1. #1
    Jgjk
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    How can I explain to an idiot coworker that Vegas does their homework and knows

    the trends, stats, etc. He says Vegas knows nothing about the nba and that "at the end of the day you cant say whos better or not because they need to put the ball in the basket. Anyone can win"

    its hard to explain that theres blind bets and educated bets....

  2. #2
    Seto
    Jose Mourinho: simply the best
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    Introduce him to Seaweed.

  3. #3
    hockey216
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    people that make lines use statistical models. they know their stuff. over 95% of players lose long term, so obviously vegas is smart because nobody can beat them. they use good math models.

  4. #4
    thunderous
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    Quote Originally Posted by hockey216 View Post
    people that make lines use statistical models. they know their stuff. over 95% of players lose long term, so obviously vegas is smart because nobody can beat them. they use good math models.
    Disagree. Take away the VIG and there will be 100's of cappers that can beat the books and I am not saying I am one of them but there are smart numbers people (maybe a little lucky too) who can do it. Why do you think they have -110 lines and not -102 lines?

  5. #5
    TwoWays
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    blah, blah, blah. Just one word - fixed.

  6. #6
    Shazzadude
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    Offer to become his bookie.

  7. #7
    mysterio619
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    Quote Originally Posted by TwoWays View Post
    blah, blah, blah. Just one word - fixed.
    TwoWays I need you to go 1 way and that's the fuk out of this forum

  8. #8
    Reno_Thor
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    Show him/her a picture of the strip and explain it was built because they know their shit. Granted sports books account for a small percentage of casino winnings (see "vig" comment) they still win more than they lose even on the NBA. Those that set the lines know its more about betters perception; guaranteeing they take home the 10% "vig" than beating the "informed" better. As you may have noticed the "experts" here on the SBR forums can make (sometimes) valid arguments for betting a game either way. At the end of the day they do have to put the ball in the basket and randomness and chaos play a huge factor but they get paid either way over the long haul.

  9. #9
    easyliving
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    if he thinks vegas doesn't know shit tell him to start betting and taking full advantage of those wrong lines.

  10. #10
    TwoWays
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    Quote Originally Posted by mysterio619 View Post
    TwoWays I need you to go 1 way and that's the fuk out of this forum
    I have senority over you. GTFO!

  11. #11
    chefko
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    i know a guy who is setting lines at pinnacle and he admitted that he has no cluy about actual player strenght and rumors. he says he is waiting for opening lines from euro bookies and then sets up low limit bets until a sharp line is created. then he opens up the limits so that he gets approx. equal value on both sides.
    through the vig he earns his money.

    simple as that.

  12. #12
    mysterio619
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    Quote Originally Posted by TwoWays View Post
    I have senority over you. GTFO!
    "Seniority" LOL It's only an online forum dikhead

  13. #13
    TwoWays
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    Quote Originally Posted by mysterio619 View Post
    "Seniority" LOL It's only an online forum dikhead
    you took that serious. what a doofus. go rub one out before cuming back online.

  14. #14
    BigDofBA
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    Quote Originally Posted by easyliving View Post
    if he thinks vegas doesn't know shit tell him to start betting and taking full advantage of those wrong lines.
    It's really that simple. If it's so easy, start betting money buddy....

  15. #15
    JayLA
    On to the next one...
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    Quote Originally Posted by chefko View Post
    i know a guy who is setting lines at pinnacle and he admitted that he has no cluy about actual player strenght and rumors. he says he is waiting for opening lines from euro bookies and then sets up low limit bets until a sharp line is created. then he opens up the limits so that he gets approx. equal value on both sides.
    through the vig he earns his money.

    simple as that.

  16. #16
    Hadley13
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    They're smart because if they wernt they wouldn't be in business!

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