[fearless]

I think it's going to be tough for the Heat to beat anyone without Wade. I'm thinking they'll become the new Memphis Grizzlies immediately (26% win percentage). What do you think?

I like this analysis from John Hollinger:

As things stand today, the Heat are 26-27 and in possession of the eighth seed in the East, but without Wade it's hard to imagine that situation remaining the same for long. The Heat are 1-6 when Wade hasn't played this season, with all six losses in double figures.

And in the other 46 games, it's only been the brilliance of the league's top-rated player that has kept the team's head above water. As I've been pointing out since the third week of the season, Wade's supporting cast has been horrid.

Yes, Shaquille O'Neal is back, but this isn't the Shaq of old. Minus their lone superstar (sorry, Shaq), it's tough to imagine the Heat winning more than a third of their games -- and that may be generous, considering they were barely over .500 even when Wade played.

Estimates of Wade's absence seem to be running between four and six weeks; based on Miami's upcoming schedule, that would knock him out for between 13 and 20 games. If it's the shorter of those estimates, the Heat might be able to survive the blow. Say Miami guts out a couple tough wins and manages to go 4-9 without Wade, dropping it to 30-36. The Heat could still make up ground in the final 16 games, and with a fairly light closing schedule the Heat might still get back to the 40 or so wins they'd probably need to get a playoff spot.

But if he's out six weeks, forget it. Then we're talking about 20 games, and if the Heat go 6-14 in that stretch (which might be optimistic) they'll be 32-41 by the time Wade gets back, with only nine games left to repair their record. Meanwhile, with New Jersey at 25-30 this morning and expecting Richard Jefferson back in early March, it stands to reason the Nets will end up around the 40-win mark themselves. So unless the Heat ran the table when Wade came back, they'd be looking at lotteryville.

http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/blog...hollinger_john

[onlooker]

They wont make the playoffs, and pretty much are done for this season. Just when they were getting healthy, Wade goes out. Thats a big shot to the team.

They might as well start thinking about the NBA Draft.

[fearless]

They wont make the playoffs, and pretty much are done for this season. Just when they were getting healthy, Wade goes out. Thats a big shot to the team.

They might as well start thinking about the NBA Draft.

If you don't mind me asking. If you feel this way, why did you take the Heat +13 against Dallas?

[Crayzee]

they will lose but cover every game he is out
(assuming theyre thedog)
if theyre favored against some weaker teams they'll win some but not cover

[onlooker]

If you don't mind me asking. If you feel this way, why did you take the Heat +13 against Dallas?

Even though I think they are done, dont mean they cant cover spreads. Meaning there could be some nice value if they overprice the other team because of Wade being out.

I think it was the Knicks they just crushed that time Wade and Shaq were both out. Start the game 41-9 or something like that.

[The HG]

They clearly will either become the new Memphis or the new Boston. It's not a good sign that they've lost all 7 games without Wade by DD, except for the wacky Knicks game. I remember Portland, at the end of last year, was losing every game by DD, and would be a huge dog and be a bad bet every time out. The same could happen with Miami, or, like Boston, teams may have no interest in blasting them every game.

Tread lightly at first, but if a clear pattern emerges, there could well be value betting Miami games. As of now, though, it's not clear. If they go for a "youth movement" at the end of the year, they will get blasted every time out. But teams often do adapt to being without their big stars, and Boston could easily become more competitive at the end of the year than their lines will indicate.

[seaborneq]

The Heat will not be in the playoffs. They were not a playoff team with Wade.

[fearless]

they will lose but cover every game he is out
(assuming theyre thedog)
if theyre favored against some weaker teams they'll win some but not cover

That's Crayzee man, Crayzee.

[fearless]

The Heat will not be in the playoffs. They were not a playoff team with Wade.

They won the finals last year with the same team they have now. How can you say they weren't a playoff team with Wade?

[Illusion]

I wouldn't be surprised if they snuck in the backdoor of the playoffs as an 8 seed.

[kalmikrazy]

In the longrun, this team was set up for failure with the aging roster and Im thinkin that Riley will step down. Its better to tank it ( I dont think they have to on purpose w/o wade) and take your shot at a good player in the lottery.