1. #1
    Jay Edgar
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    Jay Edgar NBA, Wednesday 01.18.07

    Good night Tuesday. Moneyline now doubles ATS profitability for YTD (this grouping includes everything at 5% or above, including the 20%+ plays) Grand total crosses the +70 unit mark.

    MONEYLINE PLAYS (at 1* each)
    Wednesday, 3-6, +3.70u
    (CHA, NY, MIL, ATL, PHI, HOU, LAX, POR, GS)
    YTD 150-254, +46.71u

    SAME TEAMS ATS (at 1* each)
    Wednesday, 5-4, +0.80u
    YTD 216-183 (.541), +23.90u

    POWER RATINGS OVER LAST TEN GAMES
    1 PHX 73
    2 DAL 67
    3 CHI 65
    4 ORL 62
    5 NJ 61
    6 HOU 59
    7 CLE 56
    8 SAN 55
    9 LAX 54
    10 TOR 54
    11 NY 53
    12 IND 52
    13 WAS 51
    14 MIN 51
    15 SAC 50
    16 NOK 49
    17 MIL 49
    18 MIA 48
    19 CHA 47
    20 UTH 46
    21 DEN 44
    22 DET 43
    23 SEA 41
    24 ATL 41
    25 PHI 38
    26 LAC 38
    27 BOS 37
    28 MEM 37
    29 POR 36
    30 GS 33

    EDGAR LINES FOR 01.18.07
    (favorite-spread/moneyline-dog)

    IND 0.5/103 over MIA

    DAL 7.2/277 over LAX

    STRIKE PRICES (5%-OFF MARKER)
    (At this moneyline or better, team is a play both SU and ATS under 5%-ML-OFF method.)

    IND +115, MIA +122

    LAX +348, DAL -226

    20%-OFF MARKER
    (This moneyline is now 20% away from Edgar ML. Results this far out have been subpar.)

    IND +213, MIA +228

    LAX +1199, DAL -121


    NOTE on MIA's rating over the last ten games. Wade has been back for 5 games now, all road games. In those 5 games, average Heat gamescore awarded by my numbers is 59.4. In the 5 games before that: 23.4. He is a huge differencemaker (duh). Heat are at home Thursday, where recent past performance has been much without Wade and so the numbers in my rating are dragged down somewhat (in my view) artificially vs their actual current capability at home.

    Bottom line -- I think Miami is underrated by the current numbers and for this game with the Pacers.
    Last edited by Jay Edgar; 01-18-07 at 12:18 AM.

  2. #2
    bigboydan
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    Join Date: 08-10-05
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    Good eye on that heat game Jay.

    The heat have been playing very good ball since Wade's return. Whats even more surprising to me is the fact they did it on the west coast trip.

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