[BBall Bet]

Instead of starting a thread per game.
This will by the place where I will post my picks pregame.

[19th Hole]

Attaboy...Now you're cookin'

Do your spoutin' off in your own thread
but remember...
Humble wins speak loudest.

Good Luck.

[Dollars2Donuts]

Good luck

[Doughboy22]

Good luck bball

[BBall Bet]

Good Luck.

Good luck

Good luck bball

Good luck to you too.

[BBall Bet]

Today's Game Simulation, Spurs vs Warriors
- example variables:
what if Curry has a hot shooting night?
What if Klay has an average shooting night?
And so forth and so on, the variables changing per simulation game.

Simulation 1 Winner (After 1000 Games): Spurs -1
Simulation 2 Winner (After 1000 Games): Warriors +1
Simulation 3 Winner (After 1000 Games): Spurs -1
Simulation 4 Winner (After 1000 Games): Warriors +1
Simulation 5 Winner (After 1000 Games): Spurs -1
Simulation 6 Winner (After 1000 Games): Spurs -1
Simulation 7 Winner (After 1000 Games): Warriors +1

Spurs 4 POINTS (Spurs have 57% chance of winning)
Warriors 3 POINTS (Warriors have 43% chance of winning)

My Pick: Pass. Tally this close is an automatic pass for me. Good luck.

[amolg24]

You edited your post and didnt include a reason? and you posted it after tip off too...not a good look for credibility if you ask me.

[BBall Bet]

You edited your post and didnt include a reason? and you posted it after tip off too...not a good look for credibility if you ask me.

Reason for editing: Added chance of winning

So what if I posted the simulation after the tip off, I passed, so it doesn't matter.

[BBall Bet]

Play for today is Grizzlies -4.5 (60% chance of winning)

Pregame tracking purpose
pregame*com/members/bball-bet/picks_hq/default.aspx

[BBall Bet]

Play for today is Grizzlies -4.5 (60% chance of winning)

Winner

[BBall Bet]

Play for today is:
Knicks +5.5 (71% chance of winning)
Over 179.5 (Correlated Play)

Pregame tracking purpose
pregame*com/members/bball-bet/picks_hq/default.aspx

[amolg24]

Nice W...Spurs were 57% and Grizzlies were 60%...is that the difference with your system between automatically laying off and playing the pick?

[amolg24]

Play for today is:
Knicks +5.5 (71% chance of winning)
Over 179.5 (Correlated Play)

Pregame tracking purpose
pregame*com/members/bball-bet/picks_hq/default.aspx

Like the Knicks today as well

[BBall Bet]

Nice W...Spurs were 57% and Grizzlies were 60%...is that the difference with your system between automatically laying off and playing the pick?

To save time, I usually run the simulation 4 times. When the tally is wide at at 4th simulations, i stop it altogether. When it's really close I up the simulation to 7.

For example:
End of simulation 5 result tally is 60%: Team A (3) vs Team B (2)
End of simulation 7 result tally is 57%: Team C (4) vs Team D (3)

Match up AB at 4th simulation is not close, because of initial 3-1 tally, but I still run it to 5th simulation because of odd round robin numbering (even round robin can't break ties).

Match up CD is close at 2-2 in the 4th simulation, so I had to run it all the way to 7th simulation.

So to answer your question, the 57% is close while the 60% is not.

[BBall Bet]

Last 10 Days Picks (8-4, 67%)

5-11-2013 (3 Win - 1 Lost)
Spurs ML
Spurs +2
Under 204 @ Spurs vs Warriors
Under 187.5 @ Bulls vs Heat

5-12-2013 (1 Win)
Pacers -4.5

5-13-2013 (Pass)
Spurs (57% chance of covering)

5-14-2013 (1 Win)
Grizzlies -4.5

5-15-2013 (2 Lost)
Knicks +5.5
Over 179.5

5-15-2013 (1 Lost)
Pacers +5

5-17-2013 (1 Win)
Spurs -1

5-18-2013 (1 Win)
Pacers -5

5-19-2013 (1 Win)
Spurs -4.5

Pregame Tracking
pregame*com/members/bball-bet/picks_hq/default.aspx

[BBall Bet]

Game Time: Tuesday, 05/21/2013
Pick: Spurs -4.5

[BBall Bet]

Game Time: Wednesday 05/22/2013
Pick: Pacers +8

[BBall Bet]

Game Time: Tuesday, 05/21/2013
Pick: Spurs -4.5

Result: Spurs won by 4

[Jikos]

I like the fact that you estimate the probability of the bet winning and bet based on that, rather than claiming to have picked a winner, or a lock.

[BBall Bet]

I like the fact that you estimate the probability of the bet winning and bet based on that, rather than claiming to have picked a winner, or a lock.

1. Risk is inherent. Uncertainty is high in the NBA. No teams win 100% on the season. Sooner or later they will incur lost. So there is no "lock" winner, just probability of winning. If the lines are too good to be true, it probably is. Plus high vigorish will make you bankrupt because of higher break even percentage. So I avoid favorite moneyline with very low returns.

2. Gambling if you think about is addictive to some, because the rewards are instantaneous. But the higher the risk, the better the reward, the less likely you would win. I also try to avoid parlays as much as possible.

3. I am not a gut feeling gambler, or an emotional gambler. I never bet on or against teams that I watch for fun. For example, Spurs, Pacers and Grizzlies are not my "for fun" teams, but I watch them because of betting. I pass on matchups which is too close on my calculations.


ESTIMATING WIN BY PATIENCE

The hare and the tortoise parable is a good example here, the key is patience and discipline. There are two ways to go about it:

1. Be very conservative and invest just 1% to 2.5% of my starting bankroll every betting day, recalculating the 1% after achieving an increase 20% on your bankroll, aiming for a modest 56% win lost record annually. This is perfect for beginners or compulsive gamblers.

OR

2. Go half-Kelly which is riskier, higher sized bets on higher probabilities, normal sized bets on average probability. This of course has higher variance, but is nearer to the power of compounding interest (this is only for those who knows how to calculate their edge.)

Either way, you must have a self-control not to go all-out on "sure bets," and avoid chasing your lost. My aim at the end of the year is reaching 58% win lost record. My bankroll so far is increasing around 15% compounded every week.

From time to time I bet for fun, diverging from my rules and put a very small percentage on heavy favorite moneyline (even here my maximum is -400, and I avoid double digit minus teams). But most of the time, I stick to my rules.

[BBall Bet]

From time to time I bet for fun, diverging from my rules and put a small percentage on heavy favorite moneyline (even here my maximum is -400, and I avoid double digit minus teams).

A good example: Miami Heat moneyline (-383)

I laid 2% of my bankroll just for fun.

If you ask me though, I'll take the boring and slow earning ones than the fun ones. I find the boring moneymakers to be better earners.

[BBall Bet]

Miami Heat moneyline (-383)
I laid 2% of my bankroll just for fun.

Game Time: Wednesday 05/22/2013
Pick: Pacers +8

Winners 2-0 today

[BBall Bet]

Last 12 Days Picks (10-5, 67%)

5-11-2013 (3 Win - 1 Lost)
Spurs ML
Spurs +2
Under 204 @ Spurs vs Warriors
Under 187.5 @ Bulls vs Heat

5-12-2013 (1 Win)
Pacers -4.5

5-13-2013 (Pass)
Spurs (57% chance of covering)

5-14-2013 (1 Win)
Grizzlies -4.5

5-15-2013 (2 Lost)
Knicks +5.5
Over 179.5

5-15-2013 (1 Lost)
Pacers +5

5-17-2013 (1 Win)
Spurs -1

5-18-2013 (1 Win)
Pacers -5

5-19-2013 (1 Win)
Spurs -4.5

5-21-2013 (1 Lost)
Spurs -4.5 (Spurs won by 4)

5-22-2013 (2 Wins)
Pacers +8
Heat ML

[BBall Bet]

Game Time: 05/24/2013
Pick: Pacers +7.5

[BBall Bet]

Game Time: 05/24/2013
Pick: Pacers +7.5

Winner again today

[BBall Bet]

Simulation 1 Winner (After 1000 Games): Spurs +5.5
Simulation 2 Winner (After 1000 Games): Spurs +5.5
Simulation 3 Winner (After 1000 Games): Grizzlies -5.5
Simulation 4 Winner (After 1000 Games): Grizzlies -5.5
Simulation 5 Winner (After 1000 Games): Spurs +5.5
Simulation 6 Winner (After 1000 Games): Grizzlies -5.5
Simulation 7 Winner (After 1000 Games): Spurs +5.5

Spurs 4 POINTS (Spurs have 57% chance of covering)
Grizzlies 3 POINTS (Grizzlies have 43% of covering)

Analysis: Tally this close is USUALLY an automatic pass for me.
But the succeeding days rest might be an advantage for Duncan, Manu, and Parker.

Coach Nick has a nice analysis, on why resting helped the Spurs win Game 2.



The foul trouble of Duncan in the 4th was a blessing in disguise.
Yes, Randolph finally was a factor when Duncan was not on the floor, but this backfired.
Duncan performed well in overtime because he was well-rested.

Pick: Spurs +5.5

[BBall Bet]

Pick: Spurs +5.5

Winner Again!

The succeeding days rest might be an advantage for Duncan, Manu, and Parker.

Duncan: 24 points, 10 Rebounds, 5 Assist
Parker: 26 points, 4 Rebounds, 5 Assist
Manu: 19 points, 7 Rebounds, 5 Assist

[BBall Bet]

2 Weeks Picks (12-5, 70%)

5-11-2013 (3 Win - 1 Lost)
Spurs ML
Spurs +2
Under 204 @ Spurs vs Warriors
Under 187.5 @ Bulls vs Heat

5-12-2013 (1 Win)
Pacers -4.5

5-13-2013 (Pass)
Spurs (57% chance of covering)

5-14-2013 (1 Win)
Grizzlies -4.5

5-15-2013 (2 Lost)
Knicks +5.5
Over 179.5

5-15-2013 (1 Lost)
Pacers +5

5-17-2013 (1 Win)
Spurs -1

5-18-2013 (1 Win)
Pacers -5

5-19-2013 (1 Win)
Spurs -4.5

5-21-2013 (1 Lost)
Spurs -4.5 (Spurs won by 4)

5-22-2013 (2 Wins)
Pacers +8
Heat ML

05/24/2013 (1 Win)
Pick: Pacers +7.5

05/25/2013 (1 Win)
Spurs +5.5

[BBall Bet]

Pacers (64% Chance of Winning)

Pacers Homecourt Record:
2-0 Against the Heat in regular season
2-1 (Pacers 94 vs Miami 75) in the 3rd game of 2012 playoffs
6-0 Straight up wins in 2013 playoffs
6-0 Against the Spread wins in 2013 playoffs
36-11 SU (76%) & 28-19 ATS (60%) for 2012-2013 season

Analysis:
- The pick and roll of Pacers is very good.
- The momentum is on Pacers.
- Hibbert and West are hard for Miami to defend inside the paint.

Pick: Pacers +2, Pacers ML, Under 183