[Dark Horse]

3Q numbers:

L7 home games DET, most recent first: +8, +9, +2, +6, +7, +5, -10. (6-1 ATS).

L7 road games SA, most recent first: -2, -5, -11, -6, -5, -10, -2.

Each quarter has its own character. The 3Q reflects the energy and determination out of the break, as well as the ability to make adjustments.

SA played strong 3Q's until half January. After that, downhill. This suggests a tiring team, not able to come out crisp for 2H. DET has been going in the opposite direction. Since Billups returned and Webber was added they look crisper all the time.

Recent reference. In SA's last statement game, Sunday at MIA, they were up at the half, but collapsed in 2H.

Play: DET 3Q -0.5

Prefer this over 2H play, because DET can open the backdoor pretty wide.

GL

[bigboydan]

I have no idea what to think about this matchup at all DH. I will be passing on this game needless to say.

[Jay Edgar]

Like DET and like this analysis, DH.

Would you consider making half the play pre-game and saving the rest for halftime to see what's what? The -0.5 presumes that DET is up a bucket or so at the half, and it could be very different one way or another (and of course the line will be different, too.)

[Dark Horse]

I was thinking about taking DET 1H. That way, if they go into halftime with a huge lead, the 3Q angle is hedged.

But I don't really see DET doing that, so may just play it this way. lol

[wrongturn]

Good analysis. SA is playing back to back road game. So they must be real tired.

[gummo]

SA up 17 at the half. This could be a good setup for a big 3rd for Detroit.

[Dark Horse]

They just squeezed out the 1/2 pt winner.

No complaints.

[wrongturn]

Not big 3Q but I will take it.