play for the season opener:

ORL@IND: Under 187.5 (+106) - (1x) - Pinnacle

The Pacers have had a poor run in preseason, but a lot of that has to do with mindset. The last two games, where Frank Vogel said he would approach them as regular season games, the Pacers looked like the tough team they were last year. Their advantage has always been their defense. The last two games they allowed 89 points against Atlanta and 77 points against the Mavs. While I definitely don’t base this pick on two preseason games, I believe they haven’t lost a step from last year since the team’s starting five will be the same for this game. The bench additions are not great defensively, but in Frank Vogel defensive system it is all about moving on a string and helping each other. Guys like Scola and C.J. Watson have a really high basketball IQ that can fit right in defensively. Granger will not play for this game which is only a plus in betting the under.

On the other side we have the Magic, a team that had trouble scoring last year, ranking 27^th in OEFF. Defensively they ranked 25^th, but the Pacers is really not the type of team that benefit that greatly from bad defensive. Given that the pace will likely be very slow with not a lot of fast break opportunities for both teams, a line of 187 is a couple of points too high. No Big Baby Davis, and Tobias Harris will be questionable. This group of youngsters will undoubtedly have a tough time scoring against a solid Pacers team. I could see this be a 95-85 type of game. One unit.

[NBASharp]

LAC@LAL: LAC -8.5 (-102) - (1x) - Pinnacle

Clippers last year results against the Lakers:

109-95 (W)
125-101 (W)
107-102 (W)
105-95 (W)

The Clippers only got better in the meantime while the Lakers only suffered and are probably going into a really disappointing season. Del Negro was an awful coach and is now replaced by Doc Rivers, a guy who has earned his stripes in the league with the Celtics and knows how to make his teams play defense. I think the Clippers can potentially make the Finals this season; with the many bad coaching decisions of Del Negro it was never going to happen. I think a lot of people underestimate the impact of a coach on the success of a team. I watched a lot of preseason games and you already see the defensive installments of Rivers: playing ‘ice’ on the pick-and-rolls and forcing ball handlers to the baseline. These details are truly promising because Del Negro just did not had a clue what to do defensively.

The Lakers on the other hand will be missing #24, but to be honest I don’t think this would have a huge impact on the spread and the outcome of the game. Shawne Williams might start in the season opener which says enough about the Lakers game plan: stretch the floor and shoot a ton of threes. This is probably what we will see from the Lakers all season long. Typical D’Antoni fast-pace offensive, pick-and-rolls and shooting threes. I really don’t think they got the players material to utilize this strategy to the max, and I think they can get burned in a lot of games, not only this game.

Bench-wise this is a laughable matchup. While Collison is doubtful for the Clippers, J.J. Reddick, Byron Mullens and Jared Dudley all played starting roles last year. Throw in vets like Jamal Crawford, Matt Barnes who were already on the team and Antawn Jamison, and you have one of the deepest benches in the NBA. On the other hand guys like Jordan Farmar, Xavier Henry and Wesley Johnson will get the bench minutes but are just to shaky to have an impact on both ends. Well Henry played really well in preseason, I just don’t believe he can be a valuable sixth man against the good teams. This line should be at least ten. Given that the Clippers already covered the -8.5 spread in three of the four games last season, is alone enough reason to bet this line.

[Reck]

Great first two posts...

Good luck this season.

[Manel88]

Collison is expected to play

[imarkp]

gl appreciate the info.

[sando]

I like your style. Great write up's. You'll do well...

[NBASharp]

Thanks for the kind comments guys.

Good luck on the World Cup plays Sando, I followed all your picks. Awesome job so far.

[NBASharp]

POR@PHO: POR -4.5 (-109) - (1x) - Pinnacle

Portland can look back on pretty solid preseason, losing the first two games and winning the last six games. They’ve added Robin Lopez, Mo Williams, Dorrell Wright and Thomas Robinson – a pretty good roster improvement considering the players they lost (J.J. Hickson, Eric Maynor and Jared Jeffries). I think this bench is exactly what they need to compete for a play-offs spot. Mo Williams can provide instant offensive from the bench, while Wright can add three-point spot-up shooting to the second unit; something they didn’t have last year. With Robinson backing up LaMarcus Aldridge, I don’t think Terry Stotts needs his starters to play around 40 minutes like last year. This is huge in a 82-games season.

For this first game the Trail Blazers are capable of crushing the Suns on their home floor. The Suns are in a rebuilding process, and made that very clear by trading their starting center Marcin Gortat away for Emeka Okafor. This trade had everything to do with contract purposes and showed the lack of short-term ambitions of the team. This is not necessarily a bad thing because some teams just simply have no other option than to rebuild this way, but this means that the Suns for me just went from the second-worst team in the NBA to the absolute worst team in the league. Goran Dragic and Eric Bledsoe make a pretty good guard-combo, but that’s about the only quality they have. I think Gerald Green was the top scorer in the preseason for them, which just simply says it all.

The Trail Blazers have just simply too much quality for the Suns to overcome. They made key additions to the roster but the starting five remained mostly the same. The Suns on the other have very few players that survived the rebuilding process. If they are going to win some games, it will probably be much later in the season. The spread might look a bit high for a first regular season game with a favored away team, but I think the Blazers can cover by a few points.

[NBASharp]

Adding for tomorrow:

CHAR@HOU: HOU -12.0 (-105) - (1x) - Pinnacle

DEN@SAC: SAC -2.5 (-105) - (1x) - Pinnacle


Write-ups will follow. Lines or odds might have slightly changed, I took both bets yesterday. For the future I will post here as fast as I can.

[killersweet]

Like your plays dude. Good luck

[NBASharp]

Surprising stuff from the Lakers after a nice start with the Pacers.

Record: 1-1 (+0.06)

Edit: Just watched the full game and boy the Clippers made the second unit gain confidence in the 4th. Could do anything they wanted to. Clippers definitely still have a lot to work to do defensively. Truly deserved win by the purple and gold. Jordan Hill was the man of the match for me: 6-8 shooting for 12 points, while adding 7 offensive rebounds in just 18 minutes. Guy is a beast.

[NBASharp]

Write-up for the CHAR@HOU game:

The Rockets will play their first home game. I think Dwight Howard is a perfect fit for their team; he’s one of the few bigs that can run the floor in this league. Expect to see the same fast-paced offense as last year. We will probably see plenty of these ~10ish spreads on the Rockets home floor. With a high outcome each point on the spread basically has less value than if it were a low-scoring game. I don’t expect to see the Bobcats getting involved in the high pace and with the same efficiency. I’ve seen these guys play in preseason and they just lack depth in the scoring area. If guys like MKG get the green light for shooting long mid-range jumpers, I have very little faith in the coaching staff.

I think the line should be around -15, which might look a bit high for the first game of the regular season. However the Rockets looked really comfortable in their playing style with Howard in the line-up, getting some extra power on defensive and having a dangerous distraction big that can help the shooters space the floor. Patrick Beverly will get the starting spot, meaning that Lin will come off the bench. I think this a great move to give the bench more scoring power. Along with three-point shooters like Motiejunas and Casspi the bench can now play exactly the same type of offensive as the starting unit.

It remains unclear if Al Jefferson will play, but he said he’s not 100% pain-free yet. I don’t think having him in the line-up will influence the game that much. He likes to isolate in the post and he will have to do that against Howard. Plus if he plays he will most likely get limited minutes.

[NBASharp]

​Write-up for the DEN@SAC game:

I think the Kings can be one of the positive surprises this year. They drafted a great guy in Ben McLemore, traded away Tyreke Evans and added Greivis Vasquez who had a really solid season with the Pelicans last year. If this young team learns how to play defense they can play with the best of them. DeMarcus Cousins has the potential to be the one the best big man in the league. He can shoot, rebound and post-up. I’m not sure however if benching Isaiah Thomas is the best thing to do, but we’ll see how that works out.

The Nuggets on the other hand don’t seem to have improved in the offseason. Andre Iguodala left to play for the Warriors, Corey Brewer went to the Timberwolves and Kosta Koufos is now a player for the Grizzlies. Randy Foye, Darrel Arthur, J.J. Hickson and Nate The Great joined the ball club, but on paper this not a team that is not very likely to impress. Especially on the defensive end there is no way that Brian Shaw will install the same effective defense as he did with Vogel in Indiana. Shaw will implement the triangle offense in some parts which will take a lot of time for the players to get familiar with. Due to their tremendous home court advantage the Nuggets will still win a nice amount of games, but it is inevitable they will see some struggles on the road. Besides the Nuggets are not expecting point guard Ty Lawson to play due to a groin injury, which will hurt their chances.

[Ushouldpayme]

ORL@IND: Under 187.5 (+106) - (1x) - Pinnacle

The Pacers have had a poor run in preseason, but a lot of that has to do with mindset. The last two games, where Frank Vogel said he would approach them as regular season games, the Pacers looked like the tough team they were last year. Their advantage has always been their defense. The last two games they allowed 89 points against Atlanta and 77 points against the Mavs. While I definitely don’t base this pick on two preseason games, I believe they haven’t lost a step from last year since the team’s starting five will be the same for this game. The bench additions are not great defensively, but in Frank Vogel defensive system it is all about moving on a string and helping each other. Guys like Scola and C.J. Watson have a really high basketball IQ that can fit right in defensively. Granger will not play for this game which is only a plus in betting the under.

On the other side we have the Magic, a team that had trouble scoring last year, ranking 27^th in OEFF. Defensively they ranked 25^th, but the Pacers is really not the type of team that benefit that greatly from bad defensive. Given that the pace will likely be very slow with not a lot of fast break opportunities for both teams, a line of 187 is a couple of points too high. No Big Baby Davis, and Tobias Harris will be questionable. This group of youngsters will undoubtedly have a tough time scoring against a solid Pacers team. I could see this be a 95-85 type of game. One unit.[/QUOTE]

Tailed on this. Nice hit, too. Thanks.

[NBASharp]

Record: 2-3 (-0.99)

[NBASharp]

NYK@CHI: Under 189 (-104) - (2x) - Pinnacle

Knicks come off a B2B where they had to grind out a win against the Bucks. They have to face one of the toughest defenses in the league tonight. The Knicks scored 90 points against the Bucks while shooting over 50% from the floor. Their pace is really slow; they even ranked 26th in pace last season. But the Bulls were even slower, ranking 27th with under 89 possessions per 48 minutes. Now this has under written all over it. It's early in the season so the books give a few points margin but it's still a bit to high in my opinion and should be around 185. If the Knicks score just 90 points against the Bucks on their homefloor while shooting over 50%, I expect trouble for them on the road against an energized home team that plays tough on defense while playing B2B. While the Knicks lack of defense certainly has the potential to mess up this under, with both teams paces I don't really see the Bulls scoring more than 100 points here. Two units for this play.

[NBASharp]

GSW@LAC: GSW +6.5 (-105) - (1x) - Pinnacle
GSW@LAC: GSW ML (+213) - (.5x) - Pinnacle

Card is final.

[NBASharp]

Biggest play of the night cashed easily, unfortunately the Warriors couldn't keep up with the Clippers.

Record: 3-5 (-0.57)

[NBASharp]

SAS@LAL: Over 207 (-101) - (2x) - Pinnacle

Absolutely love this play. Was marking this game already a couple of games ago. In my opinion this one really has the potential to be played out as the Warriors game. D'Antoni just wants to run a lot, which is bad for a couple of reasons in my opinion.

A. The best players on his team are old. Kaman, Gasol, Blake and also Nash, are not physically able to run teams out of the building. Besides, even the youngsters don't really fit in this offense. For example, a guy like Nick Young is not someone you want to finish in transition. He can run but is often out of control, and doesn’t really understand the basics of positioning in transition. The only players that can not only run but position themselves really well in transition are Farmar, Meeks and maybe Henry. These are your role players. To install an offense that underutilizes your star players is just really bad.
B. The Lakers will be the underdog a lot this season, especially the period that Bryant is still out. As an underdog to give yourself the best chance of winning, statistically you have to limit the number of possessions, hence play a slow pace and stopping the opponent from playing a fast pace. This way you basically increase the variance of the outcome of the game, giving yourself a better chance of winning. Bad teams with good coaches do this. D’Antoni just doesn’t give a damn and runs regardless of the position that the Lakers are in.

Anyway, I think D’Antoni’s philosophy, or lack thereof, is pure gold from a sports betting perspective. The bookies are setting the spread much sharper than last season. Last season my best team that I bet on (often against) were the Lakers, because the bookies needed a long time to figure out how awful they often played. As a Lakers fan I watched every game of them; 86 games, and I hate to admit it but their chances of getting into the Playoffs are really, really slim.

Anyway, this having said about the Lakers – I expect this to be a high scoring game because of the pace. I told myself before the line came out to pound the over when the line was lower than 212. The Spurs, much like the Warriors, absolutely don’t mind to play a fast pace. They have great sets in the halfcourt game, but can run with the best of them. I’m absolutely certain that Popovich realizes that a fast pace is actually the Achilles heel of the Lakers. Duncan probably won’t play, which is a good thing for the over because (1) Splitter just can’t protect the paint on his own against dribble penetration and (2) when Duncan receives the ball in the post the Spurs offense usually get really stagnant. Splitter (and even Diaw) are much more mobile and will keep the offense in motion. Once again, I think this line should be around 212-213; this can be a really fun game. Two units.

OKC@MIN: MIN -2.5 (-103) - (1x) - Pinnacle
MIA@BKN: Under 193 (-103) - (1x) - Pinnacle

[NBASharp]

Very disappointing day, I liked the pace in the Lakers game but they just couldn't make any shots. I don't remember how many bunnies they missed in the 1st quarter but both teams looked really raw in the finishing aspect.

Record: 4-7 (-2.6)

CHI@PHI: CHI -8.5 (-107) - (1x) - Pinnacle
GSW@SAC: Over 207 (-108) - (1x) - Pinnacle
CLE@IND: Under 188 (-100) - (1x) - Pinnacle

[lucullus]

Hahahah

[NBASharp]

Awful run so far. Hope things turn around quickly...

Record: 5-9 (-3.67)

MIN@NYK: MIN +3.5 (-106) - (2x) - Pinnacle
BKN@ORL: ORL +5.5 (-107) - (1x) - Pinnacle

[NBASharp]

Orlando is an easy winner. Minnesota looking good as well so early.

Record: 6-9 (-2.74)

[NBASharp]

​Record: 7-9 (-0.86)

[NBASharp]

HOU@LAC: Over 53 (1st quarter, -114) - (1x) - Pinnacle

Price already down a lot, but I still like this play. Houston were ranked 2nd last year in points scored in the first quarter in away games. Their run-and-gun style of play hasn't change a bit with Dwight in the line-up. Even though it's a small sample size, the Clippers seem to like storming out of the gates themselves. Their pace has been really high from the start in all three games. They played the Lakers on opening night and they showed they don't back down from a fast game with early shots in the shot-clock. The Clippers average 30 points in the first quarter in the first three games. Once again, this is small sample size but it shows the mindset of the players and the coach. I also like the ref crew assigned to this game for the over. I hate that I couldn't find time to look into today's games otherwise I would've jumped big on the opening line of 206.5. I don't think there's value anymore, but this 1st quarter bet is still worth it for one unit.

[NBASharp]

Well that one was easy with 67 points in the first quarter. Perfectly break-even now.

Record: 8-9 (+0.00)

[NBASharp]

First play for tonight.

MIA@TOR: TOR +5 (-101) - (1x) - Pinnacle

Adding:

ATL@SAC: SAC -2 (-107) - (1x) - Pinnacle
IND@DET: IND ML (-109) - (1x) - Pinnacle

[imarkp]

like ind to capitalize on sloppy det play. on sac too. for what its worth home dogs 12-4 ats so bodes well for sac, gl

[imarkp]

last I heard bosh doubtful tonight. wife having baby. crazy game last night in la. was glad to have clips and over. doubled up on 2nd half over too. wish they all were that easy. more than made up for rogers getting knocked out of game and killing my -3/o44 teaser. didn't even watch 2nd half. too much fun watching clippers game. time for you to get on plus side. appreciate write ups too.

[NBASharp]

Great to hear that imarkp. Clippers most certainly was a great game to watch, but I doubt the coaches will think the same. This looked like an All-Star game with no defense. Hope these three plays get me into the green numbers, might add a few more plays later too. Now time for European Champions League football

Btw it is confirmed that Bosh will not play tonight. His absence is one of the reasons I like Toronto in this matchup.

[NBASharp]

Adding:

HOU@POR: POR -1.5 (-109) - (1x) - Pinnacle
SAS@DEN: Under 204 (-107) - (1x) - Pinnacle

Card is final.

[imarkp]

that sac. game sucked. crawled back then...well you know the rest. we seem to be interested in a lot of same games. didn't see your last 2 bets till now. had hou and almost bet sas o. do you bet games early or wait closer to tipoff? btw, just saw my 1:33 post and meant to say tor not sac...not that it matters now. congrats on plus side.

[NBASharp]

Not on the plus side yet, 2-3 record last night. I normally like to bet games early but it really depends, sometimes I like to wait for information about injuries, practice interviews or anticipated line movement.

Record: 10-12 (-1.16x)

[NBASharp]

First play of tonight:

DAL@OKC: OKC -2 (1st quarter, -113) - (1x) - Pinnacle

Can write an whole piece about this, but the bottom line is that OKC last season led the league in 1st quarter margin at home with four points. Dallas faced little resistance last night and will face a team that is a lot better defensively. They probably will need some time to find some answers offensively against this team in a hostile environment.

[NBASharp]

Adding:

CHI@IND: Under 182.5 (-103) - (1x) - Pinnacle
CLE@MIL: Under 189.5 (-105) - (1x) - Pinnacle