1. #1
    Jay Edgar
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    Jay Edgar NBA, Wednesday 01.31.07

    MONEYLINE PLAYS (betting 1u on dogs; betting to win 1u on favorites)
    Tuesday, 1-2, -1.00u
    (BOS, NY, SEA)
    YTD 177-306, +60.81u

    SAME TEAMS ATS (1.05u to win 1.00u)
    Tuesday, 2-1, +0.95u
    YTD 264-213 (.553), +40.35u

    POWER RATINGS OVER LAST TEN GAMES
    1 DAL 65
    2 HOU 64
    3 PHX 64
    4 CHI 60
    5 NJ 59
    6 NOK 57
    7 MIA 56
    8 DET 56
    9 IND 56
    10 WAS 55
    11 SAN 55
    12 NY 53
    13 UTH 52
    14 LAC 50
    15 DEN 50
    16 SAC 50
    17 MIN 50
    18 TOR 49
    19 GS 46
    20 LAX 44
    21 POR 44
    22 CLE 44
    23 CHA 44
    24 PHI 42
    25 ATL 42
    26 SEA 41
    27 MEM 41
    28 ORL 39
    29 MIL 38
    30 BOS 35


    EDGAR LINES FOR 01.31.07
    (favorite-spread/moneyline-dog)

    TOR 3.3/142 over WAS

    ATL 5.1/180 over GS

    ORL 4.6/169 over MIL

    CHA 4.6/169 over NY

    NJ 6.2/230 over DET

    BOS 0.6/105 over LAX

    NOK 5.5/189 over PHI

    MEM 1.7/116 over DAL

    HOU 7.3/285 over SEA

    MIN 3.5/145 over SAC

    UTH 3.3/141 over SAN

    POR 3.2/141 over DEN

    LAC 3.5/144 over CHI

    STRIKE PRICES (5%-OFF MARKER)
    (At this moneyline or better, team is a play both SU and ATS under 5%-ML-OFF method.)

    WAS +170, TOR -120

    GS +217, ATL -150

    MIL +203, ORL -142

    NY +203, CHA -142

    DET +283, NJ -190

    LAX +124, BOS +113

    PHI +229, NOK -158

    DAL +137, MEM +102

    SEA +359, HOU -231

    SAC +174, MIN -123

    SA +169, UTH -119

    DEN +168, POR -119

    CHI +171, LAC -121


    20%-OFF MARKER
    (This moneyline is now 20% away from Edgar ML. Results this far out have been subpar.)

    WAS +345, TOR +150

    GS +491, ATL +120

    MIL +444, ORL +127

    NY +445, CHA +127

    DET +767, NJ -104

    LAX +232, BOS +210

    PHI +535, NOK +114

    DAL +263, MEM +187

    SEA +1290, HOU -123

    SAC +356, MIN +147

    SAN +342, UTH +151

    DEN +340, POR +152

    CHI +350, LAC +149
    Last edited by Jay Edgar; 01-30-07 at 10:30 PM.

  2. #2
    Jay Edgar
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    Numbers complete for big card Wednesday.

    GL

  3. #3
    Jay Edgar
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    Get ready for some line-movement fireworks in the PHI-NOK game:

    ===

    Chris Paul still had a head of hair at this morning's shootaround, which could say everything about his status for tonight's game against the Sixers or could say nothing at all.

    Paul is letting his hair grow until he returns to the lineup. He still has plenty of time to get a haircut before tonight's game. A few games ago Tyson Chandler was getting a haircut inside the Ford Center about an hour before the game.

    It's no telling whether Paul plays tonight. After talking to the folks at shootaround this morning I left feeling that there's a 51 percent chance that he will play and 49 percent chance of him sitting out.

    Instead of just committing to a decision, everybody involved is taking a wait-and-see approach. Chris says he doesn't know. Byron Scott says he would prefer for him to have one more practice but "isn't ruling him in or out" of tonight's game. Chandler said he doesn't think he'll play because he's only had one practice. Team trainer Terry Kofler wouldn't say anything.

    Before the shootaround began this morning, Paul said he didn't feel any pain in his right ankle, which he sprained over a month ago. He said after returning to practice Tuesday that he doesn't have any soreness in the foot a day later and feels good.

    "I still don't know. It'll be probably 7 o'clock before I know if I can play," Paul said. "This won't be only my decision. It will be my decision, coach and the trainers."

    Scott, however, says the final decision rests with Paul.

    "If he says tonight that I'm ready to go, then it just (depends on) his tone of voice," Scott said. "Basically it comes down to, do I really believe him? Last year when he got hurt, he said (he was ready to come back) with such conviction that I knew he was ready. He has to convince me that way. Yesterday and this morning he said he feels good. But it wasn't as convincing as it was last year.

    "But obviously the final choice is his. I've already stated what I would like to do as far as getting one more practice in. I don't think that's going to hurt him at all. I think it's just going to help him. I know how competitive he is. I know how much he wants to play. But sometimes you got to sit back and kind of let nature take it's course."

  4. #4
    bigboydan
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    Lots of line movement in the pros tonight I noticed Jay. It looks like kinda of a chalky night to me.

  5. #5
    Jay Edgar
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    Yeah.

    FWIW, I passed on MIL and am passing on MEM. Both are 20%+ and I just think neither has any shot at all.

    ==
    check that, MIL was 17% at close
    Last edited by Jay Edgar; 01-31-07 at 08:16 PM.

  6. #6
    Jay Edgar
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    Chris Paul is in, according to the Oklahoman.

  7. #7
    Jay Edgar
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    Night got better as it went along for the method.

    GAP TEAM ATS ML
    6 SAC WIN 178
    6 WAS LOSS -100
    6 PHI WIN 243
    10 SEA PUSH -100
    11 ATL WIN 100
    16 POR WIN 130
    16 MIL LOSS -100
    19 NJ LOSS -107
    24 BOS LOSS -100
    25 UTH WIN 187
    26 MEM WIN -100

    ==========================

    MONEYLINE PLAYS (betting 1u on dogs; betting to win 1u on favorites)
    Wednesday, 5-6, +2.31u
    (WAS, ATL, MIL, NJ, BOS, PHI, MEM, SEA, SAC, UTH, POR)
    YTD 182-312, +63.12u

    SAME TEAMS ATS (1.05u to win 1.00u)
    Wednesday, 6-4-1, +1.80u
    YTD 270-217 (.554), +42.15u


    ================================
    RESULTS FOR MONTH OF JANUARY

    MONEYLINE PLAYS

    5%-19% OFF
    51-80, +25.94u

    20%+ OFF
    13-37, -0.57u

    ALL PLAYS
    64-117, +25.42u

    POINTSPREAD PLAYS

    5%-19% OFF
    80-48 (.625) +29.60u

    20%+ OFF
    23-26 (.469) -4.30u

    ALL PLAYS
    103-74 (.582) +25.30u


    A great month.

    I'd be surprised (pleasantly!!) if the method kept up that kind of pace.

    New in January:
    ATS plays did as well as ML plays

    Continuing in January:
    The 20%+ plays struggled some more.

    ==============================

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