1. #1
    Reload
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    Indiana -2 catches championship fever and closes out Phoenix in Game 4

    Indiana -2 catches championship fever and closes out Phoenix in Game 4

    Wednesday, October 7, 2009

    By: "Reload" Joe Freda | reload.mysbrforum.com


    A close 86-85 win on Sunday gave a driver’s seat to the Indiana Fever in the WNBA Finals as they pulled ahead with a 2-1 series lead against the Phoenix Mercury.
    Game 4 might be a must-win for Phoenix tonight at Indiana’s Conseco Fieldhouse, but the Fever want no part of a Game 5 and will be firing at high temperatures to get a championship clinching win tonight.




    After Phoenix took Game 1 of the finals on their home floor last week with a 120-116 overtime thriller, quite a few fans thought the WNBA championship was as good as in the Mercury’s trophy case. The trio of Diana Taurasi, Cappie Pondexter, and Penny Taylor combined for over half of the home chalk’s points that night making it seem no opponent would be able to put them away in a series.

    However, the Fever battled back with a convincing 93-84 Game 2 victory and sent the series to Indiana tied 1-1 with home court advantage in the remaining three games. Indiana outrebounded the Mercury on that occasion 40-35 and shot 49% from the field including a near triple-double from Tamika Catchings.
    Game 3’s matchup for the series lead on Sunday came down to the wire as the Fever blew a commanding early lead to be down by 3 at the half. A big run in the third quarter by Indiana’s rookie guard Briann January had everyone thinking she was Miss October going 3 for 4 from beyond the arch that day. Anyone who watched the game knows that these were some clutch baskets that the Fever desperately needed giving them a three point lead going into the fourth quarter. The game then became a catfight from both teams as they clawed for every loose ball with Indiana holding on for a win at the final buzzer.

    It may seem easy to take the Mercury in Game 4 tonight for several reasons so they can even out the series and send it back to Phoenix for a deciding Game 5. Sunday was only the third time that Phoenix lost a second game in a row and with it such a close loss, they will be eager to get right back on the court again. The Mercury have not lost three in a row all season and getting a couple of points at the betting windows makes it that much juicier to take them if another close game should happen tonight. However, a couple of points as an underdog may not be enough in facing the Fever in an elimination game tonight that gives Indiana a chance to win their first championship on their home floor.

    I feel tonight is as much a must-win game for the Fever as it is for the Mercury. Traveling to Phoenix for a Game 5 on one day’s rest would clearly not be in any series leading team’s best interest and would put the championship in doubt after two emotional wins in a row. Although the Fever won Game 2 in Phoenix, it will be a tall order to have it happen again in a series deciding Game 5 in a spot that could have the Fever’s defense softer than usual. This should give Indiana a lot of focus tonight and the chance of having 18,000 home fans witness the winning of a championship instead of such uncertainty with what one more game in Phoenix would bring.

    Although I gave the depth edge in this series to Phoenix from the beginning with stars like Taylor and rookie DeWanna Bonner, Indiana has shown some of their own weapons can get the job done in crunch time down the stretch. A key jump shot from the Fever’s Ebony Hoffman with less than a minute to go in Game 3 and a block from her against the Mercury’s Tangela Smith in the closing seconds got the victory for Indiana. While it is usually Catchings and Katie Douglas getting the spotlight for the Fever, Hoffman’s effort was all about what it takes to win a game that will be looked back on as the close victory that could have gone either way.

    With Game 3 coming down to final seconds and Game 1 of the series going to overtime last week, some fans think we could be in for another close matchup tonight in Game 4. I disagree and actually think it will be the Fever’s biggest win in the series yet. The Mercury will have to come out with a lot of desperation tonight which is a position they are not use to being in and I feel it will cause them to be rattled a little here and there with some sloppier shooting and rebounding.




    Game 3 was kept close by Phoenix due to some pretty tough defense being played at times by them, as well as winning the battle for points in the paint for the first time in the series. But it was not enough to get a victory and the Fever held serve on their home court by taking three point outside shooting out of the equation for the Mercury. The Fever have been one of the top teams in the league at preventing three point shots all season and allowed none to go in from Phoenix in the entire second half of Game 3. Mercury backers tonight may feel that three point shooting is streaky and that more will just go in tonight for Phoenix, but it’s the Fever defense that’s actually coming up big here and should again.

    The line for tonight’s game opened at several sportsbooks favoring the Fever by 2 1/2 points. This is only a one point drop from Game 3’s closing line and some may think it should have dropped more given the “must win” mentality that Phoenix will bring tonight. I feel if the Fever had won by a bigger margin on Sunday, it would make me more hesitant to lay the short number with them but it was such a close game that it should make them feel just as much intensity tonight as the Mercury.
    Game 3 was all about grinding out the holding of a lead by Indiana and was not an emotionally draining storybook finish of somesort. The Fever know they were lucky to escape with that win despite some late questionable calls that gave Phoenix an extra possession or two than they should have had. For this reasoning, I feel you will see that much tighter of a Fever team tonight and with two days of rest at home they should be able to maintain the sharpness they have had.

    Lay the points with Indiana as they close out the championship tonight with an exclamation mark and the Conseco Fieldhouse thermometers have their highest degrees of temperature ever for a Fever victory.

  2. #2
    BL
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    I like it, I like it

  3. #3
    Reload
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    Quote Originally Posted by BL View Post
    I like it, I like it
    Thanks, BL! I think I will be in the minority tonight with this one but I am looking forward to seeing a big trophy celebration tonight.


  4. #4
    X-Rated
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    I wanted to take Phoenix +2 tonight but too much money is backing them, so guess I'll have to skip this play. GL guys.

  5. #5
    tullamore21
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    Diana owes herself a big game. PHX will celebrate the champioshim in Arizona. cannot say GL as i am against your pick.
    hope for a good game.

  6. #6
    Reload
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    Quote Originally Posted by X-Rated View Post
    I wanted to take Phoenix +2 tonight but too much money is backing them, so guess I'll have to skip this play. GL guys.
    No doubt Phoenix will get most of the action tonight, X-Rated. It is surprising the line has not move to +1 or even PK. Makes me think the books are wanting action there.

  7. #7
    Reload
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    Quote Originally Posted by tullamore21 View Post
    Diana owes herself a big game. PHX will celebrate the champioshim in Arizona. cannot say GL as i am against your pick.
    hope for a good game.
    I'd say the Mercury's success rests a lot on Taurasi tonight, tulla. She'll probably get some calls tonight also. I think the Fever have done well containing her though so we'll see what happens.

  8. #8
    X-Rated
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    Reload, I think the line for this game opens at 2, and the line for the previous game opened at 3. Does this tell us something or does it not matter.

  9. #9
    Reload
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    Quote Originally Posted by X-Rated View Post
    Reload, I think the line for this game opens at 2, and the line for the previous game opened at 3. Does this tell us something or does it not matter.
    It was definitely going to be lower for this game with Phoenix down 2-1 in the series. The same thing happens in the NBA playoffs really.

  10. #10
    SportsTerminator
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    It opened at 2.5

  11. #11
    tullamore21
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    Quote Originally Posted by Reload View Post
    I'd say the Mercury's success rests a lot on Taurasi tonight, tulla. She'll probably get some calls tonight also. I think the Fever have done well containing her though so we'll see what happens.

    Diana did not get as many calls as i thought till now, since the finals begun. I can almost say that the tough overplay on her is marginally in foul. She can play much better, not only assisting and rebounding, she might offered a good point average, but she did not perform the maximum she cans. I expect a huge performance tonight really.

    I know how risky it is to say but i am gonna pick the over 20,5 of her points except PHX ML.
    I hope she will do her best. Now its the game to show why she is MVP, no curses and staff like this, Diana can give us a solid performance.

    Anyway, my strong bet is her OVER 20,5 scoring.

  12. #12
    RoagBettor
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    The line was as low as 1.5 then back to 2. Phoenix was not going to be favored in this game no matter what. The line is right where it should be.

    The books don't care about the WNBA. Not even 1/1000th of 1% is bet on the WNBA as compared to the other sports. Plus, there is a lot of money on the under tonight which is where the books will clean up.

  13. #13
    tullamore21
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    diana you killed me again . no profit for mw tonight, o just took my bettin money back with the PHX ML

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