Here is the report on the 5%-OFF method plays at the ASB (64% of the way through the regular season), along with some comments, for anyone interested.
(Click on the link in my signature for a full explanation of what we’re doing.)
Everything below assumes 1unit = 100
Here are the total results:
All ML PLAYS
217-377 +6746
All ATS PLAYS
316-267-11 (.542) +3565
Here are the results week by week:
ML PLAYS
Week ending/# of games/W-L/net
5-Nov 23g 15-8 +1689
12-Nov 35g 9-26 -283
19-Nov 37g 12-25 +234
26-Nov 39g 17-22 +57
3-Dec 35g 12-23 +101
10-Dec 43g 14-29 +726
17-Dec 49g 18-31 +24
24-Dec 36g 15-21 +1166
31-Dec 16g 6-10 +56
7-Jan 70g 24-46 -66
14-Jan 21g 7-14 +170
21-Jan 42g 15-27 +57
28-Jan 47g 15-32 +1279
4-Feb 38g 17-21 +1681
11-Feb 44g 17-27 +545
18-Feb 19g 4-15 -690
13 winning weeks, 3 losing weeks, +6746 total
ATS PLAYS
Week ending/W-L/pct/net
5-Nov 16-7 .696 +865
12-Nov 18-17 .514 +15
19-Nov 16-21 .432 -605
26-Nov 23-16 .590 +620
3-Dec 23-12 .657 +1040
10-Dec 18-25 .419 -825
17-Dec 27-20 .574 +600
24-Dec 19-17 .528 +115
31-Dec 7-8 .467 -140
7-Jan 34-32 .515 +40
14-Jan 11-10 .524 +50
21-Jan 24-17 .585 +615
28-Jan 29-18 .617 +1010
4-Feb 23-14 .622 +830
11-Feb 22-21 .512 -5
18-Feb 6-12 .333 -660
11 winning weeks, 5 losing weeks, +3565 total
TOTAL NET RESULTS
5-Nov +2554
12-Nov -268
19-Nov -371
26-Nov +677
3-Dec +1141
10-Dec -99
17-Dec +624
24-Dec +1281
31-Dec -84
7-Jan -26
14-Jan +220
21-Jan +672
28-Jan +2289
4-Feb +2511
11-Feb +540
18-Feb -1350
11 winning weeks, 5 losing weeks, +10,311 total
COMMENT: So, are we slowing down? Well, last week was the worst week of all 16 weeks to date. (But it was also the shortest week.)
If you break the sixteen weeks into eight 2-week segments, this last two-week period was the worst of the eight.
If you break down the sixteen weeks into four 4-week segments, they don’t show a decline lately. In fact, this last segment was the strongest of the four
to 26-Nov +2592
to 24-Dec +2947
to 21-Jan +782
to 18-Feb +3990
Still, sitting at +103 units now (off a high of +125 units), with just over 1/3rd of the regular season left, instinct tells me that +130 units is a reasonable goal for the full regular season, and it would not surprise me at all if we fell back to +75-85 units for the full regular season when it was over. It does seem to me that the lines are getting harder and harder to beat -- and soon a strong effort from the underdogs will be (even) less reliable than it already is.