NOTE: Since as far as I know no site does us the courtesy of publishing Pinny closing lines, for recordkeeping purposes we're left to rely on the last jump that we (I) saw. I"ll call it as straight as I can, but it's less than perfect.
For actual betting purposes of course, we can do whatever we want.
Tuesday night HOU/IND closed at 3.5 and 170/160, so for the record HOU is a qualifying play and an ATS loser, although there was as high as +9 available for some of the day.
(And I had a nice middle!! ).
Saw +345 on the last flash for the MEM ML, so the Griz didn't qualify.
Saw +205 at the end on PHI, so they qualify, barely.
Same with NJ.
NOK qualified for much of the day but not at the end, so no go.
Missed the DAL-CHA close and so have no idea whether the last number closest to -105 juice was +13 or +13.5, but Wagerline says 13 and Don Best mostly says 13 so I'm being conservative and calling it 13, for a push. ( I had +13 +103 and feel like an idiot.)
And on and on.
If you're actually trying to play these plays, my suggestion for when it looks like it will end up near the strike price borderline would be to play some portion of your normal play and get the best available number whenever you see it -- early, late, whenever. It'll all balance out.
I'll make arbitrary calls about where things closed based on what I saw (some will be good for the bottom line, some not so good). Over hundreds of plays, we'll end up in roughly the same place no matter what.
EDGAR LINE vs THE FINAL NUMBER
(playing all teams whose estimated win % is 5% or more higher in the Edgar line than in the closing Pinny line)
SAME TEAMS ATS (at 1* each)
Tuesday 3-4-1, -1.20u YTD 164-139 (.538), +18.05u
POWER RATINGS OVER LAST 10 GAMES
1 DAL 67
2 PHX 67
3 WAS 64
4 MIL 63
5 CHI 62
6 DET 61
7 SAN 58
8 LAX 58
9 MIA 54
10 GS 53
11 HOU 53
12 DEN 53
13 UTH 52
14 POR 51
15 MIN 50
16 TOR 49
17 NJ 49
18 IND 49
19 SEA 46
20 SAC 46
21 PHI 45
22 CLE 44
23 BOS 42
24 LAC 40
25 NY 40
26 MEM 39
27 ORL 38
28 CHA 38
29 ATL 36
30 NOK 30
EDGAR LINES FOR 12.27.06
(favorite-spread/ML-dog)
CHA 0.6/105 over CHA
ATL 3.5/144 over CLE
TOR 4.6/169 over MIN
ORL 0.5/104 over LAX
NJ 4.5/167 over HOU
NY 1.9/120 over DET
MEM 1.6/114 over MIL
CHI 5.0/178 over MIA
SAC 5.1/180 over PHI
POR 8.0/331 over NOK
LAC 4.5/167 over BOS
STRIKE PRICES
(at this ML or better, team is a play both SU and ATS under 5%-OFF method)
CORRECTED numbers for tomorrow now in the first post.
In my rush to go to bed I did not make the standard additional adjustment for each of the BxB home teams. BxB home teams are not hurt by the no-rest games as much as BxB road teams. So CHA, NJ, MEM, CHI, POR, and LAC should have had a slight additional adjustment. And now they do.
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Jay Edgar NBA, Wednesday 12.27.06
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