1. #1
    Jay Edgar
    Jay Edgar's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-08-06
    Posts: 1,576

    Jay Edgar NBA, Sunday 01.28.07

    MONEYLINE PLAYS (betting 1u on dogs; betting to win 1u on favorites)
    Saturday, 3-4, +2.00u
    (TOR, PHI, NOK, SAC, MIA, NJ, CHA)
    YTD 172-298, +57.05u

    SAME TEAMS ATS (1.05u to win 1.00u)
    Saturday, 5-2, +2.90u
    YTD 257-207 (.554), +39.65u

    POWER RATINGS OVER LAST 10 GAMES
    1 PHX 68
    2 DAL 66
    3 HOU 61
    4 CHI 60
    5 NJ 58
    6 IND 57
    7 DEN 56
    8 NY 56
    9 NOK 55
    10 SAN 55
    11 MIA 54
    12 DET 54
    13 UTH 53
    14 WAS 51
    15 SAC 51
    16 SEA 50
    17 TOR 49
    18 GS 49
    19 LAC 47
    20 LAX 46
    21 MIN 44
    22 ORL 43
    23 POR 43
    24 PHI 42
    25 CHA 42
    26 CLE 40
    27 MEM 40
    28 ATL 39
    29 BOS 35
    30 MIL 35


    EDGAR LINES FOR 01.28.07
    (favorite-spread/moneyline-dog)

    PHX 1.9/125 over CLE

    LAX 3.6/148 over SAN

    MIL 1.2/109 over NY

    WAS 2.0/127 over BOS

    DET 3.7/150 over IND

    SEA 5.5/189 over LAC

    STRIKE PRICES (5%-OFF MARKER)
    (At this moneyline or better, team is a play both SU and ATS under 5%-ML-OFF method.)

    PHX -106, CLE +149

    SAN +177, LAX -125

    NY +129, MIL +109

    WAS -107, BOS +151

    IND +179, DET -126

    LAC +229, SEA -158

    20%-OFF MARKER
    (This moneyline is now 20% away from Edgar ML. Results this far out have been subpar.)

    PHX +172, CLE +291

    SAN +364, LAX +145

    NY +243, MIL +201

    WAS +169, BOS +297

    IND +370, DET +143

    LAC +534, SEA +114
    Last edited by Jay Edgar; 01-28-07 at 12:42 AM.

  2. #2
    Jay Edgar
    Jay Edgar's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-08-06
    Posts: 1,576

    Sunday numbers complete.

    First tip is early -- 1:00pm EST.

    GL

  3. #3
    onlooker
    I'm still watching...
    onlooker's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 08-10-05
    Posts: 36,572
    Betpoints: 4315

    Looking good Jay. Thanks for all your work on this.


  4. #4
    Hulu
    Hulu's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-17-06
    Posts: 664
    Betpoints: 90

    Jay your system keeps on chugging along. After that brief scare of a few losing days, the last few days have been quite nice. Thanks again for the hard work on this.

  5. #5
    bside
    bside's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-25-06
    Posts: 363

    Nice day yesterday. I've been checking your system out and followed it yesterday. My only question is why wasn't Portland a play for you. I played them at +3.5 and +145 both which seemed to be indicated. Of course I am not complaining since they both won.

  6. #6
    bigboydan
    bigboydan's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-10-05
    Posts: 55,425

    Solid info as always Jay

    I'm rolling with the Cavs +6.5

  7. #7
    Jay Edgar
    Jay Edgar's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-08-06
    Posts: 1,576

    Quote Originally Posted by bside
    Nice day yesterday. I've been checking your system out and followed it yesterday. My only question is why wasn't Portland a play for you. I played them at +3.5 and +145 both which seemed to be indicated. Of course I am not complaining since they both won.
    Bside, I actually had a ML of -184 in that game for Memphis, so the Blazers only qualified at +222 or better and, I think, (though I was out to dinner and had to look it up) that the ML closed at 177/167.

    You can count one hand the POR games where they have not qualified as a play, but that was one of them.

    (I did just notice that I typed "+22" for the Blazers strike price rather than "+222" -- hope that wasn't too confusing.)

    Glad you had them, though.

  8. #8
    AC1318
    AC1318's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-09-06
    Posts: 6,712
    Betpoints: 60

    STRIKE PRICES (5%-OFF MARKER)
    (At this moneyline or better, team is a play both SU and ATS under 5%-ML-OFF method.)

    PHX -106, CLE +149

    SAN +177, LAX -125

    NY +129, MIL +109

    WAS -107, BOS +151

    IND +179, DET -126

    LAC +229, SEA -158

    should the SAN +177,LAX -125 be swapped team for price?

  9. #9
    Jay Edgar
    Jay Edgar's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-08-06
    Posts: 1,576

    Quote Originally Posted by AC1318
    should the SAN +177,LAX -125 be swapped team for price?

    Nope, that's right. My numbers like the Lakers a whole lot more than the market does -- I have it 60%-40% that Lakers win. So to play the Spurs you'd need an ML that says they have a 35% chance to win or less, which is +177 or better. To play the Lakers you'd need a line which says they have a 55% chance to win or less (-125 or better) -- and we'll surely get that. (The current moneyline gives them a 41% chance to win.)

  10. #10
    AC1318
    AC1318's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-09-06
    Posts: 6,712
    Betpoints: 60

    Quote Originally Posted by Jay Edgar
    Nope, that's right. My numbers like the Lakers a whole lot more than the market does -- I have it 60%-40% that Lakers win. So to play the Spurs you'd need an ML that says they have a 35% chance to win or less, which is +177 or better. To play the Lakers you'd need a line which says they have a 55% chance to win or less (-125 or better) -- and we'll surely get that. (The current moneyline gives them a 41% chance to win.)
    I know LA was way over 200

  11. #11
    bside
    bside's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-25-06
    Posts: 363

    Got it thanks. I had written down that +22 so thats probably why.
    Thanks for all the effort.

  12. #12
    Jay Edgar
    Jay Edgar's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-08-06
    Posts: 1,576

    GAP TEAM ATS ML
    11 CLE LOSS -100
    19 LAX WIN -100
    12 BOS LOSS -100
    16 IND LOSS -100
    11 SEA LOSS -125

    ===============

    MONEYLINE PLAYS (betting 1u on dogs; betting to win 1u on favorites)
    Sunday, 0-5, -5.25u
    (CLE, LAX, BOS, IND, SEA)
    YTD 172-303, +51.80u

    SAME TEAMS ATS (1.05u to win 1.00u)
    Sunday, 1-4, -3.20u
    YTD 258-211 (.550), +36.45u

  13. #13
    onlooker
    I'm still watching...
    onlooker's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 08-10-05
    Posts: 36,572
    Betpoints: 4315

    Jay. When was the last time the ML's went 0'fer for the day? Lakers played Nets today.

  14. #14
    Jay Edgar
    Jay Edgar's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-08-06
    Posts: 1,576

    Quote Originally Posted by onlòóker
    Jay. When was the last time the ML's went 0'fer for the day?
    It's been very streaky lately. Check out Jan 21 (0-4) and Jan 23 (0-6).

Top