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Pacers -1 to cool off Heat for first season win as home chalk
Pacers -1 to cool off Heat for first season win as home chalk
Friday, October 30, 2009
By: "Reload" Joe Freda | reload.mysbrforum.com
The Heat opened their season with a big win over the Knicks on Wednesday, but Miami will not find the Pacers to be the gracious hosts tonight at Conseco Fieldhouse.
On Wednesday the Miami Heat and Indiana Pacers started their seasons in opposite directions as the Heat crushed the Knicks at 115-93 home and the Pacers lost 120-109 in Atlanta to the Hawks. Tonight, it’s more action within the East as both face each other at Conseco Fieldhouse where the Heat have not won since 2001. The home court should be big for the Pacers tonight and this handicapper looks for them to get their first win of the season.
As un-exciting as the East can seem to fans during some years, the Heat and Pacers both put up some serious points in their opening matchups for the season. With a total of 210 set by the bookmakers for this tip off tonight, you can expect some more points on the board from both squads. But with that number so high, you never know what could happen down the stretch and I would rather look to back the side with the most value instead.
It was an easy victory for the Heat on Wednesday as guard Dwayne Wade led them with 26 points and center Jermaine O’Neal had an impressive double-double piling in 22 points and 12 rebounds. But we all know that any roster can look strong against a watered-down Knicks team – especially when you get to open the season at home. It should be more difficult tonight for Miami to repeat their 57% shooting, including 47% from beyond the arch, when traveling on the road for the first time this season.
The Pacers shot well in their opening night defeat on Wednesday draining 53% from the field in Atlanta, but the Hawks just about equaled that effort and it was 25 turnovers by Indiana which cost them a loss. I feel Indiana will be more focused at home and that the Heat will actually have more turnovers tonight then them. This should set up a victory for the Pacers as long as their shooting stays hot.
Forward Danny Granger put in 31 points for the Pacers on Wednesday including five three point shots. Supplementing his effort, Troy Murphy pulled in 10 rebounds and made a couple three pointers of his own to notch a double-double. It should be another explosive effort tonight from these two and I could see the Pacers winning by a big margin tonight as long as they can learn from the turnover mistakes on Wednesday which I feel should improve in front of the home crowd.
The Pacers bench also started the season off solid and could also give the Heat some problems down the stretch tonight. Guards Earl Watson and Dahntay Jones outscored most of the starters with 20 and 17 points, respectively. Watson was perfect from three point range and Jones went 9 for 9 from the free throw line. Shooting like this should provide some good insurance for Indiana should they have the lead going into the fourth quarter tonight and I feel they will.
Pinnacle Sports and Bookmaker both opened the line on tonight’s game favoring the Pacers by 1½ points and after some early fluctuation, Indiana is now favored by only one point at most sportsbooks. I feel laying only a point here is a bargain considering the home court advantage the Pacers have had in this series over the years, as well as how good the offense looks so far this year.
Like any sport, sometimes there is too much over-emphasis and exaggeration over the first game a team plays. A good example was how the San Antonio Spurs looked they would destroy every team this season when they made their debut on Wednesday crushing the New Orleans Hornets, but just one night later they get out-rebounded and out-hustled by the Bulls in Chicago bringing everyone back to reality. Look for all of the turned heads for the Heat from Wednesday to turn the other way tonight, and for Pacers tickets to cash.
A late night underdog worth a look
A couple of entertaining games end off the NBA slate on Friday with the Golden State Warriors visiting the Phoenix Suns and an ESPN broadcast comes from LA when the Lakers host the Dallas Mavericks. While some Friday night television action should be good to watch, I feel the game not being nationally televised is the one worth putting some money on.
The Warriors dropped a close game at home on Wednesday to the Houston Rockets losing to them 108-107. Although a beaten favorite that night, Golden State still looks to be bringing some pretty good shooting to the court this season and are worth another chance tonight –especially against an opponent like Phoenix. You can count on both teams putting up all-star game like numbers on the scoreboard in this one tonight and that either team winning by an 8 point margin will be easier said than done.
The Suns squeaked out a win in LA against the Clippers on Wednesday 109-107 thanks to a fourth quarter that got them the victory. Although Steve Nash put in his consistent effort, the bench of Phoenix looks weak this year and in these high scoring games that can be ironman marathons, without depth I would not want to be laying 8 points with the hope of holding on for a cover.
With the Warriors having Corey Maggette putting in double figures from the bench on Wednesday and bench forward Kelenna Azubuike consecutively averaging more points per game in each season, this should give Golden State some more ammunition in the second half than the Suns will have. I also look for the three pointers and free throw shooting to improve for Golden State tonight compared to Wednesday as just a few more of those shots going in against Houston would have resulted in a win there.
The line for this matchup opened yesterday at Bookmaker favoring the Suns by 7½ points and went up to 8 shortly after. This number should get some good two-way action but I feel the number is just by nature too high. With a big total, there should be many Suns-Over parlay tickets being written tonight. Bookmakers know that putting totals on these kinds of games are one of the few things they fear, so jacking up the favorite and hoping they do not cover is all they can really do to improve their chances of not being dented badly heading into the weekend. Take the points with the undervalued Warriors here.
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Heat are in letdown spot arent they.
Originally Posted by lakerboy
