[Jago2008]

What you are getting in essence is Miami as a pick'em tonight, they just have to win the game, forget about spread. With the way this is unfolding, the refs assigned to this game, and essentially Miami's record in responding after a loss, statistical probabilities are in your favor. Furthermore if you DO believe that Miami is going to win tonight, the chances of Miami winning game 7 @ home are significantly higher with home-court advantage, as evidenced by finals history.

And depending on how tonight goes, saying Miami wins, you have a great chance of middl'ing on game 7 or live-betting if you find necessary to hedge or middle. Given the line tonight of -6.5,7 there is a chance the line could be the same or higher than +7. Furthermore if Miami wins tonight you can enter game 7 @ a great value as a pick-em.

-obviously if the Spurs win tonight, my write-up is a complete waste, clearly-tho I am leaning Miami tonight.

GL.

10-unit play.

[Seto]

This all depends on what you think the game 7 line will be.

If you take ML tonight, win then put all the winnings (stake+profit) on ML game 7, it's exactly the same as a series bet. The line could be higher or lower though, so it all depends on where you see the game 7 line.

[Jago2008]

If Miami wins tonight, I'm sure the books will set the ML higher in game 7; with your approach you are right as-well if you do go "all-in" on the ML tonight, paired with profit, and do the same game 7 you will end up about the same BUT you have to go "all-in", to quote the movie "Rounders" in essence is to always give yourself "a way out" if a loss occurs.

[Jago2008]

This all depends on what you think the game 7 line will be.

If you take ML tonight, win then put all the winnings (stake+profit) on ML game 7, it's exactly the same as a series bet. The line could be higher or lower though, so it all depends on where you see the game 7 line.

You on Miami too I assume Seto?

[drfunkmaster]

whats your insight on the over 191

[Seto]

You on Miami too I assume Seto?

Yeah but I've had my bet locked in for a while. +114 approximately on the series.

[Jago2008]

Yeah but I've had my bet locked in for a while. +114 approximately on the series.

Nice line, GL.

[Seto]

Nice line, GL.

thx you too.

[Jago2008]

whats your insight on the over 191

Honestly Dr.Funk just from a superficial overlook I would like the 'under' in game 6 given Miamis defense at home. Danny Green is not going to be knocking down 28 foot 3's in Miami, and most likely 'Over' game 7 if there is one. But again, that would be my initial lean, I didnt grade any total plays so far.

[drfunkmaster]

thanks for your insight...

[Jago2008]

Just ..... plain.... wow.

[Jago2008]

[Yazworm91]

This all depends on what you think the game 7 line will be.

If you take ML tonight, win then put all the winnings (stake+profit) on ML game 7, it's exactly the same as a series bet. The line could be higher or lower though, so it all depends on where you see the game 7 line.

The lines on the playoff games are almost always the same +/- .5 didn't matter if Miami won this game by 50 the line was going to be about the same.

And the series bet before game 6 was what miami -125? Vs back to back -300 ML?

[Jago2008]

The lines on the playoff games are almost always the same +/- .5 didn't matter if Miami won this game by 50 the line was going to be about the same.

And the series bet before game 6 was what miami -125? Vs back to back -300 ML?

Yes it was high as +105 after Heat lost game 1, but down to -125, ended @ -130 5dimes.com, LVH, Wynn, few other locations, down 3-2 prior to today's game.

With all this being said, I think the Spurs will play well again, it should be a great game 7.

[Jago2008]

If Miami wins tonight, I'm sure the books will set the ML higher in game 7; with your approach you are right as-well if you do go "all-in" on the ML tonight, paired with profit, and do the same game 7 you will end up about the same BUT you have to go "all-in", to quote the movie "Rounders" in essence is to always give yourself "a way out" if a loss occurs.

Well I need to correct myself, the line is not higher in game 7, especially after that game 6 outcome. But we are still getting good value on this entering this game, so GL to everyone on Miami, especially on those series bets that got better value.

-Some nice palm desert vacation money if this hits.

[Jago2008]