[Reek's bathwater]

Hello everyone. I have been betting for about 2 weeks now. I am having beginners luck as my $20 initial bankroll is up a little over 50%, but I have yet to win a single over/under. To get over this I am going to start sharing my picks, and how I go about getting them. I intend to reveal as much of my thought process as possible and maybe someone will tell me if my mind is in the right place, or what mistakes I am making.


Game #1

Golden State Warriors at. San Antonio Spurs over/under 201

First I want to see what these teams do head to head.

The average of the two match ups this past season is 202.5 (considering one of these the Spurs were w/o Tony Parker, this makes me lean to the over already)

Next I look at how much the road team scores per game, and how much they give up per game. Then I total it.
in this case it is GSW road games come out to an average total of 203.5 PPg.

Next I do the same with the Home team for their home team averages, which comes to 200.7. Just under.

Next I do the same as the previous step, only this time just for the last five games

Road last 5 average total = 213.8
Home last 5 average total = 189.3 (Well under, but this doesn't sway me much even though it is way under for three reasons 1. the last four were vs. the Lakers. 2. the fifth was at the end of the regular season when they were already set. 3. the Spurs averaged 104 ppg over that span, it was their opponents that couldn't score.)

Then I average their last five averages together, which comes out to 201.55 (A little over.)

Finally I look at their over/under trends in situations. For example Road team "over" on the road, as the dog, as the dog on the road, ect. and do the same for the home team.

What stuck out to me on the last section is that GSW is "over" over 50% of the time in almost every category, and are never "over" under 50% of the time.
57% on the season
55.1 after a win
59.1 on the road
63.6 as the dog
59.4 as away dog
56.2 on 2-3 days rest
50% in playoff

Spurs are almost the opposite though
44.7% season
46.7 after a win
41.9 home
41.9 favorite
41.9 as home favorite
21.4 2-3 days rest
0.00 on 4+ days rest
50.00 in playoffs

As I look at these numbers I feel like the Spurs numbers may not be as relevant. I think this because I believe their practice of resting starters unexpectedly, and other coaching calls like this, may have made them very difficult to cap for the term that these numbers are based on.

So given that their head to head on the season is over the line, GWS on the Road average for the season is over, GSW's last five are well over, Spur's at home totals are only .3 under, and that the only other data I have used that would make me say under I believe is skewed by it being against the Lakers,

I am taking the over at 201.

This is my first time using this system, and the first time I've put any effort into a system for that matter, so please feel free to pass on any information or tips that I am sure I am missing out on.

[bjb7223]

great name

[Q.ueue]

Playoffs is different

[DiggityDaggityDo]

WHo is Reek?

[CaptainOmar111]

Good Luck

[J_On_A_Roll]

Thats how you win. Get as much useful data as possible.

[bjb7223]

WHo is Reek?

Reek Reek it rhymes with weak.

[Reek's bathwater]

great name

Thanks!!

WHo is Reek?

He is in a popular TV show, but he has only been half-way introduced, so I can't explain because of spoilers. Sorry.

Reek Reek it rhymes with weak.

This guy knows whats up.

Playoffs is different

In what ways should I be accounting for the playoffs being different? I am currently adjusting by giving less weight to some the Spur's regular season information because I feel they have coaching tendencies that may make their regular season numbers a very poor indicator of playoff results.

Good Luck

Thanks!

Thats how you win. Get as much useful data as possible.

Yeah. I think what will be driving me crazy is identifying what is useful, and how useful. I think that is the real challenge of betting.

[Reek's bathwater]

Oaky, this is my breakdown of thunder/Grizzles over/under. Got on it late so the line is 187 for me

Thunder= home team / Memphis= Road

1) head to head total average for the entire season is 190.25 (3.25 over the line)

2)Road team average total ppg on the road for the season 185.2 (1.8 under the line)

3)Home team average total ppg while at home for the season 204 (17 over the line)

4)Road last five total ppg 193.2 (6.2 over the line) Edited to add: These are not the last 5, but rather the numbers for the playoffs

5)Home last five total ppg 200.2 (13.2 over the line)

6)Average of total ppg for both team's last 5 combined 196.7 (9.7 over the line)

7)team's percentage of going over/under in situations.
Both teams go over only about 44% of the time, which makes me lean a little more toward the under, but it doesn't outweigh all of the other stats that are all over the line. additionally the Thunder have been going under in the Playoffs by an average of 3.2 ppg while the Grizzlies have been going over by 13.1 points.

8) points needed per minute per team to reach the line = 1.948
The Grizzlies average 1.95 ppm and the thunder average 2.2 ppm
I like their needed combined 4.154ppm to beat the needed 3.895ppm

9) I also think this line is made with the stinker of a first quarter that happened last game in mind. (30 total points, 14 points lower than the next lowest quarter) I don't think we should expect to see such an outlier again.

I am taking the over 187.

[Reek's bathwater]

Oaky, this is my breakdown of Pacers/Knicks over/under. line is 184 for me.

Knicks= home team / Pacers= Road

1) head to head total average for the entire season is a bit misleading. With all games the average is 180.4 (3.6 under) but there is an outlier. The had one game total 216 with the next closest being the 197 (19 less) and the closest to that was 27 points lower than that. even with the 216 in there it is below the over/under. Without it the average is 172 (8.4 points under the line)

2)Road team average total ppg on the road for the season 183.4 (.6 under the line)

3)Home team average total ppg while at home for the season 192 (8 over the line)

4)Road last five total ppg 178.4 (5.6 under)

5)Home last five total ppg 179.2 (4.8 under)

6)Average of total ppg for both team's last 5 combined 178.8 (5.2 under)

7)team's percentage of going over/under in situations.
No telling information that I could find. Both teams are right around 50%

8) points needed per minute per team to reach the line = 1.916666666
The Home team averages 1.82 ppm in the last 5 games, and the road teams average 1.99 ppm
their combined 3.81 ppm doesn't beat beat the needed 3.8333333ppm

It is close, but I am taking the under 184.

Sorry if anything doesn't make sense. I am learning a lot both about how to find the data I want and what data is most important, so the data I'm taking is slightly different from match-up to match-up. Also If a "Thunder" or "Grizzlies" pop up, then I am sorry. I am working to streamline my process and am working on sticking to "Home" and "Away" teams in explanations, but I may have missed one and I am not proof reading.

[SpreadSniper]

looks like you are trying to go about things in a pretty decent way.... there is no magical formula to success in sports betting.... lots of trials & tribulations. Best way to navigate these treacherous waters is to do what you are doing and figure out what works best for you.

They (lessons) may be expensive from time to time but as long as you actually learn from previous decisions, "failing" today can only benefit tomorrow.

"Screw me once, shame on you. Screw me twice, shame on me"

[Reek's bathwater]

Okay, this is my breakdown of Bulls @ Heat over/under. line is 187 where I bet at this time.

Heat= home team / Bulls= Road

1) head to head total average for the entire season is 180.6. The average totals of their last three are much higher than their first two meetings 191.6

2)Road team average total ppg on the road for the season 188.4 (1.4 under the line)

3)Home team average total ppg while at home for the season 202.1 (15.1 over the line)

4)Road last five total ppg 207 (20 Over)

5)Home last five total ppg 184 (3 under)

6)Average of total ppg for both team's last 5 combined 195.5 (8.5 Over)

7)team's percentage of going over/under in situations.
Heat are over 56% of the time as home favorite, But haven't gone over in the playoffs yet. Under 3 times and tie twice going under an average of 10.3ppg . Bulls go over about 47% of the time as away underdog, and have gone over 66.5% of the games in the playoffs by and average of 12.5 points per game

8) points needed per minute per team to reach the line = 3.895
The Home team averages 2.03 ppm in the last 5 games, and the road teams average 2.03 ppm
their combined 4.06 ppm does beat beat the needed 3.895 ppm

I am taking the Over 187.

[Reek's bathwater]

Okay, this is my breakdown of Warriors @ Spurs over/under. line is 205 where I bet at this time.

Spurs= home team / Warriors= Road

1) head to head total average for the entire season is 205.666. This is counting only the first four quarters of the last game, Not the overtime points.


2)Road team average total ppg on the road for the season 203.5 (1.5 under the line)

3)Home team average total ppg while at home for the season 200.7 (4.3 under the line)

4)Road last five total ppg 213.8 (8.8 Over)

5)Home last five total ppg 189.3 (15.7 under)

6)Average of total ppg for both team's last 5 combined 201.55 (4.45 under)

7)team's percentage of going over/under in situations.
Both have gone over almost 60% in the playoffs.

8) points needed per minute per team to reach the line = 4.27
The Home team averages 2.18 ppm in the last 5 games, and the road teams average 2.18 ppm
their combined 4.36 ppm does beat beat the needed 4.27 ppm Edited to correct this number.

I hate to say over at such a high number, but I do like the 2.18ppm each team has been putting up over the last 5 games. I think that may be the widest margin between average and need so far.

I am taking the Over 205.

[Reek's bathwater]

looks like you are trying to go about things in a pretty decent way.... there is no magical formula to success in sports betting.... lots of trials & tribulations. Best way to navigate these treacherous waters is to do what you are doing and figure out what works best for you.

They (lessons) may be expensive from time to time but as long as you actually learn from previous decisions, "failing" today can only benefit tomorrow.

"Screw me once, shame on you. Screw me twice, shame on me"

Thanks, I really like a lot of your points.

"Best way to navigate these treacherous waters is to do what you are doing and figure out what works best for you."

I Think that Is key for learning right now. Every game I look at i get new ideas like: Why take entire season stats for anything? Does a week 3 Bobcats @ Heat game say anything about round two game game two Bulls @ Heat game?

I am wondering if i should only use post all-star break averages, or possibly only rivalry match up averages. It could help to account only for games where a team might have a playoff game like motivation and focus.

[Reek's bathwater]

I think that may be the widest margin between average and need so far.

On further review, It wasn't even close. In fact it is one of the smallest.

[vinhmen]

I like the analysis and your on a nice roll so keep it up. But NBA totals especially playoffs are extremely sharp and a total crapshoot, blind luck may be the biggest factor. Last night was a perfect example. If Allen dribbles the clock out like most teams do 90% of the time it stays under. Pacers don't score a point in basically an entire qtr yet somehow game still doesnt stay under. Crapshoot.

[drfunkmaster]

good luck

[Jgjk]

i would go "BIG" on 2 games, $15 and $15....

dont waste time betting your $1 and $2 bets

[Reek's bathwater]

Okay, this is my breakdown of Heat @ Bulls over/under. line is 187 where I bet at this time.

Bulls= home team / Heat= Road

1) head to head total average for the entire season is 182.6 and 186 for the last three matchups.

2)Road team average total ppg on the road for the season 193.8 (6.3 over the line)

3)Home team average total ppg while at home for the season 183.3 (3.7 under)

4)Road last five total ppg 183.2 (3.8 under)

5)Home last five total ppg 190.4 (3.4 over)

6)Average of total ppg for both team's last 5 combined 186.4 (.6 under)

Edited to remove a paragraph that belonged in a different pick summary.

7) points needed per minute per team to reach the line = 3.896
The Home team averages 1.89 ppm in the last 5 games, and the road teams average 2.05 ppm
their combined 3.94 ppm does beat beat the needed 3.896.

Most of the early data washes each other out. where one team is under a few points the other team is over, but the teams combines average ppm over the last five games are enough to hit the over mark, but they are also lower than their regular season average ppm. This makes me feel better about Taking the over 187.

[Reek's bathwater]

Okay, this is my breakdown of Spurs @ Warriors over/under. line is 203 where I bet at this time. (I Need better books)

Bulls= home team / Heat= Road

1) head to head total average for the entire season is 202 and 205.6 for the last three match-ups. (again not counting overtime points.

2)Road team average total ppg on the road for the season 200.3 (2.7 under the line)

3)Home team average total ppg while at home for the season 199.4 (3.6 under)

4)Road last five total ppg 206.8 (3.8 over)

5)Home last five total ppg 210 (7 over)

6)Average of total ppg for both team's last 5 combined 208.4 (5.4 over)

7) points needed per minute per team to reach the line = 4.229
The Home team averages 2.14 ppm in the last 5 games, and the road teams average 2.18 ppm
their combined 4.32 ppm does beat beat the needed 4.229. If the teams maintain their average ppm over the last 5 the final score would be 207.36 w/o overtime.

I am taking the over 203.


The .091 difference between the average vs. needed is the median of the difference data that I have collected. Also, Every difference that has been greater has gone over, and every difference less than has pushed or gone under.

[Reek's bathwater]

I like the analysis and your on a nice roll so keep it up. But NBA totals especially playoffs are extremely sharp and a total crapshoot, blind luck may be the biggest factor. Last night was a perfect example. If Allen dribbles the clock out like most teams do 90% of the time it stays under. Pacers don't score a point in basically an entire qtr yet somehow game still doesnt stay under. Crapshoot.

Thanks, and I agree blind luck will decide most of the games. At the same time though if you bet long enough shouldn't luck eventually come around to be close to 50/50?

i would go "BIG" on 2 games, $15 and $15....

dont waste time betting your $1 and $2 bets

I don't look at the dollar amount. I bet units, and look at percentage of bankroll growth to see how I am doing. I do hope to be making $15 bets someday though.

[Reek's bathwater]

Okay, this is my breakdown of Thunder @ Grizz over/under. line is 187 where I bet at this time.

Grizz= home team / Thunder= Road

1) head to head total average for the entire season is 190.6 and 184.6 for the last three match-ups.

2)Road team average total ppg on the road for the season 205 (8 over)

3)Home team average total ppg while at home for the season 180.2 (6.8 under)

4)Road last five total ppg 198 (11 over)

5)Home last five total ppg 194.4 (7.4 over)

6)Average of total ppg for both team's last 5 combined 197.2 (10.2 over)

7) points needed per minute per team to reach the line = 3.895
The Home team averages 2.15 ppm in the last 5 games, and the road teams average 2.05 ppm
their combined 4.2 ppm does beat beat the needed 3.895. If the teams maintain their average ppm over the last 5 the final score would be 201.6.

I am taking the over 187.

[SpreadSniper]

I don't look at the dollar amount. I bet units, and look at percentage of bankroll growth to see how I am doing. I do hope to be making $15 bets someday though.

I started off making $5 bets.... now it's 100/game. Gotta start somewhere and no sense getting your feet wet with bigger money if you aren't comfortable

[Aye J Mac]

This kid is interesting ! Good luck newbie

[GoBlue77]

Thats how you win. Get as much useful data as possible.

myth. complete opposite actually.

honestly, people that rely on stats really shouldn't bet because it displays a lack of knowledge of sports. situational betting is > than any stat. only losers mess with nba totals, case in point.

[Aussiefalconfan]

OKC +10.5
Over 181

Parlayed at EV