[Jay Edgar]

Again on Wednesday, the two plays farthest off the Pinny line, the Bucks and Nuggets, go down. As I have noted in the reports through the year so far, this is a recurring phenomenon.

At the risk of making it too busy, I'm going to add one more table to the daily numbers. Sort of an anti-strike-price. I'll list the ML which, if reached, would be 20% away from the Edgar ML. Consistently this year, plays on a ML that is 18-20% or more away from the Edgar ML have been worse than break even. Plays between 5%-off and 19%-off have been solidly profitable.

MONEYLINE PLAYS (at 1* each)
Wednesday, 3-5, +2.40u
(NOK, BOS, NY, CHA, MIL, POR, DEN, SEA)
YTD 135-233, +35.41u

SAME TEAMS ATS (at 1* each)
Wednesday, 3-5, -2.25u
YTD 194-168 (.536), +17.60u

POWER RATINGS OVER LAST 10 GAMES
1 PHX 71
2 ORL 66
3 HOU 66
4 DAL 65
5 CLE 63
6 WAS 58
7 SAN 58
8 MIN 56
9 NJ 56
10 CHI 55
11 NY 53
12 LAC 53
13 TOR 53
14 UTH 52
15 DET 52
16 IND 51
17 LAX 51
18 SAC 50
19 CHA 46
20 MIL 46
21 PHI 43
22 GS 42
23 MEM 42
24 BOS 41
25 DEN 40
26 MIA 38
27 NOK 37
28 SEA 35
29 POR 29
30 ATL 28

EDGAR LINES FOR 01.11.07
(favorite-spread/ML-dog)

CHI 4.1/163 over NJ

PHX 5.3/184 over CLE

STRIKE PRICES
(at this ML or better, team is a play both SU and ATS under 5%-ML-OFF method)

NJ +196, CHI -137

CLE +223, PHX -154

20% MARKER
(at this ML, line is now 20% away from Edgar ML. Results this far out have been subpar)

NJ +421, CHI +131

CLE +510, PHX +117

[shrax4]

Would you recommending fading the line at 20% or greater than?

[Jay Edgar]

You might.

I'd recommend not hesitating to play the team disfavored by the Edgar Line at 20%-plus if you like them independently. With the big 20% off numbers, that team is often one of the big 3 (DAL, SAN, PHX)

Love the avatar.

[shrax4]

Will absolutely check out the 20% difference with the Suns game tomorrow.

I'm glad you like the avatar, Jim Carrey is a hero of mine.

[Hulu]

Have you had any thoughts about what Pinnacle's decision to leave the US market might have on the lines and your system? I'm no expert but with the US making up 60% of their market, the lines may change somewhat.

[Jay Edgar]

Going to watch with interest, like everyone else.

Mostly I am sad.

But clearly it's the end of something and the start of something else. We'll just have to figure out what.