Originally Posted by
Goat Milk
I have only bet 2 games this entire series. Miami game 3 and Miami game 5. I've rewatched the game 3 times and here is my brief analysis. I don't mess around when I'm tossing around this kind of money. Doesn't come as easy to me as it does to lakerman and some others.
In game 5, I said the recipe for success would be to front Hibbert on every play possible. Haslem was pretty successful in this respect but still had some lapses. Game 6, they completely went away from that in the 2nd half. There was too much focus by Wade and Chalmers and Lebron on the pass into the post that they were backing off on guys like Paul George, Hill, etc, guys you can't give that couple of feet because they are going to rise up every time. You need to play Hibbert 1 on 1 in this game 7. The only time I suggest a hard collapse will be when Hibbert is near the baseline and you can essentially use the baseline as a defender.
2nd point- You have to front David West if you're going to put Battier on him. West might be the strongest post player in the NBA. Battier is a SF. You need Lebron to switch onto West whenever possible. Lebron's lower body is stronger than West so when he fronts him, it'll be impossible to get the ball into West with Lebron's combination of lower body strength and vertical.
3rd point- As much that's been made of Wade and Bosh this series, Lebron James has been awful on the defensive end of the ball. THe strategy for MIA has been allow Wade to guard Paul George and let Lebron save his energy for the offensive end. Unfortunately, Paul has done the majority of his damage when Lebron has switched onto him. Lebron is not 250 pounds. He's 275. Maybe more. The guy has lost a step in quickness since a few years ago. He's putting on too much muscle and George has blown by him several times. James needs to accept the challenge of guarding multiple guys on the floor tonight and stop worrying about chucking up 25 shots a game. He needs to relax on the shot attempts. I expect a magic-type performance from Lebron on the offensive end tonight. 10 assists probably.
4th point- It's clear that Wade is not healthy. For those saying he's washed up, I do believe he's one of maybe 3 players? to average over 20 5 and 5 this year. All on taking only 15-16 shots a game, and a career year in fg%. Guys like Wade need shots to get in a rhythm. You can't let Wade take only 7, 8, 10 shots a game. That type of player needs touches. He needs to feel the ball. See the ball go through the rim. A lot of the shots he's missed have been bunnies. He's been scared to elevate and put a lot of pressure on that knee. Wade came out and said that he wants more touches in game 7. Expect this team to follow their true leader in Wade and for him to come out and drop 20+ points and take at least 15 shots.
5th point- Bosh got manhandled in game 6. He's been destroyed by Hibbert in every game this season. Spoelstra has thoroughly been outcoached this series. When does Bosh need to be on the court? When Mahimi is out there to give Hibbert a breather. Spoelstra is an average coach. I noticed this after game 1. I should be on those sidelines. Bosh is spending way too much time on the perimeter and hasn't been aggressive. I expect double digit points tonight from him as well. Why? The recipe for MIA is quite simple. When both Lebron and Wade are attacking the paint with efficiency, you have no choice but to bring hibbert and west down to collapse. Seeing as though Wade has been struggling big time, it's no surprise that Bosh hasn't been getting open looks. A good game from Wade usually means a solid game from Bosh as well.
6th point- Expect MIA to focus on getting Wade involved early off flare screens and off those curls him and James frequently run in the paint. As a leader, James needs to understand that he can't take 25 shots this game. He MUST get guys like Allen, Battier, CHalmers involved early and often. With PG defending Lebron quite well, I don't expect him to score over 30 tonight.
Haslem should be a beneficiary of both James and Wade tonight.
Pacers offensive system will collapse tonight, just how I said it would in game 5. Spending so much time trying to feed the big men tonight is gonna leave the perimeter players with minimal time to get their shots up.
On a defensive note, they've done a great job of guarding 1 on 1 throughout this series. If Wade gets going, that whole formula changes, even if Vogal tells them not to. It's instinct. Hibbert gets worried and starts rotating down, leaving Bosh and Haslem open in the corners and on the elbows.
MIAMI -350 Risk $6000
Miami -4 -170 Risk $1000 (5 dimes line)
MIA HT& FT -130 Risk $325 (5 dimes prop)
MIA wins by 6-10 +310 (5 dimes line) Risk $75
JAMES OVER 6.5 assists +110 (5 dimes line) Risk $100
WADE OVER 16 points -110 Risking $330
As you can see, with this amount of money on the line, I'm pretty scared to take the -7. I Think it's possible MIA squeaks out a 4 5 point win. IMO I think they win by 6. I'm not taking a -7 with that little margin for error. The Pacers are a very good team, and I suspect them to play well tonight, but just be outmatched here.
FYI MIA ML is my biggest bet of the year.
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Biggest Bet of the Year. Heat ML, Mia -4 -170, + more. In Depth Analysis Inside.
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Goat Milk gave BIGDAY 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.
