[Jay Edgar]

MONEYLINE PLAYS (risking 1u on dogs; betting to win 1u on favorites)
Sunday, 2-5, -1.37u
(CHI, ATL, ORL, MIA, WAS, GS, SAC)
YTD 220-390, +58.62u

SAME TEAMS ATS (1.05u to win 1.00u)
Sunday, 5-2, +2.90u
YTD 326-275 (.542) +37.25u

POWER RATINGS OVER LAST TEN GAMES
1 SAN 72
2 DAL 70
3 TOR 65
4 UTH 65
5 DET 64
6 CLE 62
7 CHI 60
8 MIA 60
9 HOU 57
10 LAX 57
11 NOK 55
12 SEA 53
13 POR 51
14 PHX 50
15 NJ 48
16 CHA 48
17 SAC 46
18 DEN 46
19 MEM 45
20 ORL 44
21 ATL 43
22 MIL 43
23 NY 43
24 GS 41
25 WAS 39
26 PHI 39
27 BOS 38
28 MIN 37
29 IND 36
30 LAC 33


EDGAR LINES FOR 02.26.07
(favorite-spread/moneyline-dog)

PHI 3.0/138 over SAC

NY 5.1/181 over MIA

SAN 5.6/144 over TOR

MEM 4.9/176 over DEN

DAL 7.9/324 over ATL

HOU 5.7/199 over BOS

CHI 7.6/309 over ORL

UTH 6.2/227 over LAX

SEA 2.9/134 over POR

LAC 1.9/121 over CHA

STRIKE PRICES (5%-OFF MARKER)
(At this moneyline or better, team is a play both SU and ATS under 5%-ML-OFF method.)

SAC +164, PHI -116

MIA +219, NY -152

TOR +236, SAN -162

DEN +212, MEM -147

ATL +416, DAL -260

BOS +241, HOU -165

ORL +394, CHI -249

LAX +278, UTH -187

POR +160, SEA -113

CHA +144, LAC -102

20%-OFF MARKER
(This moneyline is now 20% away from Edgar ML. Teams this strongly preferred by the Edgar Line have not performed as well as teams preferred by less.)

SAC +330, PHI +155

MIA +497, NY +119

TOR +559, SAN +112

DEN +473, MEM +122

ATL +1998, DAL -136

BOS +581, HOU +110

ORL +1666, CHI -131

LAX +745, UTH -102

POR +348, SEA +160

CHA +278, LAC +178

[bigboydan]

We definitely have an interesting slate tonight Jay.

[Jay Edgar]

The lines are a lot better at this stage of the season – that’s pretty clear. The late steam knocked the Knicks out of qualifying and took away about a unit and a half from the Celtics ML win.

The Spurs' stretch over the last six games is as good as any team has had all year. They are once again deadly to oppose, along with the Mavs and (maybe) the Suns (again).

SAN's current power rating of 77 is a new high for any team this year.

% TEAM ATS ML
6 BOS WIN 257
10 TOR LOSS -100
15 POR LOSS -100
16 ATL LOSS -100
22 MEM LOSS -100
30 CHA WIN -100

MONEYLINE PLAYS (risking 1u on dogs; betting to win 1u on favorites)
Monday, 1-5, -2.43u
(TOR, MEM, ATL, BOS, POR, CHA)
YTD 221-395, +56.19u

SAME TEAMS ATS (1.05u to win 1.00u)
Monday, 2-4, -2.20u
YTD 328-279 (.540) +35.05u

[bigboydan]

Glad to see the Celtics cashed for us tonight Jay.

[The HG]

The Spurs' stretch over the last six games is as good as any team has had all year. They are once again deadly to oppose, along with the Mavs and (maybe) the Suns (again).

That's interesting Jay. Perhaps "elite" teams each year behave differently than other teams? Do you assume that different calibers of teams behave differently in response to recent performance, or do you assume that all teams behave equally regardless of how good or bad they might be?

[Jay Edgar]

Just saw this, General. The way I calculate the lines doesn't really account for this phenomenon, which surely seems to be true. (That is, there's no extra boost in the ratings or the lines for an 'elite' team.) I'm not sure how I would factor it in -- one way to do it that I think wouldn't work would be to give more weight to where the teams are in my power-rating-over-last-ten games. That wouldn't work because the elite teams aren't always at the top of those ratings in the same way that they are at the top of the NBA standings.

But there's probably a way to do it.

And it seems very evident that the elite teams have picked their games up a notch, in the way that my numbers aren't fully capturing.