TLDR- In Depth Analysis of Game 2 between Grizz and Clip Show

After the 112-91 Clipper massacre of the Grizzlies on Saturday, most people will be on L.A. -6 to cover. Sports betting 101 teaches us that the public is usually wrong. And though that view is overly simplistic, it holds merit more than 50% of the time. This is not the main reason why you should back the Grizzlies on the road tonight, but every little reason does help. The real reason is stated in an article I just read on ESPN Insider. And while ESPN is a standard square website to get your information from, the insider articles are very well written. Of course, ESPN doesn’t speak about sports betting, so you must extrapolate the conclusion on your own, but connecting the dots takes about one mental push up and you’re done.

The skinny about Memphis is this, the Grizzlies are better than they were last year. The Rudy Gay trade, which sent Tayshuan Prince to Memphis and Gay to Toronto, improved their squad. Memphis became 3.5 points per 100 possessions more efficient, which is a stunning improvement when you just traded away your leading scorer. Not only that, but this trade caused a paradigm shift in every statistical category of the Grizzlies’ team. Their effective field goal percentage improved by 2.1 percent. Their foul-drawing rate improved by over three percent, and their turnovers were cut down by 1.4 percentage. Of course, with every trade there will be some sacrifices, the Grizzlies offensive rebounding prowess took a hit and fell by 3.5 percent. Only to have their rate of assisted baskets jump by 3.4 percent. I know there are a ton of numbers here to digest, but the conclusion is that Memphis is getting different shots with different people. So what Memphis players benefited from this January trade?

Tayshaun Prince averages nearly seven fewer shots per game than Rudy Gay. Given that, someone on the Grizzlies must be attempting more shots. Let’s see if we can find out who. Zach Randolph is actually taking fewer shots, while Marc Gasol’s field goal attempts jumped about a half a shot. Meanwhile, Mike Conley’s numbers have barely moved, but it was Jerryd Bayless that benefited from Gay’s departure. He has been averaging six more minutes per game and his field goal attempts have doubled. Doubled! A third of Bayless’ shots come from three point range, a range that Bayless has been converting at a 38% clip since February 1st. He is the biggest reason for Memphis’ offensive improvement since the trade.

So now we know how the Grizzlies team has changed, but what happened during Game 1? It wasn’t the Memphis offense that lost the game, in fact, the game was played very slow with only 83 possessions for Memphis. That should favor the stalwart defense of the Beale street blue right? It did! Memphis averaged 1.1 points on those possessions, you can do some quick math but that comes out to 91.3 points. Their effective field goal percentage of 50% was better than their post-Gay season average. And Memphis shot almost 42% from beyond the arc, converting 5 out of 12. The Grizzlies posted a better offensively efficient game in 31 of their 82 regular season games. They won 30 of those match ups. In fact, before Saturdays miserable loss, Memphis was 37-1 when they put up an offensive rating of 107.4 or better (their offensive rating was 111.8 during Game 1). Now we know the problem wasn’t with their offense, now let’s look at their defense.

The Grizzlies had four offensive rebounds for the whole game, posting it’s worst percentage for the season. During the regular season, they were ranked as the 2nd best rebounding team in the league. But the Clippers grabbed 14 of 33 possible offensive rebounds and outscored the Grizz 25-5 in second chance points. Neither Randolph nor Gasol managed to get an offensive board, not one. To show you how amazing that is, guess who led the NBA in offensive rebounding this year? You guessed it, Zack Randolph with 4.1 a game (tied with Tyson Chandler). Marc Gasol came in at 30th in the league with 2.3 offensive rebounds a game.

DeAndre Jordan and Blake Griffin won the rebounding match up against Randolph and Gasol, but it was their reaction to the referees that won them the game. Admittedly, the three man team of referees called the game very tight. A total of 57 fouls were assessed, 29 for Memphis and 28 for the Clip show. Griffin and Jordan didn’t take their foot off the gas though as they pounded the glass, Griffin was so aggressive during this game he managed to be the only player to foul out. During the fourth quarter, the Clippers grabbed 11 of 12 off of Memphis’ glass and scored eight of their ten fast break points. Eric bledsoe shined in the fourth, making all six of his shots as he paved the way to victory road.

How does all this bode well for Memphis? Well first off, Randolph and Gasol will rebound much better this game. There is no way they fall victim to the same mistakes as Game 1. Lionel Hollins is a good coach and will make all the necessary adjustments, with an extra emphasis on hitting the boards. Historically, teams that get embarrassed in Game 1, respond back with a good performance in Game 2. Now I won’t go as far as to say Memphis will win Game 2, although the money line of +225 has value. Meaning Memphis will win this game more than 31% of the time (probably closer to 50% of the time). But I feel comfortable laying the 6 points and watching Gasol and Randolph battle it out with Jordan and Griffin. And don’t be surprised if Jerryd Bayless has another solid performance as well.

Memphis Grizzlies +6 over Los Angeles Clippers