1. #1
    RickJ
    RickJ's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-08-06
    Posts: 723
    Betpoints: 66

    Friday nba plays

    wedn we had an 0-3 day For -3.30 units. All games were close until the 4 th quarter but none of the 3 teams could hang on and cover.

    Also I had the rather unpleasant experience of someone messaging me on yahoo complaining. He was rather insulting. So....let me say a few things before I post the plays.

    1. This method I am using has been applied only over 364 bets. This is not conclusive to the long run profitablility of this method. Its encouraging but in no way a guarantee making money.

    2. If you lose money betting these plays if you need to blame someone for your loss the only one you have to blame is yourself. You elected to make these bets.

    3. If you dont have a good money management strategy in place you in all probability will lose all your money because of variance.

    4. So far the biggest drop has been around 5 units. That is consistent with a method that has a 13 percent return...So this is also encouraging....but..... at some point I would expect a 15 to 20 unit drawdown.....if you are betting an amount that this would cause you a problem....you are betting too much.

    and finally 5. There are very few people that are equipped financially and psychologically to handle the ups and downs of gambling on a daily basis. If your not a professional every instinct you have will attempt and probably will sabotage your success. Human nature runs completely contrary to being a successful professional gambler.

    If this discourages you from following these plays then I have accomplished what I have intended to accomplish. For those of you that understand all of the above...good luck!

    RickJ

    Only 1 play today in the nba that I can see...also looks like no plays again in the nfl this weekend. Also I am now on betcascade..so my plays are all -105. If your laying -110 you can expect about 2 percent less return.

    Washington/orlando under 205.5 -105


    Record to date:

    mlb
    Sides: 17- 14 +6.83
    o/u 3-8-1 -5.09
    ncaafb
    Sides 36-27-1 +9.14
    o/u 11-12 -1.63
    nfl
    Sides 26-9-1 +16.66
    o/u 7-4 +2.83
    nhl
    sides 28-26 +7.31
    Nba
    Side 54-47-1 +4.72
    o/u 19-10 +8.73

    Oct: 132 bets + 11.63 units +8.81% Return
    Nov: 105 bets + 25.19 units +24.0% Return
    Dec: 94 bets + 1.99 units +2.11% Return
    Jan: 33 bets + 8.52 units +25.82% Return
    Total 364 Bets + 47.33 units +13.00% Return

  2. #2
    trustbutverify
    trustbutverify's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-12-07
    Posts: 221

    Great post. Can you tell me anything about your methodology?

  3. #3
    RickJ
    RickJ's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-08-06
    Posts: 723
    Betpoints: 66

    methodology

    I use two neural net models...based upon different assumptions..and also a filtering process... the neural models
    alone wont do it

  4. #4
    bigboydan
    bigboydan's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-10-05
    Posts: 55,425

    Quote Originally Posted by RickJ

    Also I had the rather unpleasant experience of someone messaging me on yahoo complaining. He was rather insulting. So....let me say a few things before I post the plays.
    I can't believe somebody actually was that classless Rick. Sore losers need to stop blaming others for losing there own money.

  5. #5
    Hulu
    Hulu's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-17-06
    Posts: 664
    Betpoints: 90

    Rick just let me add that I don't always agree with your posted picks but they are always appreciated and the success you've had in the past few months cannot be dismissed. Anyone who could find fault with your results simply doesn't understand the nature of sports betting.

  6. #6
    trustbutverify
    trustbutverify's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-12-07
    Posts: 221

    Quote Originally Posted by Hulu
    Rick just let me add that I don't always agree with your posted picks but they are always appreciated and the success you've had in the past few months cannot be dismissed. Anyone who could find fault with your results simply doesn't understand the nature of sports betting.
    Ditto. Let me add that- when playing a system- the power is in the GROUP of bets as a whole. Of course there will always be what appears to be shaky individual bets- even to the designer of the system. That comes with the territory. The value is derived from the situation grinding out profit over the course of hundreds and thousands of bets. To take advantage of this value one must bet the class in its entirety.

Top