[jmathes]

Oklahoma City +7

[Mendozaaaa]

What's your reasoning behind it dude? I'm just curious.

[jmathes]

What's your reasoning behind it dude? I'm just curious.

San Antonio will probably not take this game seriously and Oklahoma City has done well against them. Good luck!

[Mendozaaaa]

Thanks! Good luck tonight

[Ca$hfloW]

It's played at a neutral site in Austin I don't know how SA is going to play but I wouldn't make a wager on this game

[jmathes]

[COLOR=#000000 ! important]
RESULTS FROM 10/20

Oklahoma City +7 LOSS




I will not offer extensive write-ups this year but will throw some advice or stats out there that may help gain your confidence. I should not have touched the preseason bet the other night but that is ok because I will still finish off the season at 60+%. This year since I am in a few handicapping contests so I will keep everything short and sweet. Good luck all!

The Lakers are 5-2 at home over the last 7 games when playing the Clippers and most importantly are defending their NBA Championship. As I am typing this I see that Blake Griffin will be out atleast 6 weeks with a stress fracture... That means less depth on the Clipper bench. Look for Lakers to come out of the gates winning this game by 15+ points. I am also going to go with another favorite for opening day because I believe the Cavs are a hot ticket when it comes to home games. We all know how well they have done the last couple of years playing at home and I feel this success will continue. They are playing a very tough first home game but Shaq and Lebron will live up to the hype in this season opener beating the Celtics. The Cavs are 5-0 ATS at home when playing the Celtics. Home crowd and momentum will be huge for Cleveland so a 1st half play could be very profitable.





OPENING DAY PICKS 10/27

LA LAKERS -9.5

CLEVELAND -4
[/COLOR]

[jmathes]

everyone tread lightly until we can see what this year will bring. give me 2-3 weeks to collect data, see results, and then i can start pounding results. i am 0-3 so far but can guarantee you that this will not last long. bet small and i will let you guys know when its time to step it up. my rule for myself in the nba is the 1st 3 weeks are half unit and then i go to a full unit on 11/15. good luck guys and please remember its all about proper money management.


OPENING DAY PICKS 10/27

LA LAKERS -9.5 LOSS

CLEVELAND -4 LOSS



10/28 PICKS

ORLANDO -8.5

BOSTON -10

DETROIT -2.5

ATLANTA -8

MIAMI -5

[jmathes]

adding a play 2nd half. rarely do this but cleveland is struggling. could not pass up this opportunity!

TORONTO +9.5 2nd HALF

[jmathes]

nice easy sweep tonight and small card tomorrow with only 2 games. check back because i might drop a pick. if i had to take a lean on tonight's late games i like the nuggets at home -5 over the jazz. sure the jazz are a great team but we all remember how awful they were down the stretch last year. lets see if its a problem again this year. good luck all and always bet responsibly!!


10/28 PICKS

ORLANDO -8.5 WIN

BOSTON -10 WIN

DETROIT -2.5 WIN

ATLANTA -8 WIN

MIAMI -5 WIN

TORONTO +9.5 2nd HALF WIN


Overall Record

6-3 (66%)

[darkenergy]

Oh my.......wonderful night...congrats

[jmathes]

thanks for the props darkenergy!!! its always good to have a little fan support. if its not obvious yet i am not an attention whore, so with that being said i don't make to much fuss about my thread. im thinking about giving people a little writeup but not sure whether that would help. i know writeups attract you guys but that is alot to do for every bet that i make. i also am debating whether or not i should make 1 lock a day which is obviously my strongest pick, or go with my gut and pick multiple picks. i don't want to overwhelm people with too many picks like some cappers which then makes it difficult to follow. i will keep it as simple as possible but at the same time i dont want to pass up on nights that i go 7-0 like last night (6-0 on this thread and the nugget pick was in the best bet thread 7-0 total). let me know what you guys think? im weighing towards making my selections and maybe giving everyone my lock play???

small card tonight but lets dance. teams im liking early are the spurs and celtics. i feel they will have alot of ats success early but may crumble later in the season due to age and fatigue. the money has been on the bulls pulling this line down but feel the spurs position for position have to much depth. the only thing that scares me is the athleticism of the bulls and the fact this is a back to back game for the spurs. some time san antonio tends to wear out. not only back to back but home to away, but i think the bulls start off rusty and the experience of the spurs makes them a great winner. the selling point for me is the fact that the spurs have all their stars healthy, which could be trouble for the rest of the league. one last note before i leave: fade the cavs! they are god awful and shaq is not the answer. good luck and sorry for the terrible writeup. did it in about 2 minutes...maybe better next time.



10/29 PICKS

SAN ANTONIO -3

[darkenergy]

Thanks for the write up, I enjoyed .
Few people that I following doesn't provide write up but their picks hitting at the arlarming rate .....Ragiche and T4_ever are among them.
I've seen you around this room last NBA season.

I'm on SA -2.5, UNDER 193, Canucks/King 1period OVER 1.5.....and waiting for my teaser to be cashed (Laker -5 Won + Orlando -2 Won + Virginia Tech -7.5 pendding).
GL today Jmathes......and keep them coming.

[darkenergy]

Just curious....how do you come up with "the money has been on the bulls pulling this line down".....I saw 75% and 78% on Spurs spread and ML respectively.....the line drop to -2.5 from -4. Which site do you use for consensus?
Thanks

[jmathes]

10/29 PICKS

SAN ANTONIO -3 LOSS



10/30 PICKS

WASHINGTON +6.5

CHICAGO +12

MINNESOTA +13

UTAH -8

MIAMI & INDIANA UNDER 213.5




Overall Record

6-4 (60%)

[jmathes]

10/30 PICKS

WASHINGTON +6.5 LOSS

CHICAGO +12 LOSS

MINNESOTA +13 LOSS

UTAH -8 WIN

MIAMI & INDIANA UNDER 213.5 WIN



10/31 PICKS

WASHINGTON -6

DETROIT +2

Overall Record

8-7 (53%)

[jmathes]

10/31 PICKS

WASHINGTON -6 WIN

DETROIT +2LOSS



11/2 PICKS

BOSTON -10

DENVER -10



Overall Record

9-8 (52%)

[lvmike32]

J, I monitor about 5 forums looking for sharp folks to tail. I believe you should bet 1% to 4% of bankroll on any one game - with 1% and 2% plays being by far the most common. Personally I don't really need write ups - a weekly analysis of what you feel is going on with the league and your picks is nice - something to show your "sharp". As far as plays, post what you are playing - if you like a game the best, simply weight it heavier. I live in Las Vegas and know some pro's here and ALL of them weight their plays per the above 1% to 4% guidelines. You seem pretty sharp and I'll be looking into your thread. GL this year.

[jmathes]

J, I monitor about 5 forums looking for sharp folks to tail. I believe you should bet 1% to 4% of bankroll on any one game - with 1% and 2% plays being by far the most common. Personally I don't really need write ups - a weekly analysis of what you feel is going on with the league and your picks is nice - something to show your "sharp". As far as plays, post what you are playing - if you like a game the best, simply weight it heavier. I live in Las Vegas and know some pro's here and ALL of them weight their plays per the above 1% to 4% guidelines. You seem pretty sharp and I'll be looking into your thread. GL this year.

thanks buddy, i will take what you said into consideration. however, i do not believe in units or locks. for example, alot of top handicappers around were all over the new york giants yesterday including myself. the giants on paper are a much better team but got destroyed by philly yesterday. most touts were releasing this game as a play of the week or 5 unit play.... alot of people lost alot of money yesterday on this game. i have had great success flat betting every single game in hopes that i accomplish about 60%. i might try incorporating a lock here and there and keeping track of it to see how it may pan out. thanks again and the best of luck to you!

[jmathes]

11/1 PICKS

BOSTON -10 PUSH

DENVER -10 PUSH


11/2 PICKS

NEW ORLEANS -1.5

UTAH -7



Overall Record

9-8-2 (52%)

[lvmike32]

J, agree with you completely with locks, etc. I follow Fezzik and some other pros and they all weight their plays. Flat betting is best but Fezzik says he's never seen anyone who can consistently hit over 55% against WA numbers - 60% is possible against CBB and CF opening totals - all in his opinion and I subscribe. While anyone can have a hot season, if you're hitting 54% against WA you are a top 5% capper. But I hope you're the exception and can hit 60% and I tail you LOL - you never know. but if you do, you honestly should be a pretty wealthy man. but I respect the lack of weights - just giving what I Know folks who do it for a living here in LV do. Money mgt is the key to it all. I know Sharps here are having their worst run in CF/NFL since 2005 - getting clobbered. Again, GL and look forward to following you.

[jmathes]

Ok, so I will try doing a lock pick which will probably be very limited this year and mainly for tracking. I estimate that I'll have about 30-40 locks this year.


My first lock is on the Washington Wizards +11 points.



11/2 PICKS

NEW ORLEANS -1.5 LOSS

UTAH -7 LOSS



11/3 PICKS

PHOENIX & MIAMI UNDER 217

OKLAHOMA CITY +8

DALLAS -4.5

BOSTON -6

WASHINGTON +11





Overall Record

9-10-2 (47%)

[jmathes]

Nice 4-1 night last night and really felt as if I should have gone 5-0. The Wizards blew a 31-17 pt lead and allowed the Cavs to outscore them 85 to 59 points in the last 3 quarters. Tonight I feel like I have a decent card but looking at 3 totals here. Normally I don't like totals but I feel there is alot of potential here. Seems like all the lines were pretty tight so I will concentrate elsewhere. Although I really like the way the Celtics are Nuggets are destroying their opponents, I couldn't justifying them winning by double digits on no days rest. My leans on the 2 were Boston -10 and New Jersey +10 against the Denver. I had the under 202 between the Lakers and Rockets on my slate but scratched it last minute. The last 4 meetings between the 2 have gone under but feel that the Rockets pace is much more aggressive this year.

Out of all the picks on board today I like the Pistons +5 for the 1st half. Don't know what the linesmakers are thinking but giving the Raptors 10 on the game is a little too many! The Pistons have been known to shut down in the 2nd half so I really like them for the 1st half. Yeah theyre coming off no rest but theyre also coming off a big win against a tough Magic team.



11/3 PICKS

PHOENIX & MIAMI UNDER 217 WIN

OKLAHOMA CITY +8 WIN

DALLAS -4.5 WIN

BOSTON -6 WIN

WASHINGTON +11.5 LOSS



11/4 PICKS


DETROIT +5 1ST HALF

MIAMI & WASHINGTON UNDER 194

NEW YORK -4.5

BOSTON & MINNESOTA UNDER 187.5

MEMPHIS & GOLDEN STATE OVER 225.5





Overall Record

13-11-2 (54%)

[jmathes]

11/4 PICKS


DETROIT +5 1ST HALF LOSS

MIAMI & WASHINGTON UNDER 194 WIN

NEW YORK -4.5 LOSS

BOSTON & MINNESOTA UNDER 187.5 WIN

MEMPHIS & GOLDEN STATE OVER 225.5 LOSS


11/5 PICKS


NO PICKS TODAY




Overall Record

15-13-2 (53%)

[jmathes]

11/6 PICKS


CLEVELAND -7.5

ATLANTA -2

PHILLY -12

DENVER +1

PORTLAND -3.5



Overall Record

15-13-2 (53%)

[jmathes]

11/6 PICKS

CLEVELAND -7.5 WIN

ATLANTA -2 LOSS

PHILLY -12 LOSS

DENVER +1 LOSS

PORTLAND -3.5 WIN




11/7 PICKS

DENVER +3

UTAH -15





Overall Record

17-16-2 (51%)

[jmathes]

11/7 PICKS

DENVER +3 LOSS

UTAH -15 LOSS





11/8 PICKS

PHOENIX SUNS PICK

LA LAKERS -6.5





Overall Record

17-18-2 (48%)

[jmathes]

11/8 PICKS

PHOENIX SUNS PICK WIN

LA LAKERS -6.5 WIN





11/9 PICKS

PHOENIX +1

SAN ANTONIO -6





Overall Record

19-18-2 (51%)

[jmathes]

11/9 PICKS

PHOENIX +1 WIN

SAN ANTONIO -6 WIN





11/10 PICKS

DENVER & CHICAGO OVER 204

OKLAHOMA CITY -1

MIAMI -6



Overall Record

21-18-2 (55%)

[jmathes]

11/10 PICKS

DENVER & CHICAGO OVER 204 LOSS

OKLAHOMA CITY -1 LOSS

MIAMI -6 WIN





11/11 PICKS



DENVER -3.5

HOUSTON -8

MEMPHIS & HOUSTON OVER 214

PHOENIX -6

OKLAHOMA CITY +2.5





Overall Record

22-20-2 (52%)

[jmathes]

11/11 PICKS



DENVER -3.5 LOSS

HOUSTON -8 WIN

MEMPHIS & HOUSTON OVER 214 LOSS

PHOENIX -6 WIN

OKLAHOMA CITY +2.5 WIN





11/12 PICKS

PHOENIX +8

CLEVELAND -1



Overall Record

25-22-2 (53%)

[jmathes]

11/12 PICKS

PHOENIX +8 LOSS

CLEVELAND -1 WIN





11/13 PICKS

DALLAS & MINNESOTA OVER 195

HOUSTON -4

BOSTON -8.5



Overall Record

26-23-2 (53%)

[jmathes]

11/13 PICKS

DALLAS & MINNESOTA OVER 195 LOSS

HOUSTON -4 LOSS

BOSTON -8.5 LOSS






11/14 PICKS

ATLANTA -9

DETROIT +5

OKLAHOMA CITY +8

NEW JERSEY & MIAMI UNDER 180





Overall Record

26-26-2 (50%)

[jmathes]

11/14 PICKS

ATLANTA -9 WIN

DETROIT +5 WIN

OKLAHOMA CITY +8 WIN

NEW JERSEY & MIAMI UNDER 180 WIN






11/16 PICKS

AUBURN -4 (NCAA)

ATLANTA -3

ORLANDO -12

DALLAS & MILWAUKEE OVER 191





Overall Record

30-26-2 (53%)

[superduperjacob]

Good job on Saturday - BOL tonight!

[jmathes]

11/16 PICKS

AUBURN -4 (NCAA) LOSS

ATLANTA -3 WIN

ORLANDO -12 LOSS

DALLAS & MILWAUKEE OVER 191 WIN






11/17 PICKS

NCAA

LOUISVILLE -9.5

DUQUESNE -1

MICHIGAN STATE -10.5


NBA

INDIANA & JEW JERSEY UNDER 188.5

CHICAGO +1.5

LA CLIPPERS +2



Overall Record

32-28-2 (53%)