[trigga50]

This is my 3rd season capping NBA and my first thread on SBR. I focus mainly on Australian Rules football, NBL and NBA. NBA has been by far my most successful sport in terms of profitability over the last few years, however I have never kept an accurate record.

Im hoping to use this thread to both share my NBA picks and keep track of my seasons record.

I don't use a numbers based system to generate picks, instead I focus on a mixture of events and statistics to predict the outcome.

I'm sure it goes without saying but I'd like to welcome any feedback or discussions before or after games.

Lets have a cracker of an NBA season.

[trigga50]

I know this may cop some controversy but Im going to start with a NBA future play.

Brooklyn Nets to Win 13/14 NBA Championship X1.5 UNITS @$13 to win 19.5 UNITS (Centrebet)

Ive spent the last few days separating two of some of my favourite players (Garnett and Pierce) from my decision making process in making this play. If Deron Williams can stay healthy this year and has the support of his fellow all star cast, I can see them taking it all the way this year. They have the size, defence, shooters and bench to match Miami, Indiana and Chicago. Their second unit (if they can stay healthy) will feature Shaun Livingston, Jason Terry, Andrei Kirilenko and Andray Blatche. The chemistry between Garnett, Peirce and Terry is already there and should easily match up with Deron Williams, Joe Johnson and Lopez. Their only weak point this season could be their speed and might find Houston and OKC to be a hurdle. Having said this, getting on $13 odds early is too hard to pass up and represents great value.

[Coolin]

I know this may cop some controversy but Im going to start with a NBA future play.

Brooklyn Nets to Win 13/14 NBA Championship X1.5 UNITS @$13 to win 19.5 UNITS (Centrebet)

Ive spent the last few days separating two of some of my favourite players (Garnett and Pierce) from my decision making process in making this play. If Deron Williams can stay healthy this year and has the support of his fellow all star cast, I can see them taking it all the way this year. They have the size, defence, shooters and bench to match Miami, Indiana and Chicago. Their second unit (if they can stay healthy) will feature Shaun Livingston, Jason Terry, Andrei Kirilenko and Andray Blatche. The chemistry between Garnett, Peirce and Terry is already there and should easily match up with Deron Williams, Joe Johnson and Lopez. Their only weak point this season could be their speed and might find Houston and OKC to be a hurdle. Having said this, getting on $13 odds early is too hard to pass up and represents great value.

waste of $13.

[therealdealau]

good luck pal

[trigga50]

Indiana -11.5 X 1 UNIT @$1.91 (centrebet) to win .91 UNITS

Only game that stands out to me in the opening day. Orlando are not a good side in my opinion. Nelson is injury prone, Afflalo is a streaky shooter hot one night and cold the next, Big baby is out injured and they have little depth coming off the bench. Indiana are a top side and will be fired up to put in a good first performance in front of their home crowd. Indiana blew Orlando out twice last season in double digit wins. Although the line is fairly big for an opening game, I think this will be a similar scenario.

I also think Chicago may cover against Miami tomorrow, and had a slight lean towards the under on the Indiana and Orlando game. Not enough to warrant a play though.

[trigga50]

Been away for a few days and missed some big NBA cards. Just aswell its a long season

Plays for today

Boston -2. X 2 UNITS @ 1.90 to win 1.8 UNITS

Torronto +3.5 x 1.5 UNITS @1.90 to win 1.35

Minnesota -2 x 2 UNITS @1.90 to win 1.8UNITS

Detroit +7.5 x 1 UNIT @1.90 to win .90

Cavaliers -3 x 1 UNIT @1.90 to win .90

San Antonio -8 x 1 UNIT @1.90 to win .90

Dont have time for write ups because im on my mobile.

[trigga50]

Minnesota vs ny

Minnesota +3.5 @ 1.90 x 3 Units to win 2.7 Units

[easysaid]

Looking good man, maybe keep a record this time round tho.

[trigga50]

Great to see Minnesota come up with the win today in NY. Just the break I needed after getting off to a rocky start. Im back home now after being away, so should have some more time to pose and put more time into games.

[trigga50]

Looking good man, maybe keep a record this time round tho.

Thanks mate, the whole point of me doing this is so that I keep record. Every few days Ill update my total record.

[trigga50]

NBA 13-14 Season -1.1 UNITS

Rough start but there is a lot of factors to get used to this season. There have been a handful of close results so far, so hopefully Im on the right track. Onwards and upwards.

[trigga50]

Going into tomorrow we have Minnesota on a back to back visiting Cleveland. Cleveland came out strong to start the season beating Brooklyn, but has failed to impress in their following two games. The books have made Cleveland two point favourites largely due to the fact Minnesota are on a back to back. Minnesota are a relatively young team and a back to back will not be a big deal for them. They seem to have their eye on the prize and working together nicely on the basketball court. Martin is a great fit to Minnesota, gives them better court spread, more offensive opportunities and 3 pointers.

Although its the start of the season and team statistics are a bit hard to factor in, Minnesota are currently ranked 5th in offence vs Cleveland who are ranked league worst 30th

Although the Cleveland team seem good on paper, they have been unable to gel in their last two games. There have been no signs of injuries or players to rest after Minnesota's games today. Although the line seems very generous by the books I'm getting on Minnesota again.

Minnesota +2 @1.90 X 2.5 UNITS to win 2.25 UNITS

[sando]

Good luck this season Trigga. Nice to see somebody else who does write-ups. 100 NBA season threads and everybody just posts theirs plays with zero analysis.

[trigga50]

Thanks for stopping in Sando. Sometimes by putting your thoughts in writing you can talk your self further into a play or talk yourself out of a play. Worth while doing if you can find the time.

[trigga50]

My woeful Boston are visiting Memphis today. The books have given Boston a massive 12 point under dog line. This is very well deserved. After going down to Dallas and San Antonio, Memphis will be keen to get back on home court and get a big confidence win under their belt. I was cringing watching Bostons effort yesterday against Detroit. They came all the way back into the game with 3 minutes left and then failed to score for the rest of the match. Avery Bradley coughed up the ball 3 times in the last 3 minutes! Anyway enough of me rambling on about Boston. Mike Conoley will have a field trip against Boston who do not have a legit point guard. I'm looking into individual player props now, assists may be worth a look. Avery Bradley is a great defender and may keep him quiet for points.

Im expecting Gasol and Randolph to dominate Boston bigs. Memphis is also a really good defensive team and I don't think Boston will have the ability to easily score without Rondo.

Memphis -12 @$1.90 X 1.5 UNITS to win 1.35 UNITS

[trigga50]

Adding a player prop >

Mike Conoley OVER 6.5 Assists @ 1.83 X 1.5 UNITS to win 1.24 UNITS

[trigga50]

Couple more, no write ups sorry

HOUSTON @ LA CLIPPERS

HOUSTON ROCKETS +5 @$1.91 X 1 UNIT to win .91 UNITS

GS @ PHILLY

GS HT+FT DOUBLE @1.73 X 1.5 UNITS to win 1.09 UNITS

[OZnBa Fan]

My woeful Boston are visiting Memphis today. The books have given Boston a massive 12 point under dog line. This is very well deserved. After going down to Dallas and San Antonio, Memphis will be keen to get back on home court and get a big confidence win under their belt. I was cringing watching Bostons effort yesterday against Detroit. They came all the way back into the game with 3 minutes left and then failed to score for the rest of the match. Avery Bradley coughed up the ball 3 times in the last 3 minutes! Anyway enough of me rambling on about Boston. Mike Conoley will have a field trip against Boston who do not have a legit point guard. I'm looking into individual player props now, assists may be worth a look. Avery Bradley is a great defender and may keep him quiet for points.

Im expecting Gasol and Randolph to dominate Boston bigs. Memphis is also a really good defensive team and I don't think Boston will have the ability to easily score without Rondo.

Memphis -12 @$1.90 X 1.5 UNITS to win 1.35 UNITS

nice thread pal.... I was watching the Boston game against the bucks the other day and the Celtics were in complete control until they flopped, once the game had finished seeing the body language of the Celtics players walking off the court was not good and from then on I thought they are in for loooooooonnnnnnggg season

GL

[trigga50]

NBA 13-14 Season +0.98 UNITS

much more positive day catching up 2.08 UNITS.

IMO I got really lucky on the Minnesota spread, they went on a really late run in the second half.

Big 9 game card tomorrow.

[trigga50]

Bobcats VS New York

I like New York in this spot. They were dismantled early on by Minnesota in their last game, but seemed to start working it out in the second half and came back from way behind. This is a great chance for New York to bounce back at home when Bobcats come to town. I like this even more with big Al missing from Bobcats line up. In my opinion you cannot have a centre on your team (Bismack Biyombo) playing 26 minutes on the court who does not put up a single shot for the whole game, this is a poor replacement for a guy like Al Jefferson and it leaves a big offensive hole in the Bobcats line up.

Between Felton, Hardaway JR and Shumpert, NY will have the leg speed to match any pace that the Bobcats have. Hopefully Mike Brown will have his guys focused from tip off and the crowd gets involved early to spur on guys like Carmelo and Hardaway JR who are confidence players.

Currently after a few games Bobcats are already ranked the worst team in the league for offensive scoring. NY are not much better with an average of 90ppg. I think NY will be too strong in this match up.

NY - 9 @$1.90 X 1.5 UNITS to win 1.35 UNITS

[trigga50]

Houston @ Portland

Houston on a B2B, Harden was rested for the whole 4th quarter. Houston is the better side, both teams have been scoring high numbers this season and have good pace. Both teams are not effected by injury in their starting lineups. Should be a good game.

Houston ML @$2.05 X2 UNITS to win 2.10 UNITS

OVER 207.5 @1.90 X 2 UNITS to win 1.8 UNITS

[trigga50]

Indiana @ Detroit

George Hill* will be missing in action in tonights game. I think Detroit will match up really well with Indianas Bigs and provide good run with Jennings back in his second game.

Detroit ML @$1.90 X 1.5 UNITS to win 1.35 UNITS

[sando]

Indiana @ Detroit

Paul George will be missing in action in tonights game. I think Detroit will match up really well with Indianas Bigs and provide good run with Jennings back in his second game.

Detroit ML @$1.90 X 1.5 UNITS to win 1.35 UNITS

I think you mean George Hill mate, but good luck with your play.

[trigga50]

I think you mean George Hill mate, but good luck with your play.

Haha im a retard, I get the George's mixed up all the time that I need to double check who Im referring too.

[trigga50]

Really happy yesterday cashing the prop on Mike Conoley assists over 6.5. Going to try a few more today.

Player Props

Kyle Lowry OVER 13.5 POINTS @ $1.83 X2.5 UNITS to win 2.07 UNITS

Ray Allen OVER 12.5 POINTS @ $1.83 X 1 UNIT to win 0.83 UNITS

Adding...

Rudy Gay OVER 18.5 Points @$1.83 X 1.5 UNITS to win 1.24 UNITS

[trigga50]

Miami @ Torronto

Late play I like

Torronto +5 @$1.90 X 1 UNIT to win .90 UNITS

[trigga50]

really rough day. I was very happy to see Houston get up and the over cash. It was my most confident plays of the day.

Having said that the player props fell short, Rudy Gay played like a sulking school girl and Augustin got too much court time, which kept Lowry 3 points short of cashing. I was really annoyed watching the game and seeing Augustin play terrible and turn the ball over multiple times while the better PG Lowry was sitting on the bench during crucial parts of the game.

Toronto looked good early, but came up way short against the experienced Miami team. Ray Allen player prop only just cashed in the end. The idea behind this bet was that Allen would get increased minutes due to Bosh being out of the rotation.

All up I fell -1.77 UNITS down for the day. Which puts me back into the negative for the season. -0.98 UNITS Season

[trigga50]

Plays for today, not time for write ups sorry but heaps of interesting games today.

Dallas @ OKC
Dallas +7 @$1.90 X 3 UNITS to win 2.7 UNITS

Cleveland @ Milwaukee
Cleveland -1.5 @$1.90 X 1.5UNITS to win 1.35 UNITS

Utah @ Boston
Boston -3.5 @$1.90 X 1.5 UNITS to win 1.35 UNITS

NO @ Memphis
NO + 7.5 @$1.90 X 1 UNIT to win .90 UNITS

Toronto @ Charlotte
Toronto -2.5 @1.90 X 1.5 UNITS to win 1.35 UNITS

Washington @ Philly
Washington -2.5 @1.90 X 1 UNIT to win .90 UNITS

Totals
Toronto @ Charlotte OVER 186.5 @$1.90 X 2.5 UNITS to win 2.25

GS @ Minnesota OVER 209.5 @1.90 X 1.5 UNITS to win 1.35

Player Props

Kevin Martin OVER 17.5 points @1.83 X 1.5 UNITS to win 1.24 UNITS

Kevin Love OVER 25.5 points @1.83 X 1.5 UNITS to win 1.24 UNITS

[trigga50]

Terrible day yesterday moving my season total to -8.88 UNITS

My totals didn't come anywhere near the mark, Kevin Love scored 25 points missing the over by 1. Dallas and Toronto were big let downs, I was very confident on the Dallas game.

[minathomas88]

Keep up the hard work trigga ull get rewarded soon

[trigga50]

NBA FRIDAY

NY @ BOBCATS

OVER 190 @$1.90 X2.5 UNITS to win 2.25 UNITS
BOBCATS +3.5 @$1.90 X1 UNIT to win .90 UNITS

Boston @ Orlando

Orlando -4.5 @1.90 X 1 UNIT to win .90 UNITS

GS @ SA

GS +6 @$1.90 X1.5 UNITS to win 1.35 UNITS

Denver @ Phoenix

OVER 200.5 @$1.90 X 1.5 UNITS to win 1.35 UNITS

Kings @ Portland

Over 201.5 @$1.91 X1.5 UNITS to win 1.35 UNITS



Player Props

Kyle Lowrie OVER 12.5 Points @$1.82 X 1.5 UNITS to win 1.24 UNITS

[trigga50]

NBA FRIDAY

NY @ BOBCATS

OVER 190 @$1.90 X2.5 UNITS to win 2.25 UNITS
BOBCATS +3.5 @$1.90 X1 UNIT to win .90 UNITS

Boston @ Orlando

Orlando -4.5 @1.90 X 1 UNIT to win .90 UNITS

GS @ SA

GS +6 @$1.90 X1.5 UNITS to win 1.35 UNITS

Denver @ Phoenix

OVER 200.5 @$1.90 X 1.5 UNITS to win 1.35 UNITS

Kings @ Portland

Over 201.5 @$1.91 X1.5 UNITS to win 1.35 UNITS



Player Props

Kyle Lowrie OVER 12.5 Points @$1.82 X 1.5 UNITS to win 1.24 UNITS

Up 1.3 Units for the day. -7.58 Units down for season. Had some more bad luck on player props with Lowrie finishing the game on 12 points on 4/10 shooting. Interesting that Kevin Martin Player props for PPG have gone from 12.5 start of the season up to 19.5.

NY and Bobcats over landed nicely on 192, 4th quarter really slowed down which had me worried up until the end.

Great to see that my Boston boys have decided to win some games before Rondo comes back. I was fairly confident on Orlando getting up today.

[trigga50]

Only 4 games on for NBA Sunday but each game has value

Spurs @ NY
Spurs are off to a good start on top of Western Conference going 5-1. NY have struggled to start the season, however hit some form last game when Bargani played Centre and had a massive defensive and scoring night filling in for Tyson Chandler. JR Smith will also be joining NY after his 5 game suspension. Both teams should be relatively fresh for this match up. With Bargani's newly found scoring power, JR smith and Carmelo banging down jumpers combined with Tony Parkers driving ability and Tim Duncans experience I think the Over is looking good in this situation. I also like the experienced Spurs to cover the 3 point line here. NY have not proven anything yet and are not gelling as a team, where as Spurs are almost unchanged from last year and have a lot more chemistry.

Both teams have been averaging 94-95 points per game and the books have got the total set at 195.5 which gives us an insight that the books are expecting this game to be a higher total. NY's last 3 games on average have totalled 200 points since Tyson Chandler has been injured.


OVER 195.5 @$1.90 X 3 UNITS to win 2.7 UNITS
SAN ANTONIO -3 @$1.90 X1 UNIT to win .90 UNITS



Wizzards @ Thunder

9.5 points is a big number to give Wizzards as a handicap. OKC are really only just starting to hit their stride after getting Westbrook back in the team. They have manufactured some team chemistry off their bench, getting an extra 5 points per game from their bench compared to last season. Wizzards have also found a bit of form with Gortat settling in and Nene coming back from injury. John Wall and Beal both posted massive lines in their previous win against Brooklyn.

Because both teams have had a one day break, and are both in form I like the over here as well. Both teams are ranked highly in overall scoring and mid to low in points allowed. Washington jack up the most 3's per game in the competition connecting at 42.7%, which can be dangerous if they get going. OKC is a free throw machine, getting the league best 26.2 made free throws per game. All signs here and recent form point to the over.

OVER 204 @$1.90 X 2 UNITS to win 1.8 UNITS
Wizzards +9.5 @$1.90 X1 UNIT to win .90 UNITS


Pelicans @ Suns

Phoenix have been a tough team to pick this season. On paper it seams like an odd mixture of players and rookies, but somehow their offence really works. Ive only watched 2 of their games so far this season and I was amazed at their game play on both occasions. Bledsoe is an absolute gun and has the ability to effectively create scoring opportunities anytime he brings the ball up the court.

Pelicans have also been a surprise in the pre season and start of the season, claiming some big scalps early on. Although I have no leans for who will win this game, Im pretty confident on some Overs.

There are no 1st quarter markets out yet but... Both teams are ranked highly in 1st quarter points. In both teams it is their best performing quarter. Phoenix average 26, and Pelicans average 27.67 which gives us an average total of 53.67 (without taking defensive characteristics into consideration). With the game total set at 195.5, any 1st quarter market around the 49 mark would be well worth a play on the over.

STAY TUNED
I also like the game total going over on this one. I know this is the 3rd Over in the same day that Im playing, but I wouldn't play it unless I thought it was worth while.

OVER 195.5 @$1.90 X 1.5 UNITS to win 1.35 UNITS


Minnesota @ LA

The only thing that can save LA in any game without Kobe this season is if they hit 25 3 pointers per game. I know that sounds like a pretty stupid thing to say but the team has not shown much this season at all. Minnesota a far better team with a lot more depth. Minnesota will be keen to get up big in this one and start getting a winning streak started after a few close loses to Cleveland and Golden State.

Minnesota -3.5 @$1.90 X 2.5 UNITS to win 2.25 UNITS

[trigga50]

Only 4 games on for NBA Sunday but each game has value

Spurs @ NY
Spurs are off to a good start on top of Western Conference going 5-1. NY have struggled to start the season, however hit some form last game when Bargani played Centre and had a massive defensive and scoring night filling in for Tyson Chandler. JR Smith will also be joining NY after his 5 game suspension. Both teams should be relatively fresh for this match up. With Bargani's newly found scoring power, JR smith and Carmelo banging down jumpers combined with Tony Parkers driving ability and Tim Duncans experience I think the Over is looking good in this situation. I also like the experienced Spurs to cover the 3 point line here. NY have not proven anything yet and are not gelling as a team, where as Spurs are almost unchanged from last year and have a lot more chemistry.

Both teams have been averaging 94-95 points per game and the books have got the total set at 195.5 which gives us an insight that the books are expecting this game to be a higher total. NY's last 3 games on average have totalled 200 points since Tyson Chandler has been injured.


OVER 195.5 @$1.90 X 3 UNITS to win 2.7 UNITS
SAN ANTONIO -3 @$1.90 X1 UNIT to win .90 UNITS



Wizzards @ Thunder

9.5 points is a big number to give Wizzards as a handicap. OKC are really only just starting to hit their stride after getting Westbrook back in the team. They have manufactured some team chemistry off their bench, getting an extra 5 points per game from their bench compared to last season. Wizzards have also found a bit of form with Gortat settling in and Nene coming back from injury. John Wall and Beal both posted massive lines in their previous win against Brooklyn.

Because both teams have had a one day break, and are both in form I like the over here as well. Both teams are ranked highly in overall scoring and mid to low in points allowed. Washington jack up the most 3's per game in the competition connecting at 42.7%, which can be dangerous if they get going. OKC is a free throw machine, getting the league best 26.2 made free throws per game. All signs here and recent form point to the over.

OVER 204 @$1.90 X 2 UNITS to win 1.8 UNITS
Wizzards +9.5 @$1.90 X1 UNIT to win .90 UNITS


Pelicans @ Suns

Phoenix have been a tough team to pick this season. On paper it seams like an odd mixture of players and rookies, but somehow their offence really works. Ive only watched 2 of their games so far this season and I was amazed at their game play on both occasions. Bledsoe is an absolute gun and has the ability to effectively create scoring opportunities anytime he brings the ball up the court.

Pelicans have also been a surprise in the pre season and start of the season, claiming some big scalps early on. Although I have no leans for who will win this game, Im pretty confident on some Overs.

There are no 1st quarter markets out yet but... Both teams are ranked highly in 1st quarter points. In both teams it is their best performing quarter. Phoenix average 26, and Pelicans average 27.67 which gives us an average total of 53.67 (without taking defensive characteristics into consideration). With the game total set at 195.5, any 1st quarter market around the 49 mark would be well worth a play on the over.

STAY TUNED
I also like the game total going over on this one. I know this is the 3rd Over in the same day that Im playing, but I wouldn't play it unless I thought it was worth while.

OVER 195.5 @$1.90 X 1.5 UNITS to win 1.35 UNITS


Minnesota @ LA

The only thing that can save LA in any game without Kobe this season is if they hit 25 3 pointers per game. I know that sounds like a pretty stupid thing to say but the team has not shown much this season at all. Minnesota a far better team with a lot more depth. Minnesota will be keen to get up big in this one and start getting a winning streak started after a few close loses to Cleveland and Golden State.

Minnesota -3.5 @$1.90 X 2.5 UNITS to win 2.25 UNITS

Adding;

Pelicans at Phoenix
Highest scoring quarter - 1st quarter @$3.50 X 1 UNIT to win 2.5 UNITS (bet365)
1st quarter OVER 48.5 points @$1.77 X 2 UNITS to win 1.54 UNITS (Sports Bet)

You may get better value at other books on the first quarter line, I was impatient and sportsbet were the first book to open up on this market that I have.

[trigga50]

Great day in NBA, Up 4.2 Units. yes i got lucky with Wizards and OKC game going into over time. I had a better day than what I posted, when I was writing my post Bet365 had the Phoenix and Pelicans game at 195.5 but when I placed the bet a few minutes later the line went down to 195 giving me a Push rather than a loss. Im not counting this in my record of course.

NBA Season -3.38 Units

Slowly clawing my way back to +