[Tofudog]

Edit: Changed Houston to OKC lean, so maybe 3 dogs, 5 favs

Feel free to disagree, but I am liking these plays for each of the first games..

-Boston Celtics +7 : I like Boston but I just don't see them winning the series. They will certainly put up a fight and they know how to make a statement

-Golden State Warriors +7.5 : See above statement

-Brooklyn Nets -4.5 : I was never a believer in the Nets this whole season but it looks like they really got it together in the last few weeks before the playoffs. They also dismantled the Pacers throughout the season and the Bulls are a similar and less talented team with a subpar road record (21-20)

Los Angeles Clippers -5: The loss of Rudy Gay is bigger than any analyst seems to give them credit for. Tayshaun Prince is not playoff material and Z-Bo's lack of height will be taken advantage of by Deandre Jordan and Blake Griffin. DJ will make a statement to his value to the Clippers in this series. Chris Paul will take more than one shot before the 4th quarter and really even the scoring, making it more difficult on Memphis to gaurd them. The bench for the Clips is way better and has more championship experience as well

Indiana Pacers -6.5 : Indiana is still a grossly underrated team. Their depth comes close, if not matches the Spurs, Heat, and Nuggets. Hawks have one of the worst benches. Atlanta is a hot and cold team, and do not know how to buckle down and play defense when it gets tough. Josh Smith will still take long jumpers and 3 pointers. Al Horford has the chance to spread the defense with his shooting ability, but the lack of aggression from the team in general will not take as much advantage as they could

San Antonio Spurs -8.5 : Lakers might be hyped up for the playoffs but their game plan will be much worse than the one for the Spurs. The difference between Spurs home record and Lakers road record is way too great. Coach Pop has done exactly what he wanted, he has kept their team under the radar while resting players, and if there is one team in the NBA that can rest without rust this is them. I still don't understand why they are underrated every year

Milwaukee Bucks +13 is just too much!

OKC/Houston : I have no clue! Leaning OKC.. What does everyone think?

[Tofudog]

I don't understand what the point of me posting is? I think 9/10 times I have posted a thread, not a single person responded to it.

I guess its the dipshits claiming lock of the century that get the attention..

[Quake]

Hard to argue with any of those. Seems like a lot of points for SA though, I'm not really sure what the injury situation is currently but that is definitely one game I will be watching only.

[ws81086n]

I actually have the Knicks to cover in a big parlay, and I now regret it. Not sure I'm thrilled about Boston to cover, either, but it's probs more likely. Agree on the Warriors and Nets, disagree big time on the Clips. I think Memphis to cover + the under is the best two-way parlay for the Gm 1's. Spurs-Lakers is tough to call, though I would lean Lakers to cover, given their momentum, possible return of Nash. +13 is indeed a lot for the Bucks, but it's really not enough. +15 and I might have bitten at it. One thing I will say, though, is that if the Heat demolish the Sucks in Gm. 1, I'll be taking a good look at the Sucks to cover in Gm. 2, since the line will reflect Gm 1's result and the Sucks will be out looking to prove something.

[Tofudog]

Yeah I think I agree about the Bucks ws.. As I was making the write up I kinda started changing my mind about the OKC/HOU game and the MIA/MIL...

I think maybe the best thing is to layoff the heat. From past playoff experience, it always seems like every favorite should win, and its simply not the case. 13 does seem huge but its just large enough to draw some money on them even though they might get blown out. To me, those kind of lines are betting two black and white possibilities. Either the game stays close and you feel great about the extra points near the end or its a blowout. Miami is like that. They either win by a few or they will win by 20..

Im not feeling great about the BG/Gasol matchup but BG has gotten so much better in this past year and hes a bona fide player now.. He just wont get many run out dunks. As far as Z-Bo is concerned, Ill be surprised if he averages over 14 pts a game.. where will they get their scoring?

[convick]

Spurs remind me of the 2011 team that lost in the 1st round to Memphis. They went 4-8 down the stretch then and lost in 6 to the Grizzlies.

This year they have gone 10-10 over their last 20 and have had some head-scratching losses at home. They were also 4-16 ATS. Additionally, they cant win on the road at all. I dont buy the resting theory since weve seen the Heat beat-up on anyone and everyone with their B and C teams.

I like Memphis over the Clippers but dont have much thought about the rest of the others yet.