[dontknowhowtobet]

Previous games played:

• November 7, 2012 - IND 86 @ ATL 89 (175 pts in total)
• December 29, 2012 - IND 100 @ ATL 109 (209 pts in total)
• February 5, 2013 - ATL 103 @ IND 114 (217 pts in total)
• March 25, 2013 - ATL 94 @ IND 100 (194 pts in total)

There was only one game in November last year ended in 175 pts and that was in Atlanta, not in Indiana.

I am trying to cap this one really hard, because the odds on the NBA are far better ones than the ones for Tennis with Nadal or Djoker today (if no one was mentioning the "ankle" for Djokovic I would have backed him but it's impossible to back him when everyone says he got medical issues with his ankle)

For some reason Accuscore maybe "explains" the reason:

http://accuscore.com/game-forecast-p...na-pacers-1048

ATL on the road made only 42% of OVERs. (In the past 30 days 44%)
IND at home is around the 50% of OVERs. (incl. the past 30 days)

And so according to Accuscore the game is trending UNDER.

On the other hand for OVER backers, original line was 184.5 and it went up by 1 point in Vegas to 185.5, but in practice we know it doesn't mean alot.

UNDER backers could rely on the fact the 2nd game of the series is already set with a line of 183, so there coule be some expectations here for an early UNDER game.

I tried to find some more explanation behind this "low line" especially considering the fact these 2 teams scored against each other in average much more than 185 ... so from the NBC Sports website:

http://probasketballtalk.nbcsports.c...ndiana-pacers/

"I expect the Pacers to get their defensive groove back and smother the Hawks, but that’s the key. If the Pacers play like they did the last 10 or so games of the season — if they don’t defend — the Hawks will be right in this series... I just don’t see that happening. I see physical, low scoring, grinding gams that are exactly the way the Pacers want them. I see their defense just throwing a blanket over the Hawks while Paul George and David West give them enough to win."


I'd be honest with you I don't like capping the playoff because the same game needs to be capped at a similar line again in a few days, and so it's quite hard to find the right trend.

I tend to believe this game would go UNDER going with the NBC's version that this game would be very defensive. I've watched Golden State playing yesterday against Denver and they played very defensive ending with 20+ points far away from the origina line in terms of UNDER (but you can mention Memphs and the Clippers, who scored over 200 points on a line of 178.5, so as I said, the playoffs are much harder to cap)

If you got more insight you would like to share for this game that starts in about 2 hours from now please feel free to.....

Thanks!

[vancityswag]

flip a coin

[BigDeem5]

Hammer the over.

[captrobey]

Went all in with the Over numbers point that way

[HustleGetPaid]

Playoff ball, but I do think this will go over...

[captrobey]

Great First Qtr for the Over

[captrobey]

Over looking good need 78 more to hit the Over .