1. #1
    Goat Milk
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    Miami vs. Spurs game 1 in depth analysis. $1720 on the -215 ml.

    This series reminds me a lot of the Dallas Heat series 2 years ago when Lebron James cost the team a chance at a nba championship their first year together.

    When the Heat formed, I said on this site this team would be a dynasty. People laughed at me when the Heat started off the season at .500 their first 20 games. We now know who won those debates with the Heat making their third nba finals in a row.

    The Spurs are a team that thrives on execution. With this being a first nba finals game for the majority of their players, it's tough to assess how they are going to respond. Everyone on the Heat team save for Birdman and Rashard Lewis have been to and won an NBA finals I believe. That's a pretty significant advantage in my book. Miami is the more experienced team here by far.

    I expect MIA to win this series in 5 or 6. Popovic will win 1 game by himself based on his adjustments. Carlisle is a very similar coach but lets not forget mia was up by 15 with 5 min to go in game 2 and they blew that lead. This miami team will not do the same.

    Leonard is going to start on Lebron James. A strong defender but doesn't have the lateral quickness that Lebron does and imo his strength, which is usually his biggest asset, will not phase James one bit. The Spurs are going to have to trap him whenever possible and force him to be a playmaker, which is naturally what he wants to do. The only way to beat Lebron James is to get inside his head.

    Dallas succeeded with playing a ton of zone in 2011 and I expect Pop to employ a similar strategy. Lebron was frustrated with the zone but this time around, his jumper is much improved so you can't rely strictly on zone. If Leonard struggles on James, expect Danny Green to get a crack at him and Leonard to switch over to Wade. Green is a longer defender with quicker hands but he will most definitely struggle to guard James down in the high or low post.

    I think we are going to see a big series from Wade. He is clearly hurting but with all the attention Pop is going to put on stopping James, I expect Wade to see a lot of 1 on 1, something he hasn't had for a while. If the Heat go with a larger lineup at times, expect Parker to guard Wade for brief moments, but I doubt that will work out. Parker will most likely have to guard Ray Allen when the Heat go with Wade at the point.

    Let's not forget that over 3 nba finals runs (2 rings), Wade's ppg average in the finals is among the best in NBA history. I don't expect him to be averaging no 15 ppg in these finals, hurt or not. Spurs are not big enough down low to bother Wade. With the exception of the two Spurs wing defenders I named, there is no one on this team that can really just pack in the paint and bother Wade and James. Duncan knows better than to leave Bosh all alone.

    Also let's not forget that Wade is going to be predominately guarding Green/Leonard, which essentially means he doesn't have to do much defensively. Unlike last series where he was forced to guard Paul George for 75% of the series, and the one before, where he was guarding Butler for 38 min a game...

    I expect Tony Parker to have a good series. Chalmers and Cole need to take it upon themselves to limit this guy somehow, and trust me, if they don't do well, Wade will most likely switch onto Parker in critical moments, followed by a brief stretch of Lebron -- just to throw Parker off rhythm.

    Duncan and Bosh is the most significant matchup in this series. I'm not exactly sure if Spol is going to put Bosh on Duncan, or let Haslem start on him. Bosh should take it upon himself to guard Tim Duncan. No questions asked. This is the NBA finals. You want that matchup. On the other end, Bosh has thrived against Duncan, averaging 20 and 10 I believe against the Spurs. Duncan should get his against Bosh, but at the other end, Duncan is doing a lot more work. Bosh likes to stay on the perimeter, and now Duncan has to shift to contact Lebron/Wade from getting to the paint and have great recovery speed to get to Bosh when they kick it out.

    There is a lot to say about Miami's bench and the Spurs bench, but I want to get a feel for game 1 before I start making comments.

    Ginobli comes in the game around the 5 minute mark in the first quarter. Expect him to guard Dwayne Wade until he exits and for Ray Allen to pick him up near the end of the first quarter moving to the 8 or 9 minute mark in the second.

    Ginobli should play solid. He is going to see multiple solid defenders tonight. When he's in at the end of the game, expect Lebron or Wade to guard Ginobli.

    The Spurs right a lot of high pick and roles, but MIA in my opinion is the best team in the NBA at defending the pick and roll. Their rotations are so fast. Tonight, I expect Pop to pick on the high pick and role, executing it multiple times until you get Bosh stuck on an island with Tony Parker. IMO, that's going to be the most effective offense for the Spurs tonight, until their role players and bench get settled in for this moment that most have never encountered.

    I told you all that my object was to win 7,000 in the NBA playoffs. I'm already ahead of schedule. I don't play around during the finals. Film session tomorrow evening after this game.

    $1720 on the -215.
    Wade OVER 17 Points -110 Risk $220
    Bosh OVER 14.5 Points -110 Risk $110

    Wade Series PPG OVER 16.5 -125 (5 dimes line) Risk $125
    Lebron James a tripple double in series +230 Risk $50
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  2. #2
    NittanyLionsFan
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    Lol you are clueless

  3. #3
    chefko
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    sry bro but there are too many "if"s in your text.

    somebody who played crap all season including playoffs, and in adition with injury, who the fukk will he up his level for 7!! games?!! (bosh and wade).

    then you add that a teams that swept last series are 7 of 8 against teams who played a 7 game series before.

  4. #4
    Goat Milk
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    Quote Originally Posted by chefko View Post
    sry bro but there are too many "if"s in your text.

    somebody who played crap all season including playoffs, and in adition with injury, who the fukk will he up his level for 7!! games?!! (bosh and wade).

    then you add that a teams that swept last series are 7 of 8 against teams who played a 7 game series before.
    Wade averaged 21 5 and 5 this season. Is that crap? I believe only 3 other guys in the league did that this year if I'm not mistaken...

    The matchups dictate how you play. Spurs don't have the perimeter athletes to stay with Wade and certainly not the size to limit Bosh to 9-12 points a game.

  5. #5
    ShogunRua
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    Way ahead of schedule? Yeah, your playoff record is < .500 and all your winnings are from chase bets (one being $6000 which is about 60x your normal bet). I'm sure you can post a screenshot though and prove us all wrong. Oh, but wait, you can't do that. Because that 6k bet never happened.

  6. #6
    PerfectGrape
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    Good writeup, although who cares about the people who laughed at you when you predicted the Heat to win multiple titles. I don't think anyone with a brain truly thought the Heat winning multiple titles was out of the question. I disagree with you about Miami's advantage in having experience in the NBA finals. Spurs have had plenty of playoff experience, execute better, veteran team, should not be shell shocked from the Finals. Not sure why you think Bosh and Duncan is the most significant matchup. Why is it any more significant than any other matchups? Bosh kinda sucks defensively, think Haslem will play a bigger defensive role, have seen Bosh struggle mightily in the past playoffs so wouldn't be surprised if he's a nonfactor.

  7. #7
    Goat Milk
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    Quote Originally Posted by ShogunRua View Post
    Way ahead of schedule? Yeah, your playoff record is < .500 and all your winnings are from chase bets (one being $6000 which is about 60x your normal bet). I'm sure you can post a screenshot though and prove us all wrong. Oh, but wait, you can't do that. Because that 6k bet never happened.
    Yup. Whatever makes you happy.

  8. #8
    Goat Milk
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    Quote Originally Posted by PerfectGrape View Post
    Good writeup, although who cares about the people who laughed at you when you predicted the Heat to win multiple titles. I don't think anyone with a brain truly thought the Heat winning multiple titles was out of the question. I disagree with you about Miami's advantage in having experience in the NBA finals. Spurs have had plenty of playoff experience, execute better, veteran team, should not be shell shocked from the Finals. Not sure why you think Bosh and Duncan is the most significant matchup. Why is it any more significant than any other matchups? Bosh kinda sucks defensively, think Haslem will play a bigger defensive role, have seen Bosh struggle mightily in the past playoffs so wouldn't be surprised if he's a nonfactor.
    Because if Bosh struggles Duncan can cheat off him and that changes the game entirely. If Bosh plays well, Spurs have virtually no chance to win this series because then you are forced to play james and wade 1 on 1 or move to a zone which favors MIA this time around with a plethora of shooters on their team.

  9. #9
    t-wizzle
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    Guy is acting cocky because he won one game. Got his ass handed to him two years ago in the playoffs and yet proclaims himself an nba postseason winner.

    Get a grip goat. Win more than one game and then talk to me. "Thanks."

  10. #10
    seancon121
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    good analysis and I think the majority of your bets will hit. Heat is going to be the much better team in game 1, bosh and wade wont be under as much pressure as against the pacers and will have decent games. There are a lot of ifs but this is the Miami heat were talking about and they are gonna dominate spurs at home imo

  11. #11
    Smoke
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    Gus Fring!

  12. #12
    Goat Milk
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    Quote Originally Posted by t-wizzle View Post
    Guy is acting cocky because he won one game. Got his ass handed to him two years ago in the playoffs and yet proclaims himself an nba postseason winner.

    Get a grip goat. Win more than one game and then talk to me. "Thanks."
    Dude I'm up in both the reg. season this year and the playoffs. All documented by a third party. Who even knows how much you lost this reg. season. You were too scared to even track your record.

    I cleaned up last year in the playoffs and will clean up this year.

  13. #13
    louielouie
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    He is right. The heat will win it all starting tonight. Wouldn't be surprised to see a sweep.

  14. #14
    PerfectGrape
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    Quote Originally Posted by Goat Milk View Post
    Because if Bosh struggles Duncan can cheat off him and that changes the game entirely. If Bosh plays well, Spurs have virtually no chance to win this series because then you are forced to play james and wade 1 on 1 or move to a zone which favors MIA this time around with a plethora of shooters on their team.
    I see good point, I would also think if you have to give up looks, force Bosh to make jumpers, Spurs have a better chance of winning than letting lebron beat you. Heat seem to drive more as the series progresses. Heat tend to lose Game 1s so watch out for that. Gonna wait to see how game 1 plays out before I start looking at sides.

  15. #15
    t-wizzle
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    I'm up roughly $5-6 grand the last year in nba on this forum. All documented and that includes the bad regular season. You went through the worst run in this forums history: fact.

    Congrats on winning a game the other night. Put you up 3 grand - now don't go blowing it all taking Heat every game. Talk to you throughout the Finals.

  16. #16
    Gus Fring
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    Quote Originally Posted by t-wizzle View Post
    I'm up roughly $5-6 grand the last year in nba on this forum. All documented and that includes the bad regular season. You went through the worst run in this forums history: fact.

    Congrats on winning a game the other night. Put you up 3 grand - now don't go blowing it all taking Heat every game. Talk to you throughout the Finals.
    Ur a fraud t fizzle. Uve been caught altering ur record many many times.

  17. #17
    mrfancy
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    goat milk is a clown

  18. #18
    Robb Bank$
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    Lol didn't take me long to figure this guys one of the biggest degenerate clowns on here. Am I right?

  19. #19
    Speedy88
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    Only person on here who actually spent the time to read Goat's post was Goat.
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  20. #20
    sando
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    Great write up as usual mate, however I think your way off on the experience advantage to Miami. The Spurs core - Duncan, Parker & Ginobli alone have more championships than the entire Heat (playing) roster. Also coach Pop is far more experienced than Spoelstra in every facet of the game, especially finals experience. The coaching mismatch in this series is huge. It is not difficult at all to gauge how the Spurs will respond to the finals, as their veteran leadership group, high team IQ and most importantly coach Pop will ensure the smoothest of transitions from the Memphis series to the big one. I agree with you on D-Wade, proven big game performer, however I can see Bosh being dominated by Timmy offensively and I expect he will spend little time guarding him this series. Good luck.

  21. #21
    JMUplayer
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    Duncan and Spittler aren't 50% as physical as Hibbert and West..... Watch Battier and Bosh have BIG games

  22. #22
    Ron29301
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    Quote Originally Posted by JMUplayer View Post
    Duncan and Spittler aren't 50% as physical as Hibbert and West..... Watch Battier and Bosh have BIG games
    It's a whole new ballgame. This is not the regular season. The physicality of the game changes drastically. We'll see tonight just sit back and enjoy.

  23. #23
    capitalist pig
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    Im on the Spurs with the points myself, at least for tonight.

    later

  24. #24
    wikkidinsane
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    Great writeup. bosh does good and the heat wins period. Bosh dont have to deal with worrying about david west and big ass roy hibbert who can body the shit out of him

  25. #25
    goduke
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    you bet on the lakers and the heat. Thats 95 percent of your bets. I hope you get buried.

  26. #26
    You mad bro
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    Funny because Stephen a smith said almost the same exact thing 2 days ago

  27. #27
    ChalkyDog
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    Another -200 or worse pick in PT.

    How much capping is necessary on an obvious favorite?

    I think Ollie Williams in Family Guy with his "blackie weather forecast" is the way to approach this write up.

    "Heat: They really good"

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  28. #28
    PAULYPOKER
    I slipped Tricky Dick a hit of LSD!
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    Goat, put the 17 hundro on the ATS and foe-get about it.........

  29. #29
    Grits n' Gravy
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    Pretty much every single human being that follows NBA said the Heat would become a dynasty when they got LeBron and Bosh. What other earth shattering predictions are you working on? Vegas is hot in the summer?

    I took heat-5 for a small play game 1.

  30. #30
    No coincidences
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    Quote Originally Posted by Grits n' Gravy View Post
    Pretty much every single human being that follows NBA said the Heat would become a dynasty when they got LeBron and Bosh. What other earth shattering predictions are you working on? Vegas is hot in the summer?

  31. #31
    louielouie
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    LeBron is too good. Best of all time if not now, when he is done. He can't be stopped. Spurs too slow, and haven't played anyone as good as the Heat to get here (the Warriors - sheesh). Spurs are over-rested and will be blown out today, and most games this series. Heat in 4, 5 or 6 and LeBron is a finals MVP again. Can't believe anyone thinks the Spurs have a chance. All in on the series, and a couple units on the heat and heat TT. Heat are and will continue to be EASY money all Finals. Might even take the prop for them to win this year and next. They ARE that good.

  32. #32
    PAULYPOKER
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    I'm going with the Spurs rested to long then turned to stone theory............

  33. #33
    TwoWays
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    Spurs suck. 3 hall of fame players, one hall of fame coach, second best nba record (playing in the west), championship pedigree of their own, etc.

  34. #34
    tbird509
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    Does anybody remember what happened 2 spurs last year with the same roster,parker will hav 2 average 30+ pts 2 have a chance, but who else will put up 20 for spurs, imo nobody....heat in 6, nice write up goat, fuk all the haters

  35. #35
    Mac4Lyfe
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    Has Goatmilk EVER bet against the Heat??? The only sure bet is that GoatMilker will never ever ("never ever") bet for any team over the Heat. He is not only a bandwagon fan but an emotional bettor.

    Quote Originally Posted by goduke View Post
    you bet on the lakers and the heat. Thats 95 percent of your bets. I hope you get buried.

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