[Jay Edgar]

Good time for a break, I'd say.

MONEYLINE PLAYS (betting 1u on dogs; betting to win 1u on favorites)
Wedenesday, 2-7, -4.69u
(NJ, CHA, MEM, POR, DET, MIL, SAC, PHX, ATL)
YTD 208-364, +63.69u


SAME TEAMS ATS (1.05u to win 1.00u)
Wednesday, 2-7, -5.35u
YTD 305-257 (.543) +37.15u


POWER RATINGS OVER LAST TEN GAMES
1 CLE 71
2 DAL 66
3 DET 65
4 UTH 64
5 SAN 62
6 TOR 60
7 HOU 60
8 MIA 59
9 NOK 55
10 NY 54
11 LAX 53
12 MIN 51
13 SAC 51
14 POR 50
15 CHI 49
16 ORL 49
17 DEN 49
18 SEA 49
19 ATL 46
20 MEM 46
21 GS 45
22 IND 43
23 LAC 42
24 NJ 41
25 CHA 41
26 PHX 39
27 PHI 37
28 BOS 36
29 MIL 35
30 WAS 32


EDGAR LINES FOR 02.15.07
(favorite-spread/moneyline-dog)

HOU 3.2/140 over DAL
LAX 3.7/153 over CLE


STRIKE PRICES (5%-OFF MARKER)
(At this moneyline or better, team is a play both SU and ATS under 5%-ML-OFF method.)

DAL +166, HOU -118
CLE +183, LAX -129


20%-OFF MARKER
(This moneyline is now 20% away from Edgar ML. Results this far out have been subpar.)

DAL +336, HOU +153
CLE +383, LAX +140

[bigboydan]

What a bad slate of games we have for Thursday Jay.

[bside]

I happen to like both dogs, but after my last two days maybe thats a bad thing...

[Dark Horse]

I like both dogs as well. Early lean. Let's see where the lines go.

[onlooker]

The Cavs aren't the best road team in the league. But I do like them getting 5 to 6 points.

The Rockets, well it all depends on what team shows up.

Should be two strong dogs today.

[bside]

Well I guess there is some good news for the dogs today.


NBA

# 501 8:05pm Mavericks vs Rockets
Mavericks 92.11%
Rockets 7.89%
1064 Bets

# 503 10:35pm Cavaliers vs Lakers
Cavaliers 44.72%
Lakers 55.28%
644 Bets

[AC1318]

clevland has been playing like they are trying to make the road record the same as the home one

[bigboydan]

Guys, The Cavs just flat out choked last night against Utah. I'm fearful they might just do that again tonight.

[bside]

I feel the same way. I have my minimum play on them at +7 mainly because of how poor the Lakers have been playing.

[Dark Horse]

Line already up to 7.5.

Looking at 2Q angle:
LAL in L5 at home, most recent first: +3, +11, +4, +7, -2.
CLE in L5 on road, most recent first: -3, +4, -4, -16, -12.

Taking out highest and lowest, that gives:
LAL +14/3 = +4.67 for 2Q;
CLE -19/3 = -6.33 for 2Q;

Lakers bring a 11 pt edge (4.67+6.33) to 2Q. Just a thought.

[onlooker]

Guys, The Cavs just flat out choked last night against Utah. I'm fearful they might just do that again tonight.

If that's the case, then you should be fearful of betting any NBA team. Its a NBA standard.

[Jay Edgar]

Now you tell us . . .

He was talking about Wednesday, but it's no less true (or untrue) tonight:

Coach Isiah Thomas began the night with an ominous prediction and a furrowed brow. Ninety minutes before tip-off, he called this “the most difficult game to play,” because it was the last game before the All-Star Game break.

“There will be a lot of weird things happening in the league tonight,” Thomas said.

[bigboydan]

Here we go again guys. Houston better not blow this game down the stretch!

[DrSlamm]

and they do of course

[bigboydan]

and they do of course

I couldn't believe that B.S. Dr.Slamm. The Rockets led the whole game, till the last, and choked down the stretch.

Why in the world did they let Luther Head shoot those shots at the end.

[DrSlamm]

some sick shit

[Illusion]

Why in the world did they let Luther Head shoot those shots at the end.

I was wondering the same thing. Not only that, he took the shot way too quick and then they had to foul.

[onlooker]

Didnt see it, was at the NBA Jam session, but I was updating it the whole time and seen the choke down the stretch.

Its like Dallas teases us with a loss, and then they spoil it at the end by winning the game. Them motherf***ers.

[bside]

When the best player on your team can't shoot free throws down the stretch it makes it real tough to pull out a win late

[Jay Edgar]

Dallas did a really nice job collapsing on McGrady, and he kicked to the corner for the open 3. At that point there isn't much to do except shoot it. That's an endpoint for any offense, and with just 4 seconds (?) left the only other option from the corner is to try to kick it into the big fel. . . . . oh yeah -- he's not there.

Dallas is in a class by itself (with SA and PHX having dropped back to the pack). I'll try to run a report over the ASB but it's been clear all year that opposing the Mavs is a risky proposition. They just win the damn game too much.

(Parenthetically, those late foul shots actually gave me my nicest single win of the month. I had HOU slightly, but it was largely in the form of lots of HOU +3 and a little bit less of DAL -2.5 )

[Jay Edgar]

% TEAM ATS ML
17 HOU PUSH -100
16 CLE WIN 302
===========================

MONEYLINE PLAYS (betting 1u on dogs; betting to win 1u on favorites)
Thursday, 1-1, +2.02u
(HOU, CLE)
YTD 209-365, +65.71u


SAME TEAMS ATS (1.05u to win 1.00u)
Wednesday, 1-0-1, +1.00u
YTD 308-257 (.545) +38.15u

[Dark Horse]

I hit the number as well on that game.

Not sure if I'd agree on PHX having dropped back to the pack. These Nashless(/Diawless) scores aren't representative, and have the obvious risk of offsetting future calculations if included in the record. It's scary to see Nash's impact when he's out.

[Jay Edgar]

DH -

Obviously agree that Nash makes a big difference (and Diaw helps, too).

But I would say that even before he went out they were showing some signs of being not quite in Dallas's class as a betting opponent. Even while Nash was still there they had drifted somewhat (somewhat) in the gamescores they were getting from me. They were still elite of course, but to me at least only DAL seemed quasi-suicidal to oppose in the days before Nash's injury.

The bigger question going forward, though is: when he returns, does Nash still get 35.3 mpg? Or does the coach cut his minutes where he can for the greater good? (From an ATS standpoint this question could be huge, as a "just enough to win" approach with personnel may translate to the scoreboard as well.)

[Dark Horse]

The Nash minutes are definitely important, because if he plays less Banks plays more. Nash plays the first 9 or 10 minutes, then returns with 8 minutes left in half. Just check the Suns wins/losses in the 6 minute span when he's off the floor.