[Jay Edgar]

MONEYLINE PLAYS (betting 1u on dogs; betting to win 1u on favorites)
Saturday, 0-6, -6.45u
(TOR, ORL, MEM, MIL, CHA, NY)
YTD 201-347, +68.71u

SAME TEAMS ATS (1.05u to win 1.00u)
Saturday, 2-4, -2.20u
YTD 297-243 (.550) +41.85u


POWER RATINGS OVER LAST TEN GAMES)
1 CLE 66
2 DET 66
3 DAL 64
4 TOR 61
5 SAC 59
6 UTH 59
7 MIA 58
8 SAN 57
9 NY 56
10 MIN 53
11 NOK 53
12 LAX 53
13 PHX 53
14 CHI 52
15 LAC 50
16 POR 47
17 NJ 47
18 ORL 47
19 DEN 46
20 MEM 46
21 GS 46
22 PHI 45
23 ATL 43
24 SEA 39
25 IND 39
26 WAS 39
27 CHA 37
28 MIL 37
29 HOU 31
30 BOS 29

EDGAR LINES FOR 02.11.07
(favorite-spread/moneyline-dog)

MIA 5.5/192 over SAN

WAS 1.8/116 over POR

IND 2.9/135 over LAC

CLE 5.8/203 over LAX

MIN 5.9/207 over BOS

DAL 1.5/109 over PHI

PHX 3.7/151 over CHI

GS 4.7/172 over ATL

SAC 6.5/245 over SEA

STRIKE PRICES (5%-OFF MARKER)
(At this moneyline or better, team is a play both SU and ATS under 5%-ML-OFF method.)

SAN +232, MIA -160

POR +138, WAS +102

LAC +161, IND -114

LAX +248, CLE -169

BOS +253, MIN -172

DAL+109, PHI +129

CHI +181, PHX -127

ATL +207, GS -144

SEA +304, SAC -202


20%-OFF MARKER
(This moneyline is now 20% away from Edgar ML. Results this far out have been subpar.)

SAN +545, MIA +113

POR +264, WAS +186

LAC +322, IND +158

LAX +606, CLE +107

BOS +628, MIN +106

DAL+200, PHI +244

CHI +375, PHX +142

ATL +455, GS +125

SEA +884, SEA -109

[bigboydan]

Interesting slate of games for Sunday we have Jay.

[Jay Edgar]

Numbers complete for Sunday.

(Proofreading all past performance numbers has resulted in several very minor tweaks from what was posted earlier.)

GL

[onlooker]

Sounds good Jay. Good luck tomorrow.

[bigboydan]

Any changes in the numbers in that Wizards game due to the suspensions Jay?

[onlooker]

Any changes in the numbers in that Wizards game due to the suspensions Jay?

I think he has said before that his numbers dont adjust for injuries/suspended players.

[bside]

Not to speak for Jay, but I asked this question in relation to injuries and his response was basically he felt it had little impact especially for the first game or two. I would think suspensions would fall in this range. It is interesting to me that Was is -7 in that position though. This game falls into the 20% off category so not sure how I am going to deal with it yet.

[Jay Edgar]

Thanks for the discussion in the thread, guys. I like that.

You've got it right -- the numbers that I create can't and don't change based on personnel. They derive entirely from past performances (team past performance in last ten games, team past performance at this home/road venue, and league past performance with this amount of rest since the last game). I don't have a historical sample of no-Nash games to estimate how much no Nash changes their abilities. (Unless of couse the no-Nash sample is the last 5 games, in which case his absence is then built into the ratings.)

But as for when there is a brand new injury or suspension:
if you think that today's lineup is really critically different from a team's past lineups, you can treat the ratings as unreliable and act accordingly. But I will say that in my opinion the market thoroughly factors -- in fact overfactors -- injuries into the line. Thus you get more than fair value for this missing player if you stick with the play on his team.

[bigboydan]

I think he has said before that his numbers dont adjust for injuries/suspended players.

Thats what I thought, but I wanted to double check was all looker.

2 key suspensions is what scared me in that Wizards game, because it really leaves them thin in the front court.

[DrSlamm]

well that is probably one of the worst first halves the wizards have had this year

[bigboydan]

That was pretty bad Dr.Slamm.

Like I said above though. I was fearful of that thin front court of the Wizards in this game.

[bigboydan]

well that is probably one of the worst first halves the wizards have had this year

We both thought the first half was bad. However, checkout how bad there playing in the 2nd half

[AC1318]

aside from the suspension and injury in washington
portland has owned washington at home since first meeting
+7 was a gift
also arenas running his teeth about gonna blowout portland and score 50 while doing it
bit him in the ass

[Jay Edgar]

%OFF TEAM ATS ML
8 CLE WIN 100
8 LAC LOSS -100
9 BOS WIN -100
10 CHI WIN 227
18 POR WIN 250
20 MIA WIN 113
22 PHI LOSS -100


MONEYLINE PLAYS (betting 1u on dogs; betting to win 1u on favorites)
Sunday, 4-3, +3.90u
(MIA, POR, LAC, CLE, BOS, PHI, CHI)
YTD 205-350, +72.61u

SAME TEAMS ATS (1.05u to win 1.00u)
Sunday, 5-2, +2.90u
YTD 302-245 (.552) +44.75u

[wrongturn]

Should ML be 4-3?

[Jay Edgar]

Should ML be 4-3?

Thanks.
Somehow I had the Cavs listed as a loss originally.
Now corrected.