Well, I've been around here for awhile now and whether it was actually learning something about betting or laughing at some of the trolls here, most of the time I would say this site as amused me. With that said, my english has become a little bit rusty as of late (not my first language) and I thought creating a thread here and post some little write-ups and maybe start some nice discussion would be good.
I ended the season only 3 units up which was disappointing for me, but the playoffs have been the only time I've made some good money betting (11 units last year, 15 units in '11) so I hope I'll do a little bit good now. So far I've basically gone even, up about .7 after going 4-3 so far. I always use flat stake and I will surely have some double and even triple dime plays.
Golden State Warriors @ Denver Nuggets
Over 208
- 110
I've locked this at 207 but most bookies are either at 207.5 or 208 now which I still think has value and actually makes me happy. I will be likely getting a lot of unders in the playoffs, but this is just a bad line in my opinion. I know the last game didn't even make it to 200 but there were a lot of easy shots missed and some careless play. The pace of that game was 100 (always use basketball-ref. formula) which is huge even for these two teams. I don't expect this to change tonight.
The Warriors might look to involve Bogut more now in the half-court and they miss a great defensive rebounder and outlet passer in Lee. But with that said I don't see any benefit in them trying to slow the pace down, unless they are completely red hot from the perimeter and if that happens, the points should be coming in bunches anyway.
On the other hand I think Denver will get 110 at least tonight. They will keep pushing the tempo has obviously and this time around they should not lose the rebounding battle, even with Faried likely not starting. They took far too many threes the other game and I expect them too be even more aggressive these time and also to be getting to the foul line a lot (let's hope Bogut gets in trouble).
With that said I see these game going either one of two ways: another amazingly high paced game getting close to 100 possessions where this line than would be almost impossible not to bet, or a little slower game where the Warriors try to milk more clock but only because they are able to execute their half-court offense and say get to half-time with 50 or more points on the board. If the Nuggets come out blazing from the get go there will come a time where the Warriors will just have to go into high pace as well cause you're not gonna catch the Nuggets by hosting 2 shots per minute.
I bet on Boston in the first game and I will do it again here. I would also like to get on the under on this one but I'll probably pass because this teams can easily get hot this time around and I already cashed the under on that terrible line in game 1.
In my opinion this series will only be done in 7 games and every one of them will be a hard thought battle. With that said, I dont even think that this Knicks team, with all their veterans always a little banged up, and still being so dependent on 'Melo/JR and the three ball is that much better talent wise than the Celtics. Paul Pierce, Doc, Garnett will never give it up and you add to that Jason Terry, the ability to defend of Bradley and even Lee, plus the energy and versatility offensively Green is finally able to bring and I think the Knicks will need to grind every game out.
This should be another slow paced game and I always look for big spreads in this types of battles. Although 7 is not that much, is still a lot, specially a lot to be given to a team that has a captain that has always raved about playing on the road and specially at MSG. If the Celtics don't have another break down I even think they can still one here on the road. Plus, lets not forget the big guys for the Knicks, Chandler and Martin, who seem to be one clash away with a Boston defender of being out of the game. Therefore, I think there's every value in taking the + 7 as this should be another close win at best for the Knicks. If it's a blowout, the boxscore will probably have either a crazy 3 point shooting number or 50 points from 'Melo... I'm fine with battling that. GL all.
Terrible bet made by me last night, should have just betted the double with the Pacers and Spurs, was definetly asking to lose that one by including OKC. of to next one...
Last edited by JM92; 04-26-13 at 10:01 AM.
Reason: had -0.20 on the playoffs units where it should be - 1.20.
This one all about pace and the Heat mentality. I think they will control the game and slow it down, try not to let the crowd get involved and not let Bucks scorers get hot which might turn into a larger headache for them than what this game should be all about. That said, Bucks shot pretty well last game and still wasn't enough to even reach 90, so I wouldn't be surprised to cash this even if the Heat get to 100. As long as Bucks limit their turnovers, just like they did all season long and in the last game, there shouldn't be much fastbreaking either. Therefore these seems to big a line.
Clippers @ Grizzlies
Clippers + 4.5
-110
Wow, 4.5 really? I know the opener was 4 and the line is moving against me but I will take it. I believe the Clippers will win at least one of these games and even if its not this one, Im still getting almost 5 points. The Grizz offense is just too weak and lacking a 1x1 force (Conley should not repeat that outburst of game 2) right now for them to be taken seriously for a deep run in these series by me. If the offensive boards are not their like in game 1, they are in big trouble. Hope to see the Clipps come out strong and at least keep this one close throughout.
Expected the refs to be all over the grizz, did not expect such a poor game from Cp3 and the rest of the Clippers guards. Got lucky on the Heat game though, lucky to have a push with that pace.
Well, for me this is simple: the Lakers don't have any of their four guards whom, apart from Kobe, are not spectacular at any rate to being with (Nash is one my favorite players all time, but c'mon now...). With this said, and unless Goudelock or Morris get super powers overnight, I think this is going to be a pretty good frontcourt, against a pretty good team. The Lakers have turned it over a lot in the first game and did not get enough offensive rebounds... yet, even with a poor effort from the Spurs offense they still won. Second game, they got huge offensive rebounding numbers, limited their turnovers, got a above average shooting night for them (at least for their roster) and the Spurs turned it up and still won by 11.
This basically comes down to pitty and I don't think the Spurs will have any. Just like last year against Utah, which also had the big guys inside to affect the Spurs and certainly a better all-around supporting cast than this Lakers have, I think the Spurs will end up finishing this in four by winning either on offense or on defense. That said, 5 points is still something... I just think this is going to end up maybe not even being close. The Lakers will probably try to slow it down and make Gasol + Howard go for 50 points together or something like that and pray that the rest of the bunch can fight and knock down threes. But they will, for sure, have lots of problems taking care of the ball without any of their usual guards and the Spurs will surely capitalize on that. The Lakers are also not even superior in half-court basketball. Yes, I can see Howard and Gasol having an edge over Duncan and Splitter, but Parker will do what he want's with Morris and the cutters and shooters for the Spurs should get great looks all night long.
I don't think the Lakers can keep it close for 48 minutes, maybe 2 or 3 quarters if they can get Gasol and Howard going and out of foul trouble but in the end the Spurs are just way much better for a 5 point line, even knowing the refs will be on the Lakers side all night long.
This two teams are now averaging 100 possesions each per game. No reason to think the pace is going to slow down. Even if Curry's out, there's still only one chance for the Warriors to win as they proved in game 2. Denver might try to slow it down to change things up but even if they do I think they'll end up getting tempted to go the fast pace ways again.
Still think the Clippers will get one game in Memphis. Paul should be much better and while homecourt will be homecourt at the Fedex, the referees should probably have a lesser effect for the Memphis side this time around.
Pacers the better team here, more physical and more able to play in the half-court and control the tempo. I think they also have a psychological edge now and will take this one or the next in atlanta.
I think the pace here doesn't change for this game as the Celtics try to have their old guys last throughout the whole game and at least go down with some dignity. I thought this series was going to be way closer and this era of the Celtics probably ends here (proving that in fact it ended when Allen went away), but I think they wont go down without a fight and will try to grind this one out.
Basically the same write-up I've been giving. Might have a play on the sides here too.
Spurs @ Lakers
Spurs -11
-110
Well, this is a huge line, but the Lakers team is really, really done. Everyone that steps on the floor for the Spurs will work hard and know what to do while on the other hand they'll have equally talented players at best that already know they are dead. I would not even be surprised to see Howard and Gasol sit down a lot if the game isn't close throughout. Spurs should get another big win here.
First really good night of the playoffs for me as if not for the ot would have been 3-0 and games went the way I was thinking. Hoping to start racking them units up from now on.
I believe the playoffs are the right time to bet heavily on the best teams when they are on the road and not when they are at home (where usually they have to do more than winning). And here we have a perfect case of team in the Pacers who I consider to be fairly superior to the Hawks and who wants to make a statement after getting embarrassed last time out. The Pacers woke up after this game if you go and read what Vogel and West and to say, they were a little careless but they are now eager to start game 4. They still dominated the boards and got to the line in game 4, they just forgot to take care of the ball and shot ever so poorly. While the Pacers are not a good shooting team, the Hawks are not that good a team in forcing tough shots and these should not happen again tonight. If the Pacers can take care of the ball, which I think they will because of the focus they will bring into this one, they have everything to make a statement, not only winning this game but doing so in strong fashion, therefore covering that 5 point spread. I rather use the teaser and bet half a unit than bet 2 units on the + 2 or the ML, but either way is good in this situation, I just think that they will really put the clamps on the Hawks and this won't even be a close game, so I rather risk less money with the teaser than risk 2 units.
I have a future on the Bulls 4-2. So, assuming the Bulls win the next one as I think they will, this is almost like adding another unit to a bet I already made. Still, I think this is the perfect situation. Hinrich is the key here. The job he did on Williams was absolute key to them winning game 2 and 3. The Nets dominated a huge part of game 4 and then Nate Robinson happen. Usually, Nate Robinson happen's once on the good side, and the happens on the wrong side. Ups and downs have defined his career and while he won the Bulls some games this year, he has also lost them a few. I think this is the perfect letdown spot for Chicago and I think the Nets will prove themselves the stronger team here. They should be fired up for the crowd, because of how they lost game 4 and also because this is, really, a must-win. Chicago is a banged up team who just went as high as you can go in a first round series after that huge win at home and I think they will take a tumble tonight.
Wow. 25-3 run against the Pacers in the first half was the worst ball I've seen them play under Vogel. Obviously doesn't help that the other team is on fire, but even so, this would have been at least a close game and never a dominant win for the Pacers. They were actually lucky to score 40 in the first half with the way they were playing.
This is where we are going to see what George karl and the Nuggets are all about and, although I did have GSW has a possible upset, I think the Nuggets are really better than this. They have been taking care of the ball and getting to the free throw line at will so far, yet, there problem has been getting the offensive boards (they'll never get a better efg% than the Warriors through 7 games, but that's obvious). What they have been lacking is the rebounding edge. Yet, in the last game, they finally manage to get that edge. I think they will do it again tonight. I don't know if there's going to be any changes to the pace of the game, but either way I know with guys like Miller, Faried, Iguodala among others, this team should have enough heart to bust their asses out today. Now they obviously have to limit the Warriors hooting, but golden state can't just keep these up through the rest of the series. I think Karl will finally man up and make some adjustments on defense, like changing Iggy on to Steph Curry and stop double teaming so much. 7 points are still a lot, I know, but if the Nuggets have the same numbers on the boards and turnovers as they did last game and if the Warriors do slow down their shooting like I expect them too, they could very well get a double digit win on this one.
The thunder should wrap this up at home and I don't even see how much could be spoken here. As to the Pacers, unlike the Clippers they actually proven to me they are indeed the better team. I expect them to regain their edge here and go back to David West on the block and muscle down the Hawks. Atlanta would need to be crazy on fire from the perimeter all game to win tonight in my mind. Im making this a 2 unit play as I usually do with these kinds of bets. This is not a make it or break it play for me but I've been waiting to see If I could get good odds on these teasers since both game 4s of this series and I will definitely be disappointed if one team does not come true.
No need to write this up again. Might also play the Warriors though.
Nets @ Bulls
Nets ML
+100
Too many injuries on the Bulls. The Nets are the better team right now and have been since half-time of game 4 in regulation. Unless another guy goes crazy on the Bulls, its back to Brooklyn.
Was alreay thinking about this one 'cuz I still can't believe Francisco Garcia has made 14 3s in the playoffs and I think this will be a cold game for the Rockets, now Delfino is out, I think the Thunder finish this up.
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